The Halladay Two-Step

by jscape2000 on Jul 14, 2009 9:03 AM EDT

I've been quiet about the All-Star starting pitcher while I considered my position.

I was against a Santana trade because I wanted to see Hughes develop and I didn't like the subsequent hole in center field.

I voted to wait on C.C.'s free agency.

But I would trade for Roy Hallady.

The quick hit reasons:

1) the rumors revolve around hitters (Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson), and since the Yanks usually field a group of All-Stars around the diamond there's not as much room for a young hitter to work his way onto the team as for a pitcher (see the difference between Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli vs Phil Hughes);

2) I'm more protective of AAA prospects than A prospects- I didn't want to trade Joba or Hughes because they were so close to contributing; in addition to the lack of a spot for Jesus Montero (and he's not a catcher unless you thought Mike Piazza was Gold Glove worthy), he's still only logged 119PA at AA and is still a few years from major league ready.

3) trading for C.C. or Santana would have been the first piece of the rotation, but the 2009 rotation is much stronger than recent years, so Halladay would represent a tipping point from competitive to dominant.

All of that comes with the knowledge that if JP Ricciardi can't figure out a way to send Halladay to the NL he deserves to be tarred and feathered. Halladay should never be moved within the division.

And, courtesy of LoHud, here's the bait and switch- Ricciardi says he'll listen to offers, fields the phone calls, and talks about July 31st. But Halladay's not moving before the deadline, because the classic unnamed source says:

the Toronto Blue Jays will not allow any interested team to negotiate with a player should a trade be agreed upon prior to the July 31 trading deadline

So play this game for a minute: you're Roy Halladay, most consistent pitcher in baseball. You are the Toronto Blue Jays. You have a no-trade clause. Why are you going to waive it without a payday?

Now flip the switch and become Brian Cashman: let's imagine you're willing to part with Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and Dellin Betances. Are you willing to let them go without the security that Halladay is a long term investment?

My prediction is that Halladay doesn't move at the deadline; instead, during the offseason Ricciardi chooses between the best packages from the Dodgers, Phillies, and maybe the Cubs or Giants.

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Comments

It's hard to say at this point

And I think the longer Ricciardi waits, the less he gets.

I think the Johan Santana trade is important precedent here. The Twins asked for a lot from both the Yankees and the Red Sox, but here’s what they wound up getting from the Mets:

Carlos Gomez – “5-tool” outfielder with poor on-base skills – 22 years old at time of trade
Phil Humber – 25 year old AAA pitcher at time of trade
Kevin Mulvey – 22 year old AA pitcher at time of trade, 62 round draft pick in 2006
Deolis Guerra – 18 years old, in Rookie League at time of trade

Gomez was the centerpiece of the deal, yet at the time of the trade, he had never shown even decent plate discipline in the minors nor had he ever slugged above .427. Granted, he was much younger than the competition, but plate discipline is plate discipline, and baseball history is littered with prospects who struck out three times for every walk in the minors, and never amounted to much in the majors. Gomez is still only 23, but in nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances, he’s got a sub .300 OBP. He’s still young, but you’d expect to see SOMETHING at this point.

I don’t think the Dodgers want to take on Halladay’s salary (remember, they paid $0 to add Manny and Casey Blake last year), the Giants are already paying one pitcher $17 million a year and have another on the way to that number (although Lincecum actually deserves it). The Cubs couldn’t add Jake Peavy’s salary. I think the Phillies are the only NL contender that legitimately needs Halladay and might give something close to what Ricciardi is asking for. If I’m any other GM, though, I’m probably going to sit and wait.

by 3460kuri on Jul 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

A distinction

between the Twins and Jays is that it was clear that the Twins did not want to trade Santana within the AL. They were willing to trade for less to ship him to the NL. There was only one buyer in the NL-the Mets who support the second highest payroll in baseball. On the other hand Ricciardi is a Beane disciple. Beane’s philosophy is to make your team better and disregard the issue of who you are dealing with. Thus it is possible that the Jays would be more open to trading within the AL and possibly (but perhaps less likely) even within the division.

Eitherway, I agree that the Phillies are the top buyer. Riccardi has stated that they will not let teams negotiate with Halladay before a deal-this will only drive the price up. The Giants need a bat not an arm, and Halladay has a full no trade and wants to pitch for a contender. Given all of that, the Phils make the most sense.

by Buzzy on Jul 14, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

the only thing that would make the Phillies balk it seems

is if the Jays insist on taking Wells back. His splits say he just needs a change of scenery, but why break up their excellent OF?

His contract would be a lot for a backup even if it meant taking back the best pitcher in baseball.

If I were teh Phillies Id be getting it done already. Their rotation is ASS and with Halladay they’d be running away with the NL East.

Imagine Halladay in the NL? Facing the Mets, Marlins and Nationals mostly too?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Another precedent is the CC trade

The Tribe netted Matt LaPorta, the 7th overall pick, for Sabathia. CC was an impending FA. Halladay has another year on his contract. The Jays should get more for Halladay than the Indians got for Sabathia (assuming Halladay gets dealt. I have my doubts).

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 14, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Also you might add

that Halladay’s in his own class of pitchers.

Its like the Cardinals made Albert Pujols available for some reason.

I don’t even think there’s that much of a ‘discount’ like the Red Sox did with Beckett and Lowell (tho that was a pretty nice haul to the Marlins too) if a team takes back Wells..unless they just really hate Vernon Wells or are 100% sure they have a better player there or are getting one back from the other team (would probably mean Ellsbury or Austin Jackson are requirements for any Red Sox or Yankee deal.)

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Not so sure

that Halladay should be worth a dime more than CC. I know Yankee fans would probably disagree (especially since Halladay seems very successful against NY), but CC is younger and has been more durable. As for pitching, their FIPs are really, really similar, and they both go deep in games. I think a good case can be made that CC is more valuable than Roy. Thus, indeed (leaving the Wells issue aside) the Jays should look for something like what the Tribe got for CC. I am not sure that the Phils have any prospect that comes close to LaPorta, but I could be wrong. Maybe Carrasco? Probably not.

by Buzzy on Jul 14, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess its probably

since when I see Halladay against the Yanks, I just see the GOAT pitcher in there.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Halladay

I’ve said all along I just don’t see him being traded.

The Jays are legit contenders when they get the 3 pitchers back on the team. Those 3 pitchers may not be Hughes type prospects (Dustin Mcgowan is at the least, probably better, Marcum and Litsch are damn good too) but they are all 3 young pitchers who did quite well at the MLB level before their injuries.

I mean they are pretty big injures, but they are pretty much missing the entire season so they should have plenty of time to recover.

I just can’t see the Jays trading away Halladay before getting those guys back next season to see what sort of team they are. They have a nice lineup, and by next season should Rios and Wells actually perform up to their talent level, they could be scary.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

As for Halladay not a long term investment...

they have him for next season too with his current contract. Id think that’s ample time to try and hash out a new one no?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

Maybe in another city

But can you imagine the media asking Halladay every day why no extension yet? It’ll be like the Arod opt out all over again.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 14, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Halladay Trade ...

I’ve been sitting on the fence with this one. Halladay is of course a stud, and would immediately make ANY team—even the Nationals a better team. But I struggle with the fact that he’s got another year. I’d hate to see the Yankees get burned—dumping guys like Montero or Romine, Hughes and even Jackson to land a guy we might not get to keep. In that regard, I’d prefer to wait—allowing our farm talent to mature … or rot, depending on how one looks at the situation.

That said, with Wang ineffective and hurt, Joba ineffective (and doing the best Jaret Wright impersonation I’ve ever seen—not being able to get past the 5th), and the Yankees seemingly unwilling to move Hughes to the rotation, perhaps we do need to find a quality arm. Halladay certainly fits the bill, but at what cost?

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Jul 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

dont 4get

if he does leave for free agency the Yankees get extra draft picks.

"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"

by Da Shiz on Jul 14, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Some differences in trade targets:

CC was only for a half year and Santana was for a full year, while Halladay would be for 1.5 years. Also, a deal for Santana pretty much required a contract extension, wiping out any cost savings his current contract included and eliminated the option to receive draft picks when he walks (well, puts it off 7+ years).

Given that the Jays are competitive this year and should be competitive next year, it’s not as if Halladay’s current production is being wasted, meaning the Jays don’t have any reason to accept less than full value in a trade. Full value means returning production at a savings of $30+ dollars over free agent prices. That’s about an A and B+ position player prospect, an A position and A pitcher prospect, or a top notch position player adjusting quite nicely to MLB in their first year in the bigs, somewhere between Colby Rasmus and Justin Upton.

I disagree about Halladay being a tipping point from a good to great rotation being a reason to target him. The Yankees already have too many starters (well, as long as Wang is healthy) and acquiring another one pushes a good pitcher out of the rotation. That’s wasted talent and the Yankees wouldn’t be receiving as large an upgrade to the rotation compared to replacing some shmuck with Halladay.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions

all true

by Buzzy on Jul 14, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with most of what you said

But the Yanks don’t have too many starters. With Wang out there’s an open spot now, and Andy could finally retire at the end of the year.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 14, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Hughes should have the open spot, no?

Still a spot for next year I guess, although if Pettitte’s still rolling, why retire?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess

the reason Yankee fans would disagree with you (not saying you are wrong-in fact I agree with you) is that their starting pitching has been dissapointing. By both traditional and advanced metrics Yankee starters have been near the bottom of the league. Given that this was supposed to be one of the top rotations in all of baseball, you can understand the issue.

by Buzzy on Jul 14, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

HOLLIDAY?

DO NOT TRADE AWAY THE FARM FOR HOLIDAY HUGES,IS GOING TOO BE REAL GOOD.DO NOT TRADE AWAY JESUS,AUSTIN JACKSON EITHER.YANKS NEED CENT. FEILDER NEXT YEAR?BAD MOVE.THINK BACK?

by JEETS on Jul 14, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

Matt Holliday

is an OFer with Oakland. Roy Halladay is a pitcher for Toronto.

by Travis G on Jul 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

looks like u beat me by 1 minute.

by bforce3 on Jul 14, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

how come you talk him seriously

How could anyone who types in ALL CAPS be taken seriously?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

i wonder if this guys ever watched a yankee game cause clearly the outfield is not the most urgent issue. having 2/5 starters being productive is a problem

by bforce3 on Jul 14, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

u seem to be posting in the wrong forums. we are talking about roy hAlladay…

by bforce3 on Jul 14, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

You need to remember that sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.

For example. if the Twins traded Johan to the Red Sox instead of the Mets for Lester + Ellsbury.. the Red Sox would be winners… right?

Johan 2008: 4.8 WAR
Johan 2009 :2.0 WAR

Lester 2008: 5.1 WAR
Lester 2009 :3.6 WAR

Then there’s the epic Erik Bedard trade. but I’m fairly confident that Cashman isn’t THAT dumb.

by RollingWave on Jul 14, 2009 11:21 PM EDT reply actions

Very good point.
But Halladay has shown none of the diminished velocity or control that Santana was showing at the end of his time with the Twinkies.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jul 14, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

He was also 3+ years younger, with a better actual track record of staying off the DL (though to be fair, a good part of Halladay’s DL stint has to do with unfortunate linedrives that seem to find important parts of his body)

by RollingWave on Jul 15, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t put past ol Brian. He’s made some questionable moves althought I’m mostly comfortable with the current roster. We FINALLY have somewhat of a good farm system let’s use it for once. I’m already upset with Pena & Cervelli being sent down for Molina & Hinske I liked what they brought to the club. We defintely got older and slower and I’d hate to see Jackson, Montero and/or Hughes go for yet another 30 sumthn pitcher who, while still damned good, wouldn’t be the deciding factor in the AL East since our bullpen would be suspect losing Hughes and Bruney being horrible right now. Id much rather an arm for the pen, Hughes back in the rotation, bring back Ramiro send Cody somewhere and let’s see where we get

by PinstripesSince'78 on Jul 15, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

Why, why, why would you give up Hughes instead of Joba?

Joba doesn’t have the maturity or demeanor to be a world-class starter. Hughes carries himself like a pro. I can’t see Joba having a long successful career in anybody’s rotation, especially in New York. The only reason he’s surviving now is because he’s still got “golden boy” status lingering from his long run of scoreless innings he pitched out of the bullpen when they first called him up. That will wear out, and the real pressure will be on.

He doesn’t get the big outs. He doesn’t go deep into games. He’s not improving, he’s declining.

Trade Joba, keep Hughes.

And don’t give ‘em Jackson either. Drive a hard bargain, and tell them just Joba and Montero. Offer to take some other contracts off their books as part of the deal if we have to. Joba is highly over-valued right now. They may bite. If they don’t, let him go to Philly.

by ivan256 on Jul 15, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions