Pinstripe Alley's love affair with weak-hitting backup catchers

by 3460kuri on Jun 15, 2009 4:59 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

Frontpaged by jscape

Sorry guys (and gals). I had to give this a title that would stick out. I mean no offense to anybody

For those who didn't frequent this site last season, I am a self-described Molina-hater. Molina's been on the DL for the majority of the season, and since Yankees have more love than they can hold in their collective hearts (except towards A-Rod), they've begun sharing it with Francisco Cervelli.

Now, I have nothing against either of these fine gentleman, in fact, I'd gladly trade careers with both of them. They both have a job to do, and they do it well. However, the problem is that Yankee fans are trying to miscast them into roles for which they are poorly suited.

Jorge Posada has spoiled us. Over the years, we've become accustomed to a catcher who consistently posts an OPS of .850 or higher. Posada is in his late 30s, however, and has begun to be hampered by a series of nagging injuries (although, it's worth noting that they haven't affected his hitting yet). It's not unreasonable to begin thinking about phasing him out of daily catching duties.

This especially makes sense if two criteria are met: 1) Posada's track record of injuries suggests he physically cannot handle the workload behind the plate without hindring his hitting skill, and, probably more importantly 2.) We find a suitable replacement.

Now, you could argue about Posada's DL stints over the past two season, coupled with his age as proof that a change is needed. I'm willing to have that conversation. But, what is a "suitable replacement"? It seems like the answer depends on what the meaning of "is" is.

Some of the most advanced, cutting edge statastical analysis has suggested that two-thirds of a players "value" is derived from offense, while the remaining third comes from his defensive contribution. So, you could find situations where a good hitter/poor fielder (Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu) is nearly as valuable as an average hitter/excellent fielder (Orlando Hudson/Jason Bartlett).

Therein lies the problem: if you're going to make your living in the major leagues because of your defensive prowess, you still need to be an average hitter.

There are 68 catcher with at least 25 at-bats this season, which is probably seven or eight games worth of at-bats. The median OPS for these players is .698. Our friend Mr. Cervelli has posted an OPS of .644, "good" for 50th place. Now, I understand that defensive value is difficult to measure, and there are no statistics for things like "handling a pitching staff" and "calling a good game". Even still, there are 49 other catchers in the big leagues who are having better season at the plate than Cervelli is. That's almost two per team!! I'm sure many of them handle a staff well, call a good game, and wouldn't cost much in the way of prospects or money to acquire (or would, but would be worth the cost).

Like I said, I'm willing to discuss the possiblity that Jorge Posada's days as an everyday catcher are numbered, but until we find a replacement who's able to post an OPS that's better than 50th out of 68, I'm not in much of a rush to do so.

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The reason that it could make sense for the Yankees

is that from 1-8, they have above average hitters, even with Cano being as inconsistent as he is and Melky having a career year.

But Cervelli is a backup, his bat is a liability if its in there.

The Yankees could get away with it, and maybe with more regular at bats Cervelli hits more. He has been hitting better as of late and I think he’s better than Molina (tho even Molina runs into a HR every now and then).

But when you got a guy like Posada behind the dish you can’t take him out of the lineup. I mean if he really is the problem with the pitching staff, then by all means he should be out of there.

I don’t think he is the problem tho, cuz when he came back the staff was fine until this week.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 15, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

The Yankees had a better winning % with Posada on the DL than they do now. Not MUCH better but still better. And for one thing, the staff looked a helluva lot less shaky to me. Not a stat, just an observation. Posada needs to transition into the DH. I do not have as much faith with him calling games. All the shake offs, full counts etc. You can never discount what he has done for the Yankees Franchise. We need his bat, and experience. He should backup Cervelli and help “raise” the kid to be the next Yankees catcher. Who else is out there? Would be nice to see the heir to Posada be from the farm system.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 15, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But how valuable is "calling a game"

Somebody in the Posada vs. Cervelli post noted that the catcher can call for whatever pitch, wherever he wants it, but it’s up to the pitcher to locate it. Pitchers aren’t stupid; they study hitter’s tendencies and understand how and where to place their pitches to throw the hitter off balance.

Posada has been unlucky the past two seasons, in that he’s been unfortunate to catch some of the worst Yankees pitching, therefore raising his “catcher’s ERA” and leading to this discussion.

What I really want to see is a legitimate major league hitter behind the plate, whether his last name is Posada or something else. As bdman says below, until we have somebody other than Posada who can either post an OBP of .350 or SLG of .400, this is really a foolish argument to have. Just because you can afford to carry a below-average hitter in your lineup doesn’t mean you should, or that your team is better off doing so. As I said before, if you make your living in the major leagues because of your defense, you need to at least be an average hitter. Cervelli is not, not yet at least, and looking at his minor league numbers, I’m not sure it’s wise to bank on the likelihood.

by 3460kuri on Jun 16, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would be nice to see the heir to Posada be from the farm system.

but we’re the Yankees and Joe Mauer is a free agent in two years

by Brian5517209 on Jun 16, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or is it three?

by Brian5517209 on Jun 16, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two

After 2010 he’ll hit the market.

by Leviticus6688 on Jun 16, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're beginning to break down Freebradshaw.

Remember a couple of weeks ago? You were my biggest critic. Now you’re questioning Posada too!

You can’t teach old dogs new tricks. Posada will not lose his terrible habits. Thank goodness that he will only be catching for a couple of more years because when he’s done. The Yanks will win!

by Michael Robles voice on Jun 16, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's hard to tell with Cervelli.

Despite looking like a Jason Giambi Mini-Me, Francisco is just 23, so he could still be maturing as a hitter. As he continues to face Major League pitching and get Major League hitting advice, he could start walking more and maybe even retain his high batting average (.298, by the way).

Or he could just be shining as a result of a small sample size in limited at-bats and come way back down to Earth once he starts playing every day. We’ll have to wait and see.

He won’t ever hit for much power, but if he starts to supplement his defensive abilities by reliably hitting for average and taking his walks, I would gladly turn to him as the Yankees’ future catcher, particularly if the Yankees decide to not go after Joe Mauer or one of the Texas guys when the time comes. I’m personally a big fan of both Cervelli and Pena, and I honestly hope that they become solid, homegrown pieces of the Yankee franchise over the next few years.

"Even Napoleon had his Watergate." —Yogi Berra. Quite true.

by dzawaki on Jun 15, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That said...

I might just be waxing poetic and both Cervelli and Pena could just wind up being average or below average players. In my mind they’re not just backups, but also prospects who are still developing their skills. And so far, I’ve generally liked what I’ve seen from them.

"Even Napoleon had his Watergate." —Yogi Berra. Quite true.

by dzawaki on Jun 15, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take

As of now, Posada is my starting catcher… and should be getting 3 out of 5 games, 1 at dh and 1 day off. I like Cervelli, and assuming he hovers around .300 for a season, he would still need to post an OBP of 350+ or slugging of 400+ before i consider him for everyday duty. If we do as alot have cried, and make posada a dh, we need to carry a 3rd catcher. Why? What happens if Cervelli breaks another wrist in the first inning of a game while we have our dh/back up catcher doing his dh responsibilities. We become an NL team for the day. Right now, we have a roster spot open, cause berroa is wasting space. So we could carry 3 catchers, but when/if nady comes back, we have to drop either molina or cervelli. Oh and as for our winning streak while posada on the DL? Anyone consider we had 4-5 guys with hitting streaks and an errorless streak that set a record. Yes our pitching was very consistent, but not overpowering. Solid defense and timely hitting caused that streak. Wang wasn’t up during that time, and he’s been horrible all around (and should get his next start), and burnett didn’t blow up against the sox then either. Bottom line? Our winning streak was not the cause of cervelli calling a great game (wasn’t cash playing half the time), not that i thought he called bad ones. Thus, his numbers do no merit him being the number 1 catcher.

by bdman318 on Jun 15, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

i diaagree that cervelli is the 50th best catcher
i agree that he is a backup and should start probably 2 games at catcher a week
the thing about molina though is he is great defensively, but cervelli does a better job than posada at throwing out runners, but worse than molina.

ops is a stupid stat for catchers.
if the nine batter is hitting .298 that’s amazing, tell me how many 8 or 9 batters are hitting .298
as long as he keeps it in the .280 range he can be my backup all day long. I iwsh the yanks could keep 3 catchers and let them start each 2 games a week, and then have posdada dh the others, i would put matsui on the bench. so in total, 9 players, 2 backup catchers, pena for backup inflieder, and matsui for pinch hitter. so that leaves 5 starters and 7 releivers: rivera, coke, aceves, hughes, robertson, and veras.

by YanksVikes on Jun 16, 2009 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No, OPS is extremely important

Batting average is far less important than OBP. Batting average completely ignores walks, whereas on-base percentage measures what percentage of the time a player DOESN’T make an out, which, ultimately, is his job, right?

Cervelli has a higher batting average than Nick Swisher; would you say Cervelli is a more valuable hitter?

by 3460kuri on Jun 16, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are right that OBP is imortant for a hitter,

but I think slugging is less important for a bottom of the lineup hitter. Just as you said, it is important to recognize how often he doesn’t make out.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on Jun 16, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS is important, but...

Try looking at GPA (gross production average) it’s OBP + SLG / 4. OPS is extremely rough and just gives equal value to getting on base and how many bases are achieved each at bat. In reality, it’s more important to get on base, thus GPA gives it a greater value in the equation.

by Leviticus6688 on Jun 16, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry,

You’re supposed to multiply OBP by 1.8. Forgot that part.

by Leviticus6688 on Jun 16, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speak of the devil...

Tyler Kepner has an article for the Times on this exact subject.

"Even Napoleon had his Watergate." —Yogi Berra. Quite true.

by dzawaki on Jun 16, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tyler Kepner

may have the most damning rebuttal to this post:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/sports/baseball/16yanks.html?ref=sports

“With Posada behind the plate, the Yankees’ pitchers have a 6.31 E.R.A. The combined E.R.A. with Francisco Cervelli, Jose Molina and Kevin Cash is 3.81.”

Posada would need to generate 2.5 runs to make up that difference.

You write: "Some of the most advanced, cutting edge statastical analysis has suggested that two-thirds of a players “value” is derived from offense, while the remaining third comes from his defensive contribution."

But you forget the caveat: “Except for catchers.”

I love Jorge. He’s my man. But he needs to start transitioning from behind the plate. If Cervelli continues to get great performances from the pitchers — even if it’s just because he doesn’t get into their heads — then he deserves to stay put.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Jun 16, 2009 12:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Complete abuse of statistical analysis

Come on guys, you do know that these are rediculous sample sizes to start comparing the ERA of pitchers divided up among 3 different catchers over the course of 1/3 of a season. That is just plain stupid. To wit:
a)Posada has caught all but one of Wang’s starts. Hmm, I guess Posada is the cause of Wang’s problems. If you remove the Wang starts, How much does Posada’s “ERA” go down?
b)Posada has caught zillions of Yankee games. Yankee pitchers in that frame do not have anything close to a 6.31 ERA. In fact, if you want to do a more penetrating analysis, look at the ERA for pitchers caught by Posada and non-Posada catchers over the timeframe of Posada’s career.
c)The same goes for W-L with and without Posada. Way too small of a sample to mean jack shit. You could do that for Jeter too, ovewr much larger samples, and come up with the notion that the team has been better off without him. In the case of this season the W-L with and without Posada is meaningless.

I agree that Posada is distinctly weaker behind the plate than Molina, but it is extemely unlikely that the team is better off with Molina catching. Your offense with both a servicable DH (eg Matsui) and Posada is so much better than with Molina in the lineup, and this is not likely close to outweighed by Molina’s defensive contributions, as strong as they are.

by Buzzy on Jun 16, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Precisely

And I’d like to expand on b), while the others are great points as well. This whole argument seems to be based on the fact that Posada has somehow forgot how to call a game. He’s caught a million Yankees pitchers and while we all know he’s not the best defensive catcher in the world, he has caught MANY, MANY HUGE wins for the Yanks over the years. And now he doesn’t know how to catch?

I think this ERA thing is solely based on sample size. Yankees pitcher’s ERA with Posada catching over his entire career is 4.32. The ERA in any 1 year has never been higher 4.71 and that was early in his career when he was still learning (1997). If you look at the trend of pitcher’s ERA over his career, you will see that it has gotten higher in years when Yanks pitching talent was not as good. How could this be his fault?

This is really simple. By the end of the year this discrepancy in ERA between Posada and the other catchers will be very reduced because this is what Posada has done his entire career. And then what will we be important? The offense that Posada provides.

by potroast on Jun 16, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its not that

Posada knows how to call a good game, I don’t thinkg that’s not the point. He does. He calls pitches in the dirt and all that, and his arm seems normal again.

Its that some pitchers like to have the game called for them, others like to throw what they feel at certain points.

Posada seems to do his own thing back there, that may mess with some of these guys.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I agree

but that really wasn’t the point of my comment. My point is the same as the one Buzzy keeps trying to hammer home. Posada’s CERA is going to come down to “normal” like his career CERA (which is 4.32) because that’s what he has done his entire career. Do you really think Posada’s attitude has changed so much this year that it is suddenly affecting the pitchers so much that they can’t pitch? More than other years? I don’t. This ERA thing will even out over the course of this season.

by potroast on Jun 17, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is the whole crux of the argument over “who should be the Yankees catcher” -

Some of you are essentially saying that the Yankees pitchers ERA has more to do with who’s catching than with who’s pitching!!

I ask you this:

Mechanically speaking, how fine is the line between a 6.30 ERA and a 3.80 ERA? Does it simply come down to the location of a few pitches? A.J Burnett is a 10 year major league veteran; he isn’t stupid. He said that Cervelle was calling for curveballs on fastball counts, which is probably a good thing. But Burnett has thrown somewhere around 1,500 innings in his career; if getting hitters out and winning games was really that simple, wouldn’t he have figured this out already? Why is he acting like this is some sort of revelation?

As far as defense goes, there is no caveat “except for catchers”. Defense is important, but you still need to be able to hit, even if you’re a catcher. And, my point above, was that 49 other catchers, nearly 2 per team, have had better seasons at the plate than Cervelli. I’m sure one of them calls a good game, handles pitchers well, and so on and so forth, AND also happens to look like a major leaguer when he’s at bat. Let’s get him to catch for us.

by 3460kuri on Jun 16, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

catchers hitting

If you check out the career stats of the three arguably best catchers of their era only one Piazza finished with a career average over .280. Bench and Fisk both Under .280 for their career. This is just for an example. I think what most people are saying is that to have a catcher like Posada or Mauer is NOT the norm but the exception. Cervelli got his wrist broken in a play blocking the plate by the way. So can we stop bringing that up? The reality is that we need a strong defensive catcher like Posada used to be. We need a catcher that makes the pitching staff better and yes the catcher can make a pitching staff better. if we had a veteran staff that had had success before they came here Posada would be fine but we have a staff of pitchers with the exception of two (Mo and Pettitte) that have not had championship success so they need a catcher who has the ability to coax when necessary and know when to back off. This is not and has never been Posada’s strong suit. He learned under Torre who did not have a lot of patience with young Pitchers which is why we never developed any under Torre. Pettitte learned from Key, Cone etc. No one is saying bench Posada i think Posada should catch Pettitte and Hughes and DH the other days. Matsui even though he can still hit should be relegated to sometime DH and pinch hit status

chandler knight

by ae2cdk on Jun 16, 2009 1:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the most important qualities in a catcher are not of the offensive persuasion...

When I am looking to evaluate a catcher at any level, their OPS or batting average are not the things that are at the top of my list. The position is obviously unique relative to others on the field, posessing certain important influences on the team as a whole that cannot be matched by any other other than the pitcher. “Calling a game” and having a good repor with your staff and teammates is very important. Catchers are usually like on field coaches (surprise surprise, many turn into managers). Leadership qualities and a hard nosed attitude are of utmost importance. There are a lot of physical rigors to the position and not everyone is cut out for that, especially for a 162 game season. Also, a catcher lacking defensively or in arm strength is more likely to be taken advantage of than any other position. Like ae2cdk said above me, hitting catchers are not the norm. There is a reason for that. The position is very specialized. When I was younger, SS’s were kinda relative to this point. Most were good if not exceptional glovemen, had a rocket for an arm, but couldn’t hit their weight. Guys like Cal Ripken Jr. came along and soon we had Jeter, Arod, Nomar, Rollins, Ramirez, etc. The position has evolved significantly to almost mandate significant offensive production, but while not compromising defensively. Catcher will be the last position for such an evolution, although we are in the process of it now.

by Ozone on Jun 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that said....

I like cervelli a lot…I also wish Posada would lose some of the negative attitude he has at times

by Ozone on Jun 16, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very true

I think Posada would call a better game if he worked with more pitchers rather than impose his will on them.

I think he does this with Pettite, I always see him talking with Andy. I hate to use the Sux as an example, but I watch a lot of their game unfortunately, but Varitek is one of the better catchers in the league behind the plate, its cuz he allows the pitchers to do what they do best even if a guy like Matzusaka should be told what to do.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Jun 16, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Get real dude

There are NOT many hitting catchers out there NEway!!! If we have some youth that can call a game for the top of our staff (CC,AJ etc), throw guys out,add an edge that is visible on the field, than why not use him? Our core players #2 46 42 20 gotta get old some time!!!!!

by ReggieARodJeter on Jun 17, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right On!!

They are all getting old. They should start thinking of some replacements. Personally, I love Cervelli!! I think Posada is OK, he does seem to have an attitude problem. Like last year when he had his lil’ tantrum because Molina was catching in his place for a while. His comments were unprofessional and they made him look like a spoiled bratt. Also, everyone is putting Cervelli down for his batting. Am I the only one who watches the Yanks games?? He hit a couple RBIs that Jeter, Damon, Arod etc couldn’t get. He tied the game the other night for the Yanks. Maybe he doesn’t do it every game, but atleast he doesn’t strike out.

by Snoffie on Jun 17, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs