Before you jump off the Joba The Starter bandwagon

by Travis G on Jul 11, 2009 10:30 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 30 comments

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Please read this (and yes, I know it's a bit late) -

Last night we saw a 23-year-old kid have a bad game. It was his second straight - no question about it. But let's not go overboard: from some of the comments on this site, you'd think Joba was as bad as Chien-Ming Wang. These knee-jerk reactions are irrational.

His ERA now stands at a-better-than-average 4.25, third among Yankee starters.

Joba's velocity last night was 93.5 MPH. Is that not good enough? It won't be as fast as when he relieved because that's the nature of baseball: pitching fewer innings is easier and less taxing.

And we've seen him be very successful as a starter - last season he had a 2.76 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 12 starts.

Now let's play a game called Guess the Pitcher:

22 years old, 4.48 ERA, 1.49 WHIP...

23 years old, 10.64 ERA, 2.20 WHIP...

22 years old, 4.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP...

21 years old, 5.61 ERA, 1.64 WHIP...

25 years old, 4.82 ERA, 1.51 WHIP...

and now Joba: 23 years old, 4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

My point is not that Joba will turn into a Hall of Famer (like the aforementioned pitchers), but that a bad stretch doesn't mean he automatically won't. It's two bad starts, two.

All I remember hearing the past couple years was how the Yankees had to develop their own pitchers so we wouldn't have to rely on the likes of Carl Pavano, Tim Redding, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, etc.; and the Quadruple-A guys that we got to know too well: Ty Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Karstens, Darrel Rasner, Kei Igawa, etc.

That brings me to my next point: if you're throwing Joba into the pen, who takes his spot in the rotation? Sergio Mitre (28 years old, 5.36 career ERA, hasn't pitched in the Bigs since '07), Josh Towers (32 years old, 4.96 career ERA, last seen in '07), Jason Johnson (35 years old, 4.99 career ERA), Igawa (do I have to go over his resume?)? You liking any of them?

Joba is 23, has a 3.04 career ERA (3.62 as a starter).

So the choices seem to be ML re-treads with no promise, or watching a kid with a ton of promise go through normal ups and downs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

In addition to all that, Andy Pettitte had another poor game. Should he be moved to the pen?

Joba's ERA as a starter is 3.62. Pettitte's over the same time frame ('08-'09) is about 4.62. A full run difference. Before you tell me that Joba doesn't pitch deep enough, I've already looked. He averages 5.1 ip/start - Pettitte has averaged a hair over 6 ip/start. How much is a full run in ERA worth? 2-3 more outs?

It would seem those traits might roughly even out. Therefore, if Joba deserves to be in the pen, why not Andy?

0 recs | Comment 30 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

WOW

most of those G.O.D.‘s of the mound didn’t start becoming that dude until they were 25, 26. Except for Santana, he was 24. I guess that means he’s the Zeus of this Mount Olympous of pitchers.

At first I had a nice LOL when I saw that first link’s name pop up. I wondered what the hell are you doing with HIM in a Joba comparison…Then I wondered if HE was in Joba’s place right now, there would be the same argument to shove him into the pen. Imagine THAT!

It IS pointless tho. People will argue their points until he’s throwing CG’s night in and out. And going by the fact that most of those greats were 25-26 before they started doing that, its gonna be 2-3 years before the other half of the argument shuts up.

Can;t he just be going through a rough patch? Just cuz there are other guys doing good, doesn’t mean Joba should. After all, they don’t play in a billion dollar stadium where most angry fans (and rightfully so..$1250 for a frickin baseball game, might as well buy a LCD TV!) yelling him the directions to the bullpen as his ‘rightful destination’.

Is there any reason why his away numbers (yea, including yesterday) are so much better?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 11, 2009 10:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yesterday's ERA

was over 8.

He pitched in a gigatic stadium against a team missing its two best hitters.

Keep searching for excuses while your boy keeps failing.

What’s it like being wrong all the time?

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 12, 2009 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what's it like to be negative all the time?

by FreeBradshaw on Jul 12, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you didn't answer

my question re: Pettitte. You’re Mr. ‘What have you done for me lately’, and Pettitte has been worse than Joba lately, so what’s your solution?

by Travis G on Jul 12, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alright...

It was such a ludicrous comparison on your part to throw Pettitte into the discussion I didn’t think I’d bother addressing it, but here we go I guess.

The “solution” for Pettitte is simple. You keep giving him the ball every 5 days because he’s proven over 15 years that if you do he will give you 200 innings.

What you’ve done here is create a straw man argument that has nothing to do with anything I’ve said. Do you feel vindicated in arguing against a position I’ve never taken?

I’ve never suggested that you should move ANY starter who has a bad month to the bullpen, I’ve repeated stated that Joba’s best role is out of the bullpen for a variety of reasons: durability, velocity, his emotional makeup, effectiveness, etc.

What any of that has to do with a veteran starter like Pettitte with 223 career wins, I have no idea.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 12, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"durability, velocity, his emotional makeup, effectiveness"

1. durability: he hasn’t missed a start this year. i’ve said it before though – if he gets hurt and they prove that moving him to the pen will allow him to stay off the DL, then i’m down for putting him back in the pen, but we have to give him a legitimate shot first.

2. how many times do i need to say this? velocity will ALWAYS go up when a pitcher moves from starting to relieving. Joba is not unique in that. putting Pettitte in the pen would up his velocity at well.

3. emotional makeup: somehow he was a great starter in college and MiLB with the same makeup. and there are countless other emotional starters that happen to be great (Zambrano, RJ, Clemens to name a few).

4. effectiveness: despite the recent poor stretch, he STILL has the third best Yankee ERA. and who else is going to start in his place?

going back to Pettitte: i already wrote the differences between him and Joba. Joba is a better starter (both this year and last), but normally gets 2-3 fewer outs. why are you killing Joba but giving Andy a free pass and allowing him to keep starting?

by Travis G on Jul 13, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you even read?

Honestly.

I NEVER said any starter should be demoted to the bullpen because of a bad month, I said that Joba’s best role for the Yankees is in the bullpen. I have my opinion, you have yours, the difference is you’re trying to take my opinion and make it something else to suit your argument.

The Pettitte comparison is a weak attempt on your part to paint me as some sort of hypocrite RE: Joba.

And in case it needs repeating, Pettitte has been a major league starter for 15 years, so he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. Joba is under the delusion that he’s pitching well despite the obvious truth that he’s not, and has earned nothing.

Again, re-read my opinion on Joba and comment solely on that, without making up things I’ve never said please.

His best role in the major leagues is in the bullpen. It is not based on a bad month of starting, it is based on my opinion of what I’ve seen from him as both a starter and a reliever. I do not believe he will be a frontline major league starter.

There it is, in black and white. Carry on.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 13, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at 23 he’s gone from prospect to phenom to suspect…he had his chance, package him to Toronto for Halladay.

by hangman on Jul 12, 2009 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fail.

Did you even read the post? Unless that was sarcasm, in which case you should probably use the brackets to prevent confusion.

by dzawaki on Jul 12, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And by brackets, I of course mean the [irony] brackets.

by dzawaki on Jul 12, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All of this logic.....

why I don’t even know what to say……

Can we scream about Robbie Cano or about firing Girardi or something just to bring things back to equilibrium?

by Lord Duggan on Jul 12, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He reminds me of Zack Grienke.

In 2004 as a 20 year old he threw 145 ML innings with an ERA of 3.97 and a K/BB ratio of 3.85. The next year, he threw 183 innings lost 17 games and had a K/BB ratio of 2.15. Now look at him.
I’m not saying Joba is the next Greinke, but Travis made some good points. It’s silly to claim he’s washed up and that we should get rid of him. If we trade him for Halladay, or Lee, or Peavy for that matter, and 2 or 3 years from now Joba is an ace, the same people clamoring for the trade will be ranting about how awful a GM Cashman is.

by Leviticus6688 on Jul 12, 2009 12:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah -- and prevailing logic said the Maginot Line was a great idea too

Stop. Please. You insult. “We’ve seen Joba excellent as a starter…” What the hell does that mean? We’ve seen Jose Contreras and Jeff Weaver “excellent” as starters too.

So Joba is 23 and you suggest all we need to do is wait around until he matures into the kind of dominant pitcher as a starter he already was as a reliever — because our only choice is to pick up some “ML retread” — you mean like Johan Santana and Ray Haladay (?) — because it seems to me we keep passing on those kinds of quality pitchers to keep playing the “Find Phil Hughes” game.

Well — go ahead. Waste your time. It ain’t gonna work and Joba is NOT going to be anywhere near the impact player E-V-E-R as a starter that he was as the “lights-out” legend-in-the-making set-up specialist he was already becoming sitting at the knee of Mo Rivera. That kind of magic just doesn’t come along very often.

As usual (of late), Theo understood something that Cash and Hank just can’t seem to grasp. He had a similar situation with Pappelbum and actually bent to the seduction for awhile — before quickly coming to his senses and putting things back to their rightful cosmic order.

Five years from now we’ll see where Pap stands in relation to Joba if the Yanks try to keep Joba starting. Unfortunately — only one of them will still be in the majors.

by rosebud on Jul 12, 2009 2:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FTW

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 12, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FTL.

But why use logic when it’s so much more fun to predict failure all the time?

by dzawaki on Jul 12, 2009 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not all the time -

just on Joba’s starts, but just half the time. Which is exactly my point.

by rosebud on Jul 12, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

excuse me?!

you take ONE failed idea from HISTORY and that’s supposed to mean another idea will fail too?! wtf kind of logic is that?

by Travis G on Jul 12, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The same kind of logic...

…that allows you to cherry-pick starts from Joba’s career to prove he will be successful as a starter long term.

Sam Militello had more 7+ inning starts in his first 3 weeks in the majors than Joba has had this season. He finished with a total of 12 major league appearances.

You listed a few examples of Hall of Fame type starters who started their careers slowly, for objectivity sake, how about listing a few who started strong then fell off because they weren’t cut out for Major League starting?

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 12, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did you actually read my post?

then you’ll understand my point in listing those HOF pitchers.

by Travis G on Jul 13, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure I did

A bunch of guys struggled starting out and turned out great. I’m not denying that its “possible” but I am stating that I don’t see it happening.

by New York Sports Jerk on Jul 13, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s to at least another 2 years of this conversation.

by Slobba Hangapitch on Jul 12, 2009 2:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So tired of this

NOBODY is changing their minds. We’re all just making the same points over and over and over again.

Can we add “In What Innings Should Joba Pitch?” to the list of things that are banned to talk about on this site (religion, politics, personal attacks, etc.)

by Lord Duggan on Jul 12, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glad you asked -- he should pitch...

the 2nd, 7th and 8th. Pettite should start and rotate over to LF before coming back to pitch the 3rd and 4th — but (evidence today) NEVER the 5th — which should go to HughesWangCokeBruney along with as many outs as they can muster in the 6th before bringing in Mo to fish the inning with bases loaded and 4 runs in. Then Mo rotates to DH for Joba and comes back to close the 9th.

Geez Joe — this job is easier than I thought!

Glad I’ve solved this debate once and for all.

by rosebud on Jul 12, 2009 2:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Joba

He needs to keep his head in the game, needs to learn to pitch. He gets behind in the count and starts becoming a thrower. Yanks have terrible pitching coach, Joba has to start right now, Pettitte on the other hand should be traded as fast as possible. He sucks. Always has. I think Pettitte to be moved would allow NY to get Hughes and Jobamore starts and perhaps get a couple other young arms. Pettite is done, no arm strength since he went off the dope. Move him now, get something. As for Doc Holiday, give them Cano and either Hughes or a AAA starter plus Igawa

RB laporte

by lightfoot21 on Jul 12, 2009 2:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Girardi

I would be willing to move Broadway Joe at the All Star break. He as well as his pitching coach are awful. Pitchers pissing 4 and 5 run leads daily and absolutely no clue as to find out why.
If cash has a brain, it is time to get a pitchers manager in there, you have several million tied up with CC and AJ, get a better pitchers manager in there before Boston pulls away

RB laporte

by lightfoot21 on Jul 12, 2009 2:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by Astroglide on Jul 12, 2009 7:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Joba is a starter!!!

All this bs doesn’t matter. Cashman and the powers that be believe he can be an ace and maybe he can. As for a trade? I used to be for keeping prospects – but – GET DOC!!!

by jimwarren on Jul 12, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs