Jorge Posada and Catcher ERA
I will start this little diatribe by saying I don't like Catcher ERA. I don't like the idea of it. All of the usual caveats for ERA are present- it is extremely luck influenced, it doesn't tell me how good the guy is at recording outs, and it doesn't tell me how big the sample size is.
So today's NYTimes article on Jorge Posada started my day on the wrong foot. Tyler Kepner writes:
With Posada behind the plate, the Yankees’ pitchers have a 6.31 E.R.A. The combined E.R.A. with Francisco Cervelli, Jose Molina and Kevin Cash is 3.81.
Let's start with sample size. Posada has spent 232.1 innings behind the plate this season.
Cervelli has spent 151.0, Molina 115.1, and Cash 67.0 innings. So the masterful trio have spent 333.1 innings calling pitches. That's 133% of Posada's time.
Of the roughly 163ER that have scored on Posada's watch, we have to consider that 27 of them came in just under 9 innings worth of Chien Ming Wang. Taking those out lowers "Posada's" ERA nearly a full run (5.49). Give him another 100 innings of the Yanks' average ERA (4.84) and he comes down to around 5.2. Not pretty, but not the misleading number that Kepner reports.
Conversely, Cervelli caught CC Sabathia at his best; Cervelli caught 32 innings against 6 ER while CC was dominating May and Posada was out. Toss those innings to Posada, the trio's ERA rises to 4.05 while Jorge's falls from 6.31 to 5.76. Does anyone think that Cervelli et al should be credited when CC is clearly on his game? If so, the Yanks should be spending millions on smart pitch callers rather than on high leverage arms.
On the other hand, I've been watching the news coverage of Pudge Rodriguez's march to the record for all time games at catcher. We all know first hand what an awful game caller he is. Maybe, as one poster postulated recently, maybe Posada has a pitch call pattern that other teams have begun to pick up on, either consciously or subconsciously.
Anyone want to help me watch the starts for the next couple of times through the rotation and chart the pitch type percentages with Jorge behind the dish vs. the backup? Maybe there's something to see there.
[Interesting take on Joba vs. Posada from SNY - Travis (h/t to BBTF)]
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i dont like C-ERA either
though it seems like Posada has been more ‘in your face’ this season than any i can remember. perhaps he feels he’s earned a certain ‘veteran respect’ that allows him to do that.
but does it help? i’m not sure. i suppose with some guys it does, but not with others.
It seems like veteran pitchers
have problems with Posada. Jorge may do better with the youngins. I don’t imagine Posada’s in your face will work with CC or AJ. Mussina couldn’t stand Jorge behind the plate.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate C-ERA
How can you penalize a catcher when a guy completely misses the spot a pitch was supposed to be thrown to, and it gets jacked for a home run? It’s a silly stat.
by Ed Valentine on Jun 16, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
well, the pitchers are hitting spots when the other catchers are behind the plate. May be Posada’s glove smells. who knows?
by yankslocktowin on Jun 16, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What I don't like about Posada
Actually, it’s a few things.
1) He gets shaken off more than any other catcher, which suggests he’s not really in sync with the pitchers.
2) He seems to have a bit of an ego about it, and gets in pitchers faces when they shake him off “too much.”
3) He can’t frame a pitch to save his life. Look how many pitches a guy like Varitek steals for his pitchers because he’s great at it. Posada stabs at the ball far too often, so borderline strikes are called balls.
by New York Sports Jerk on Jun 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions
+1
I don’t think I have EVER seen Jorge get a borderline strike call with a good “frame job”. Seen Cervelli do it a couple times already.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't start qualifiying the numbers
The numbers are the numbers regardless. Posada posts a much higher ERA than the other catchers this season. I don’t know why this seems to be such a thorn in everyones side. MAYBE Posada does NOT call a really good game. That is OK. We still love Jorge. I still think he is one of the best offensive catchers there is. There is something to be said when the Big Unit and Moose preferred another catcher. Moose won 20 the same year Posada was gone. Is Jorge a bad game caller? Well even with your magic number qualifying, his ERA would still be 1.4 higher than what the backups put up. That is huge. I do not want to lose games because we want to make Jorge feel warm and fuzzy. Have him catch 2-3 days, preferably with the kids and have him swap DH with Matsui when Matsui can take over LF on days he’s not DHing. Someone said we would need to carry a third catcher if that was the case. Well Molina is much more useful on the bench than Berroa. Pena can play 2-ss-3rd and run. Molina’s veteran experience can only help the pitchers AND Cervelli. I want to be in a postion to win games, not possibly lose games due to nostalgia. Jeter is playing the best defense I have seen this year, one day he won’t. When he is a liability at SS the Yankees should address it. I don’t want to finish 2nd or 3rd place but have our veterans feel good about themselves.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions
actually you can qualify the numbers
when the sample is small and the history with larger samples suggest otherwise. That is how proper assessment of regression is done. And it works, by and large. It is not to say that you might not be right, andf there is a deeper reson behind the numbers, but with small sample sizes you can’t say that until you see more data. Otherwise, you could call for someone to be traded every time the have a slump over, say, 50 at bats, which is about the same % of total at bats compared to total season innings Posada has caught.
We are not talking about anything OTHER than this season.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
you miss the point
it is 1/3 of the season and 4 guys have played C. You also have a long history to look at. What don’t you understand about SMALL SAMPLE SIZE? The numbers not indicative of anything at this stage. Go take a statistics class.
What don't you understand
About using this year as the metric. We are not talking about prior years. THIS year, the games Posada has called the pitching’s ERA has been almost 2 runs higher. I think you are trying to look for something no one is saying. Doesn’t matter if he called decent games in 02. Wang’s sample size this year is a strong indicator as to his performance no? Well, what is being mulled is whether Posada is a cause for the poor pitching in the games he caught or at least a big factor. The numbers this year bears that out.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
So what your saying
Is based on such a small sample size you can’t determine ANYTHING? So how is Wang faring? Sample size too small? And try not to be condescending, it make you look like an ass.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't determine
how a catcher is calling a game based on 1/6 of a season’s innings. You can determine that someone is historically, historically bad in the variables he can control. Like having the worst ERA in the history of baseball through X innings, giving up 5 HRs in 21 innings when in your career you have given up 34 in 630, or having the worst periphals in baseball. Don’t play smart and act like these things are remotely related. The variables are totally different. Let’s make a bet. In 2 months let’s revisit this issue. Want to bet that the difference in the CERA looks a whole lot closer?
I hope you're right
Doubt it though.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The other thing
You tried to factor 100 innings of avg era of 4.84. Well that is bad math. That 4.84 average is factoring in the other catcher’s cERAs.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions
This doesn't make much sense tho
Posada came off the DL, the pitching staff did fine. This past week, they sucked (aside from CC-who did pitch to Cervelli).
Small sample size means you can’t be sure.
But it really can’t hurt to give Jorge 2 games off one week and DH another, or maybe DH two of those games.
Letting Cervelli play more can’t hurt. The only thing in the long run that could hurt here is if you are forced to carry 3 catchers. Having Molina AND Cervelli on the team is escpecially not good, cuz they are both bench players that play one position and can’t hit for either.
I disagree
Berroa and Pena are redundant, you only need one of those guys. On the other hand, if you DH Posada you don’t have a catcher on the bench in case of a pinch-hit situation or an injury. Carrying 3 catchers makes sense to me. There’s also the option of keeping all the bench players and ditching the 12th pitcher, whichever of Veras or Tomko who survives the return of Brian Bruney..
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I agree on Berroa and Pena
Berroa should be gone by now.
Posada is still a good defensive catcher. I think that is lost in this argument.
You need to use that cuz he’s an excellent hitter for a catcher. Matsui is inconsistent, but he’s a much better hitter than Molina or Cervelli, so you’d rather have him in the lineup.
I would rather carry 3 catchers if that 3rd guy could also play somewhere else…like SS. 3 catchers doesn’t do a whole lot, especially when the backups don’t do anything at the plate.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Cashman
lost a bet to Berroa so now Berroa gets to stay on the team the whole season. We don’t need him.
I agree
Berroa is dead weight. Molina and Cervelli as the backups help both the rotation and allows Posada to DH. Plus imagine having both Posada AND a Molina as your catching mentors? Cervelli can even pinch run.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
As for not making sense...
this week, the staff could look great again. They play the Natinals (or Nationals) so it may not matter.
The staff looked like crap for a little while with Cervelli or Cash back there too.
Its just the ebb and flow of this long season. Of course it comes up after a week in which Posada’s games were pitched horribly, and Cervelli caught 2 great games from CC and AJ Burnett (which also doesn’t say much, these 2 are the Yankees best pitchers anyway).
If this week Posada catches a few very good pitched games, some will say this Posada vs. Cervelli thing is a load of crap, some will say its cuz of the Nationals.
I think you need to leave it the way it its, maybe give Cervelli the chance to be AJ Burnett and/or Joba’s personal catcher type thing. That’s all.
There is no reason to full time DH Posada and make Cervelli and then Molina your catchers. Matsui may be inconsistent, but he’s as good a run producer as anyone this season on the Yanks not named Tex.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
a week ago
When AJ played against Redsox you were saying AJ sucked A$$ why did the yankees get him!!!.. now you are saying his one of the yankees best pitcher.. Don’t you think there is a reason Cervelli caught Burnett’s Game? Maybe there is a coincidence that lots of great pitchers come to NY and suck balls in NY. Lots of great dominant pitchers have to come to NY and have sucked. Maybe home grown players like Cervelli, Joba, Hughes who get to pitch everyday here could get accustomed to this city and eventually some day could become the dominant pitchers and catcher this team needs to win a WS. Nah what we fans want is to WIN right now.. Right.. The Yankees may not win the WS this year but at least Cervelli, Joba and Hughes are on the right path to understand this organization better and eventually next year become a full time catcher and who knows Win the word series..
can you quote where I said that?
I might have said AJ had a crappy game and sucked for that game, but I never questioned why the Yankees got him. Don’t put words where I didn’t say them.
And I would think that everyone would say AJ and CC are the Yankees 2 best pitches. Joba may have been a bit better so far, but there’s no doubt AJ Burnett starts game 2 of a series.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a faux controvesy
Posada is in the twilight of his career as a catcher. That, I don’t think, anyone disagrees with. He is going to get more and more time at DH.
The question is whether Cervelli and/or Molina compensate enough for their offensive deficiencies by calling a better game. I would agree that C-ERA’s aren’t a fair comparison IF there wasn’t such a wide disparity. In fact, I would actually argue that the sample sizes are actually pretty compelling. 2.5 earned runs is a big difference.
Posada may just need to back off a bit. Just as Girardi relaxed a bit this year, Posada can modify his behavior. Framing the ball is bogus — and certainly not why there’s such a wide gulf. But getting inside the pitcher’s head is a problem.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Jun 16, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions
Sample size
In fact, I would actually argue that the sample sizes are actually pretty compelling. 2.5 earned runs is a big difference. Do you know what is meant here by “sample size?” Not trying to be a jerk, but these 2 sentences have nothing to do with one another, nor are they even accurate, sice the difference is not really 2.5 points, as was pointed out above.
To be honest, this sample size is very, very small. Over his career, Posada (who has never been a great defensive catcher, and never framed pitches well) has basically the same ERA from his pitchers as all the other catchers used, which includes types similar to Cervelli. Furthermore, it is a good assumption that a catcher’s ability to call a game has nothing to do with age, since it has nothing to do with decline of atheletic ability. In a month or so when the CERA more or less evens out, this debate will then take on a new tact (like Posada can’t throw any more, or something else). I agree that he is old, and should DH fairly regularly, but if you take 09 Posada with the typical Posada defense, there is no way Molina/Cervelli is a better option, rest/age excluded. And it is nearly impossible to argue that his catching tendancies (calling a game or getting inside a pitcher’s head) should be any different now then in the past.
Stop talking about a career long sample size
That only matter when voting for the Hall of Fame. Posada was out most of last season, he has been on the 15 DL once this season. When he HAS caught THIS season the ERA is remarkably higher than the when he didn’t. Posada is shaken off more than any catcher I have ever seen. Like mentioned before, he cannot frame a pitch to save his life. You using Posada’s career in this discussion is like me saying well sure Dontrelle Willis is pitching badly, but that’s just because you are using a small sample size. If you look at his career numbers yada yada yada
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Boy
you are not too bright. First, I assume you play the lottery regularly, don’t understand numbers or what a statistical fluctuation is. Second, Dontrelle sucks because his pitching mechanics went to shit. What about the way Posada calls a game depends on his age or the DL? Did he bang his head and forget something?
Normally I wouldn't respond
But I will. You’re a douche.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
and you have the IQ
of a flea. Looks like Posada is calling a good game tonight, moron.
CC
Has 3 pitches. Against the worst team in baseball. Hey jackhole, I probably can call that game. You seem to think those of us who think Posada is a inferior game caller actually WANT him to fail. No. I would love Posada to be a fantastic game caller. He ain’t.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't matter how well Posada catches
You’re still douchey
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine
I may be douchey but your logic makes no sense. Posada catches the historically slow starting CC. Then he goes on the DL when CC heats up (as he always does). He catches the utterly broken Wang, which inflates his CERA nearly a point by itself, etc…doesn’t it make more sense that there is just early season variation than something that historically there is absolutely no evidence of, and for which age/atheletic ability play no role? Posada may not be a good game caller, but he never was, and the numbers show no negative influence. These numbers are so effected by so many variables not under Posada’s control (who he catches, how well they pitch that day, what team you play..) that it makes not sense to draw conclusions from such a small fraction of a year. It is not that you are wrong, it is that at this stage, there is not good evidence that you are right, and occam’s razor suggests you are wrong.
Occam's Razor
Well gee I guess you don’t really know what that means. With all things being measured the simplest conclusion tends to be the right one. When Posada catches, the combined pitching corps era is almost 2 points higher than when someone else catches them. The easiest answer is that when Posada catches them, his influence causes their opponents run production to go up. That said. I am done with you on this.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 17, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I do know what it means...
small sample+non-historical precident —→ simplest conclusion =statistical flutuation is the right one.
And one last thing..
Yankees SCORE fewer runs this year when Posada is catching. I guess Cervelli, Molina and Cash are better offensively. That argument is just as strong as yours about CERA. Really, it is and you can’t argue it.
Sorry if
you felt the first sentence was somehow meant to qualify the second sentence. Not the case. Two separate thoughts. Happens sometimes in a paragraph.
I was an average math student, but the difference between a 6.31 ERA (Posada) and a 3.81 ERA (Cervelli, Molina and Cash) is, in fact, 2.5. Somebody would have to go through and qualify all 533 innings — something I’m sure Jscape will do next — to parse that fully. Even if you toss out CMW, 1.5 ERA is a big difference.
Career CERA is not germane, because you have different pitching staffs. The only comparison one can make is between how different catchers handle the same staff. River Avenue Blues has all of Posada’s historic CERAs — so what? How do you compare how Posada handled Cone, Clemens et al against how Cervelli handles Joba, AJ, etc?
It is not impossible to argue that his catching tendencies are any different now. It is actually very easy. People change. Girardi relaxed. McCain tacked to the right. Mickey Rourke got tired of taking shitty movies.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Jun 16, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Dissect each of 533 innings?
How much free time do you think I have?
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Come on,
you could plow through that in a weekend!
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Jun 17, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at Jorge's career record
For the 10 years in which Jorge caught a majority of the innings (1998 through 2007), his CERA was 4.26, while the CERA for other Yankee catchers was 4.35. Last year, Jorge’s CERA was 4.61; the other Yankee catchers was 4.22. That was a very small sample size, as Jorge caught only 16% of the total innings. A number of factors may explain this years differences – small sample size (we’re in Mid-June and Jorge has only caught 40% of the innings so far), selection of starting pitcher, etc. – but unless you think that Jorge all of a sudden forgot how to catch, then I think these numbers are an abberation. Let’s see where he is after another 1/3 of the season, before we send Jorge off to stud and annoint Cervelli as Yogi II.
jorge is a true yankee but...
he is past his prime. let him catch games that are already decided and share dh spot with matsui on other days. cervelli is obviously a much better “pitcher’s catcher” and with everyone crying about pitching quality it seems like a no-brainer to have someone on the same page as the pitchers to be calling the games.
my two cents
I have never been a fan of Posada’s let me say that up front. He has never been the greatest defensive catcher as far a s blocking balls and the plate. When he was younger his offense could make up for some of his deficiencies and the tough veteran pitchers we had more than made up for any unimaginative pitch calling. The facts i look at are 1.He does not work well with young pitchers. 2. He is getting to a point where his wanting to play everyday has to take a backseat to the fact that the team needs him in the lineup and not injured or creaky from the wear and tear. 3. At some point we need to stop trading away our young catching prospects or burying them in the minors to appease him. How would navarro or hernandez from Tampa look as the second catcher right now? we traded both away to ensure that Jorge would not have his feathers ruffled and because he does not try to do what Girardi did for him which is train his replacement. The yankees would be better with Posada being able to play 150 games instead of catching 120. Those extra 30 games could be the difference in a playoff berth or third place.
chandler knight
This will be posadas last year behind the plate
While I love Posada for all he’s done throughout the years his time has come. The Yankee rotation now consists of a different kind of pitcher than he is used to catching. While the rotation consists of veterans they’re much younger and harder throwing than Posada is used to. Posada can still be effective at the plate, but not behind it. Cervelli has shown he knows how to call games, and make good stops. His bat has been very good too. Unfortunately that probably won’t hold up (he hit .190 in Double A). The most important aspect that Cervelli brings is that many of the pitchers like it when he’s calling their game. I’ve read more than one story in which a Yankee pitcher was raving about him while Posada was out. I’ve unfortunately never read an article about a Yankee pitcher raving about Posada.
With all respect, Cervelli's bat has NOT been very good
Yes, he is hitting .298, but he has only 2 extra base hits and one walk. His OBP is .310 and his SLG is .333, both of which are well below average for the league. His RC27 is only about 68% of the league average. On the other hand, Jorge’s about 146% of the league average. You’re going to lose an awful lot of offense replacing Jorge with Cervelli.
Right
Which is something we can absorb considering the rest of the lineup ESPECIALLY if Posada is DHing and Matsui is in LF on those days. Everyone crying about Cervelli and Molina’s offense need to understand… who the hell else is out there? Mauer? Well thats what 2010? 2011? And we all know Boston is gonna get him. Besides I would like to see our catcher come from our system. Unless Montero proves he can catch, which he has not.. Cervelli and Molina are our only options. Cervelli is young enough, talented enough behind the plate that we can survive with his bat as long as we STILL have Posada’s bat in the lineup as well. While Posada was on the DL we had quite a good winning %.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats the plan
After the all-star break he will be taking LF. Girardi has been saying it all season. I am assuming it will just be every few games.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
let matsui play vs. RHP and POSADA vs. LHP.
by yankslocktowin on Jun 16, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
that really doesn't make sense
especially considering Johnny Damon has as good an arm as Matsui and 50x the range, not to mention is a better hitter. I don’t watch YES all the time, but I really doubt that Matsui’s knees have improved where he can move in the outfield.
Also you don’t take Johnny Damon’s bat out of the lineup.
Posada at C, Matsui at DH, Damon in LF? Still makes sense. Yanks will win with that.
They won’t make the playoffs, AGAIN, if Posada is not their catcher.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 17, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I guess we're effed
When he retires according to you.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 18, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
we can have both
I see people keep talking about jorge’s bat. There is an open DH position. I’m sorry but Matsui will not hold up and really should not be playing every day anyway. If Posada dh’s 3 day a week and catches 3 days a week matsui can dh the days posada catches and the one day off where posada doesn’t catch or dh.
chandler knight
Matsui's bat
for as inconsistent as it is, is much better than Molina or Cervelli. Much better lineup with Matsui at DH and Posada as the catcher.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
When talking about putting Jorge at DH, you then have to compare Cervelli’s bat with Matsui’s. I don’t care how bad Godzilla’s knees are – he can hit better on his knees than Cervelli can standing up.
cervelli
I understand the point but you seem to think cervelli can’t hit due to his batting average in AA. Posada didn’t hit well in the minors, bernie williams took a few years on the columbus shuttle before he hit, i would rather save a couple of runs a game than wait for a big bomb every other game. At some point you have to let young players fail and learn from it. So we should keep a player in the lineup that is hitting .250 and cannot play defense and will not hold up over the season instead of letting a young player play and keeping the older play fresh for the stretch run?
If this were august i could understand the reluctance to play cervelli and sit matsui more but right now is when you have to find out whether or not this kid can play because we all know that in september matsui will be in the lineup every day as will posada so why not save some wear and tear now?
chandler knight
that's the way Girardi is handling it
and inside all the criticism of Girardi, I think no one has really mentioned that Girardi is handling the catching situation very well (hard to believe from a former catcher right?).
He’s playing Posada, but DHing him and sitting him enough to keep him fresh. Maybe they do it a little more as the season progresses too.
It just doesn’t make sense to have Posada as the full time DH and Cervelli as the full time catcher, or at least the majority of the games.
by FreeBradshaw on Jun 17, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Jorge is done as a C....
If you want to really look at the sample size, how about we only compare Jorge to Carveli. Now, Jorge has been terrible. From 333.1 IPs catched by the 3 catchers, if you take out 101 scoreless innings and matched them up against Jorge’s 232, the ERA will still be high when Jorge is behind the plate. He can’t throw anyone out. He doesn’t back up the 1B. He is not active. I know he has all the experience. blah blah… may be he can use his exp. to teach cervile if he cervile is doing something wrong.
I think yankees really needs to look this up closely. Even with Burnett’s last outing, it proves that everyone wants Carvelli behind the plate
by yankslocktowin on Jun 16, 2009 11:14 PM EDT reply actions























