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Around the Yankee Universe, 06.08.09

There are a lot of interesting stories to touch on in the Yankee Universe today as our Bronx Bombers enjoy the view atop the American League after Sunday's 4-3 victory over Tampa Bay.

  • After Saturday's fiasco, it felt really good watching Mariano Rivera close out Sunday's victory. After the controversy created Saturday when Joe Girardi forced Rivera to intentionally walk Evan Longoria, it was cool that Rivera got the Rays' star for the final out Sunday. He earned himself the championship belt that goes to the star of each Yankee victory. When it comes to Rivera, John Harper of the Daily News voiced the thing no Yankee fan really wants to think about.

What if the timing turns out to be all wrong for the Yankees? What if this is the year all of the championship pieces fall into place again...only age finally catches up with Mariano Rivera?

There is so much to like about these Yankees, from the best starting pitching this franchise has had since 2003 to a late-inning grit that has the home dugout believing no deficit is too big to overcome.

But what if the great Rivera, at age 39, has lost just enough to make the ninth inning an issue after all these years?

Girardi, of course, was asked a lot of questions about Rivera over the weekend, especially since he has been hit harder than usual on a couple of occasions. Here is what he said Saturday.

"We know he's coming off surgery," Girardi said. "We thought it would take some time to get back to exactly where he was."

Overall, Girardi said, this season has been Rivera "showing that he's human…Guy coming off surgery, it's taken some time. But I still feel pretty good about him.

"Because he's been so great for so long, whenever he does have a blip, people are like, 'Uh, oh.' If you're 30 and you have a blip, people don't say 'Uh, oh,' but if you're older, that's always the initial reaction. I don't always think that. "

Star-divide

This year's draft is Tuesday -- the Yankees pick 29th in the first round and at No. 76 in the second -- and they will continue to use the philosophy born in 2006. That year vice president of amateur scouting Damon Oppenheimer became, in Cashman's words, "fully empowered." Before that, Cashman said, "There were a lot of cooks in the kitchen. A lot of different philosophies colliding at times."

But beyond who does the picking, the draft targets for the Yankees have changed. For example, now it's more about a pitcher's stuff than his statistics.

"Players with tools, tools scouting rather than performance scouting," Cashman said. "Going aggressively after the difficult signs. ... It's really just keeping it simple. Going after players with big tools. Big tools hopefully lead to championships."

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I agree on the smell of Yankee stadium.

It was the type of thing a only few $9 Budweiser’s (—bullsh..BTW) cure.

And I love how all these media outlets are so quick to dismiss Rivera, or any Yankee for that matter. I know its not Mo’s first bad game, but they said it after his other 2 big ones this season, the rays and the Jason Bay HR game.

Anyone who knows the Yankees knows Rivera is just not the same dude when its not a save situation. Its been like that since he was the closer. It doesn’t make much sense and its not always, but it just seems that way.

But the guy has one blown save. If you look at his stats, its resembling his 2007 season, which had a few of these blowups like Saturday but still Mo was still Mo.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 8, 2009 7:12 AM EDT reply actions  

It seems like the demise of Mariano Rivera is second-favorite topic for New York sportswriters to ramble on about, surpassed only by the latest A-Rod nonsense (from which we’ve had a much-needed respite as of late).

If we’re going to be honest, though, the Save Situation® is nothing more than an arbitrary set of rules created by Tony LaRussa in the late 1980s which dictates (rather poorly, I might add) how a team’s best relief pitcher should be used. The fact that Rivera has not pitched well in non-save situations is a statistical aberration; over the long term, Rivera should post the same numbers regardless of whether or not a save is on the line. There’s no magical gear in Rivera’s head that only clicks “on” when the team is up by three or fewer runs in the ninth inning.

Rivera has allowed 37 fly balls, and 5 of them have left the yard for home runs – that’s one home run for every 7 flyballs. Not even the worst pitcher in baseball – I’m looking at you, Sidney Ponson – gives up home runs at that rate. Expect Rivera’s luck to even out at some point.

What’s lost in this conversation are Rivera’s strikeout and walk totals. He’s given up one unintentional walk in 24 1/3 innings compared to 29 strikeouts. He’s struck out 29% of the batters he’s faced. These numbers are utterly dominant. I have a hard time believing a 39 year old pitcher is finished, when he’s posting the highest strikeout rates and lowest walk rates of his 15 year, Hall of Fame career.

by 3460kuri on Jun 8, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions  

He's not finished

You’re right that for years now every time he has faltered the topic becomes ‘is Rivera finished?’ Someday he will be, but he is still hitting 93 mph some days, and he still throws the ball where he wants to most of the time. He’s still terrific, he just may not be as dominant as he once was. His margin for error is a bit smaller.

by Ed Valentine on Jun 8, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Average

HR/FB % is, in any given year, 10-13 . So 5/37=13.5 is not so unusual. Indeed, look at Yankee starters this year (Joba=14%, Burnett=13%, Pettitte=10%-basically the same as his career #‘s). Some of this is inflated by the stadium, but it is not unusual. It is unusual for Mariano, and I do agree that at this stage the evidence that Mariano has lost it is completely anecdotal, but those #’s are not so high compared to average.

by Buzzy on Jun 8, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

where are you getting your HR/Flyball numbers?

Pettitte has 8 HRs this year vs. 122 Flyballs allowed = 6.5%
Joba has 7 HRs vs. 82 Flyballs = 8.5%
Burnett has 11 HRs vs. 117 Flyballs = 9.4%

Burnett is the closest, and his rate is still only 2/3 that of Rivera’s.

by 3460kuri on Jun 8, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I got them from fangraphs

the funny thing is-looking at Mariano (which I didn’t before) has him listed at 25%-way above what you quoted. Thus, this is inflated. I think Fangraphs might recon the FBs differently (take a look). However fangraphs does it, 10-13 % is normal (and where Yankee starters, save Wang and CC) are.

Still has his LD% listed at 26%-high even by the way the site does it.

by Buzzy on Jun 8, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

For example

fangraphs claims Pettitte at 78 FBs…and Mariano at 20…

by Buzzy on Jun 8, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lol

Rivera has had 3 real blow ups this season. 2 against the Rays in non saves and he got beat by Jason bay when he was unpitchable earlier in the season.

Other than that he’s really be the normal dominant Mo. He’s been at 91-92 lately with the FB, but during a little run on saves there in May he was right up around his normal 94-95. He did have 5 off days leading up to that first Rays game. Maybe a little more work in between would have helped?

NY Media is always quick to dismiss players, especially Yankee players. Like maybe they would talk about David Wright and his 3 HR!

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 8, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, he's not finished

The man has spoiled us for 14 years, and baseball again yesterday shows why it’s a great game. Rivera got to go back out there yesterday, and shut the other side down, the day after he got beat.
 On another topic, maybe we have a little karma going this year. Posada’s grounder to 3rd was an absolute DP, and then Matsui’s grounder right after that…REALLY? The 2 slowest guys on the team hit potential double play grounders in consecutive at bats and not only do the Rays not turn either, we score the tieing and winning runs on them!
 Once again, a “W” tonight and we take another series.

by fredny on Jun 8, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

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