Adventures in Small Sample Analysis: Watching Hughes Spell Relief

With seven relief appearances under his belt, Philip Hughes has posted a pretty impressive array of stats in only 12 innings this season.  Of course this constitutes as a small sample and should be greeted with a slightly hesitant applause but his line of 5 hits, 3 walks, and 15 strikeouts has made him one of the more effective relievers this month.

Before his temporary role as a long reliever/7th inning specialist, Hughes posted 7 starts with 34.2 IP, 37 H, 15 BB, 31 K.  Most viewed Hughes young 2009 season as a starter with mixed yet (promising?) results.  The main problem with Hughes as an SP was his propensity to be hit hard and often.  His H/9 during those seven starts was at 9.61 while his BABIP calculated to a league average .290, in addition he allowed 6 home runs and 20 line drives.  Some would blame Hughes' troubles on his inability to establish the inside fastball, looking at Hughes on a per inning basis we can see that he was incredibly effective in the first inning along with a solid K/BB ratio of 2.67.

In the 2nd and 3rd innings pitched, Hughes would see a rapid decrease in K/BB from 1.60 to an ineffective 1.00.  His opponents SLG and OPS would also increase in later innings from a solid .217/.477 in the first inning to a horrendous .774/1.261 in the second; .417/.850 in the third; and .733/1.116 in the fourth.

Looking at his velocity with pitch/FX, one can see an increase in average velocity since assuming duties as a reliever.

Here's another chart (via FanGraphs) that show his average game velocity high and lows:

Since assuming bullpen duty, Hughes has greatly decreased his H/9 to 3.79 while only allowing 1 HR and 5 line drives iduring this brief time span.  His K/9 and K/BB ratio has also soared to 11.25 and 5.00, respectively.

Watching some recent video of Hughes in the reliever role, he still seems resistant to pitch inside (esp. to left-handed batters); this could pose a problem during high pressure innings but with better control of his fastball, curve and cutter along with an increase in velocity - the Yankee pen seems to have a new viable weapon and all the exhaustive speculation of if and when Joba will be reassuming 8th inning duties may finally be put to rest.