Take Well's horrible contract to get Halladay?

by jpoppejr on Jul 14, 2009 12:00 AM EDT Comment 21 comments

So would you take Vernon Wells' horrible contract to get Halladay? Could the Yanks get both Wells and Halladay and only give up Melky and a couple of mid-level prospects or servicable MLB players (maybe Kennedy and Aceves?) because the Yanks are taking one of the worst contracts in baseball?

Let's look at the numbers:

After '09 Yanks free up $31.55 million in OF payroll with Matsui, Damon and Nady gone. The Yanks also free up $10.5 million in SP payroll with Pettitte and Wang gone. So, there is a total of $42 million coming off after the 09 season.

Here are the added payroll costs with this possible move:

Halladay $15.75 million and Wells $12.5 million in 10 = $38.25 million

Halladay $22 million (prj extension) and Wells $23 million in 11 - $8 million (part of Toronto "eating" $40 million of Wells' salary as part of this trade) = $37 million

So, the Yanks actually reduce overall payroll with the trade and have an incredible rotation with flexibility of: CC, Halladay, AJ, Pettitte, Joba in 09, and slide Hughes in Pettitte's spot in 10. Put Wells into RF, make Gardner the everyday CF, and Damon/Swisher share LF. A lineup of Jeter, Damon, Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Wells, Posada, Matsui, Gardner in 09 and Jeter, Swisher, Tex, A-Rod, Cano, Wells, Posada, A-Jax, Gardner in 10 and beyond.

A horrible move? Not really. Now if the Yanks could get Rios instead of Wells with maybe only Melky and Hughes going I think I would prefer that.

What do you think? Is this too unfair for the Jays?

1 recs | Comment 21 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Well does not have negative value, even with that albatross of a contract.

by Theodles on Jul 14, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes he does

so far this year he’s playing at a -2 WAR pace. he would have negative value even if he was making league minmum playing like that.

by RollingWave on Jul 14, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should be more specific...

It’s a really one-sided deal that breaks down to this:

You’re saying:

Melky = Wells + 8 million per annum.

Halladay = Kennedy + Aceves (or just Hughes alone)

That’s absolutely ridiculous.

Wells + Halladay would cost more than a trade for Halladay alone. Wells is a very good outfielder. He’s not worth 23 million a year, so any trade Toronto makes would likely involve them giving money…but it’s not like he reduces the value of the deal.

by Theodles on Jul 14, 2009 2:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wells is not that bad

actually if you look at his splits, away from the Rogers center he’s been quite good. Of course not worth that contract, but no one in baseball save for Pujols and Doc Halladay really are worth their contracts.

This is probably the only way a deal gets done. The talk of Alex Rios instead is just false, it would cost even more in prospects to get him included.

I don’t think a deal has a chance if Hughes or Joba isn’t in it. And its gonna take more than that Santana deal cuz Halladay has a year and a half left on that deal.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 6:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I think the wise thing to do right now is wait. There are teams (I’m talking to you, Phillies) who desperately, desperately need pitching, and adding a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber instantly makes them World Series contenders.

I don’t think Roy Halladay will be in a Blue Jays uniform in 2010. Everybody is posturing right now, but the longer Ricciardi waits to trade him, the less he’s going to get. Everybody saw how the Santana trade worked out; the Twins asked for the moon from the Yankees and Red Sox, and wound up getting far less from the Mets.

With the escalating prices of free agents, young players are very valuable, and there isn’t a team out there, except perhaps the Phillies, that’s going to empty their farm system, AND sign Halladay to an extension and take Vernon Wells or Alex Rios off the Jays’ hands.

by 3460kuri on Jul 14, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wells or I guess Rios (I still think Rios would make the deal cost more cuz he's still good)

would probably nix the deal for the Phillies. They simply don’t have a spot for even a 4th outfielder as all 3 starters are pretty well set.

The sad thing about this is I actually see the only team actually trading for Halladay this season would be the Red Sox. They have the prospects to trade without killing the farm. They could probably care less about the payroll too.

Adding Wells or Rios would hurt, but to platoon Wells with Ellsbury wouldn’t be that bad an idea. Its really not like Wells on defense is bad, he’s still very good out there.

And take a look at Wells away from Rogers center. Not exactly tearing it up, but it seems he’s a different player away from there.

I actually wouldn’t mind taking on Wells to the Yankees at all. In fact Id see that as a plus out of the deal, cuz he’s still a better hitter than Melky and he’s the total package out there in CF.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if you do that

Our 2012 payroll will look something like

Teixeira – $23 million
Sabatthia – $23 million
Burnett – $18 million
A-Rod – $22 million
Wells – $22 million

I mean, I know it’s the Yankees, I know they have money to spend, but that’s a bit much.

Here’s a fun fact: Vernon Wells has put up a 1.6 WARP in about 400 plate appearances this year.

Brett Gardner has a 1.4 WARP in 215. Melky Cabrera has a 1.3 WARP in 277. WARP is a counting stat, so it’s the same as saying 10 home runs in 200 at bats is better than hitting 12 in 400.

by 3460kuri on Jul 14, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's a lot of bread

I never said Wells was that good a hitter, but check out those Home vs. Away. If he OPS’s like that away from Rogers centre, what will he do playing another 40+ games at the new Park?

It would seem that a Wells move to the Bronx could be what Lowell was for the Red Sox. The guy, like Lowell not coincidentally, is still a great CF, much better than any overall the Yankees have that’s for sure.

And if he plays near those away splits at the stadium with his defense? That $22 mill will still be a little nuts, but overall a CF that is capable of what he is may indeed be worth that (Id still like to have Beltran on the team…)

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 14, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Math skill are useful...

365 is closer to 350 than 400 =P So if you’re going to round to a pretty number…365 is the way to go.

I question why you’d round 365 to 400 though when you specify the exact number for the other players.

Seems like a deliberate attempt to bias the numbers. ;)

by Theodles on Jul 14, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fuzzy math

Ok, Wells has a 1.6 WARP in 397 plate apperances (not at bats). :)

Well’s career is following a scary path. He was great at his age-27 season – 5.8 WARP – and regressed since. He was a 3.6 WARP player last year, which is good, but not $23 million a year good. I think he’s the kind of guy who, in a few years, will only be holding a roster spot because of his contract.

by 3460kuri on Jul 14, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well hot diggity! I’m wrong.

Or…am I not allow to say that on the internets. Must consult manual.

by Theodles on Jul 14, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im thinking your probably going to have to add Melky plus Hughes or Joba and Action Jackson to get it done unless the Jays find the market to be lack luster ( which I dont think is happening) I figure the Phillies and the Sox will be there to drive up the price with possibly a dark horse like the White Sox or Rangers sneaking in there… I know the Phillies could offer a lot of top level prospects and if the Sox get involved there is no way you are getting him for less than the package I talked about and then some..

by MUSKRAT on Jul 14, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If I'm Ricciardi,

I’d welcome getting rid of Wells in a deal with Halladay. The main reason for getting rid of Halladay is salary, and why not rid the team of its worst contract and possibly worst contract in all MLB. I’d still want Melky, GGBG, Jesus or AJax, and another high ceiling pitcher at least. (Subbing Hughes for Jesus or AJax would work too.) It would cut my payroll by $30 million for next year, give me a very good haul of young talent, plus free up an OF spot for Travis Snider.

Then again, I’m not Ricciardi.

by Leviticus6688 on Jul 14, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

People needs to

start actually looking at the stats .

Wells so far this year = -1 WAR

a -2 WAR player = negative 10 millions in worth.

If Wells play to a -2 pace this year. his 3 year line would be exactly 0 WAR, meaning he is worth the league minimum.

So if we assume Wells is a 0 WAR guy going foward. trading him + Halladay means you think Halladay is worth whatever your going to pay him (probably 18-20 mill a year after the extention) + 20 mill a year. ok.

If we assume Wells boune back to.. say a 2 WAR guy going foward. he’s still only worth about half his contract. he needs to AVERAGE like a all star to be worth his contract going foward.

fangraph had a post a week ago that pinned Roy Halladay’s fair market value at 40M for the next 1.5 year (basically he’s worth 70M in wins and makes 20+ M and some odd and end ) by the same calculation. Vernon Wells is worth either just as much as Halladay in negative value (if we assume he bounce back a bit) or 3 times as unvaluable (if we assume he plays like this year, though he probably be released if he does that so it’s more like 2X as unvaluable.)

look, let’s forget about the long term and look at the short term real quick.

Gardner : 2.0 WAR so far
Melky : 1.0 WAR
Wells : -1.1 WAR.

a 4 + WAR player over a whole year is a likely allstar. a 6+ WAR guy is a legit super star. a guy with significantly more than 6 is a likely MVP. 0 is basic replacement level player. while 2 is a useful but not spetacular starting player.

Melky + Gardner have been very productive. though the 3.0 WAR combined is misleading since they not only split time, but also appear at the same time. but still, the difference between that combination and Wells if we assume all 3 play around the same level for the second half. is around a -3 win. Roy Halladay has about 4 wins so far. so yes. in this trade off, even discounting money. your getting one whole wooping win, which if you need context. Joba’s first half is worth about 0.9 win.

by RollingWave on Jul 14, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To elaborate

Wells have played around a 3-5 win guy from 03-06, by this average. he is kinda worth his current contract if we assume the market isn’t going down. but from 07-09, he’s been simply bad, hurt, or (this year) terrible.

If you want a example of how ugly it’s getting, in the 3 years that Jason Giambi made 20+M . he averaged around 2.3 wins a year. which means he was worth roughly half of that money. but Vernon Wells in his current 3 year slash is averaging 0 win! that means he’s worth NONE OF THE MONEY!!! . sure there’s a chance he bounce back more to the 3-5 win guy he was. but you can look at these 3 years as if they never happened.

He is making so much money , that he is virtually sinking the Jays franchise by himself. if we really do trade for Wells + Halladay. even if we assume a modest bounceback from Vernon Wells. the fair value should be either nothing (like a Kei Igawa) and/or some prospects that have upsdies but a pretty low probability (say Andrew Brackman)

by RollingWave on Jul 14, 2009 11:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HOLLIDAY

IF CASH CAN DO IT FOR MI LEVEL PROS. DO IT. NOT THE FARM THOUGH

by JEETS on Jul 15, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

jeez JEETS

How many times to you have to mix up Matt Holliday with Roy Halladay? Not only do they really not sound alike but Roy is a pitcher, Matt is an OF. Roy is actually good at his craft, Matt is above average if that.

No one wants Holliday. He’s an OF and makes as much as Halladay yet is as valuable as Nick Swisher. No sense.

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 15, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Little known fact

Like the way there is no “ctrl” button on Francisco Cervelli’s computer because he is always in control, there is no “Caps Lock” button on JEETS computer, because every letter is just that important.

by Lord Duggan on Jul 15, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs