BA w/ RISP - what to make of it?

by Travis G on Jun 15, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

This has been an ongoing problem for the Yankees this season. They might go 9-20 with runners in scoring position in one game (yesterday) and win by 15 runs, or go 1-11 (last Thursday in Boston) and lose by a single run. How can it fluctuate so much from day to day?

It's not just our slanted perspective either - the Yankees have actually been quite bad: They're fourth from the bottom in batting average with RISP (.258). The Yankees are batting .273 overall this year; but the league BA w/ RISP is .266, against a .269 league BA. So while the league hits slightly worse with RISP, the Yankees hit significantly worse; why?

I believe it's a matter of luck. The Yanks have a below average BABIP (.288 vs. .297 for the league), yet they also hit more line drives than the league (20% vs. 18%). Then there's the matter of A-Rod, who's batting just .230 at the moment; that won't continue, and as the BA of our cleanup hitter inches closer to his career BA of .305, so will his BA w/ RISP.

Jeter (.291), Teixeira (.290) and Cervelli (.286) have been our best so far (w/ RISP), but it's offset by poor performances from Matsui (.239) and Cano (.228). Every other regular is hitting close enough to their normal BA that they don't deserve scorn. The discouraging thing is that only one Yankee is hitting above his normal BA, w/ RISP: Tex (.290 vs. .284).

It's probably just a matter of our BABIP evening out and A-Rod returning to his normal productivity. But when will that happen?

FYI, the Yankees AL rank in BA w/ RISP -

2008: 10

07: 2

06: 5

05: 7

04: 7

03: 10

Not awful, but not great either, especially considering the caliber of hitters in the lineup during those years.

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This hasn't been a problem just this season

Its seems its a perennial problem since 2003 and it really bites them in the playoffs.

The amount of runners they get in scoring position is amazing. I mean if they batting 10 points higher it could equate to one more run per game which would have won or tied more than a few games.

Of course its A-Rod’s fault…tho in this case it really is. Once he gets his eye and timing down, he’ll get this average up across the board. What he needs to do is start going to the opposite field.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 15, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

i added where

the Yankees rank since 2003. they’re 10th again this year (so far). is there a way to make hitters better w/ RISP? is it a trait that can be learned? can you acquire a player knowing they’ll hit w/ RISP?

by Travis G on Jun 15, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they are all capable

the thing is I don’t know if there’s a stat for pitches seen with RISP. But this season being in Mass. I watch a lot of Red Sux games. These guys are extremely patient every single time they get up to bat, save for guys like Lowell and Lugo and many times Varitek is a bonhead.

BUt these guys are run produces cuz they are patient and come up with a plan when there’s RISP.

You see guys like Cano with RISP and all he does is hack away. A-Rod is perrenially like this.

That might not be al it is, but its a big part. Its not just to walk and get on base. Its fouling pitches off in order to get the count in your favor, its strike zone recognition, which are both things that are hard to teach.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a problem

Kudos to Travis for doing some good research – I have no idea where you can find team situational stats, let alone historical team situational stats online.

By virtue of watching practically every game, rather than looking at his situational stats, I could have guessed Cano is the worst hitter in the lineup w/ RISP. I do not beleive that he should continue to hit fifth. So long as Cano hits fifth, Alex’s numbers will be impinged because he hardly ever gets a pitch to hit (a la Barry Bonds circa 2003). Remember that Saturday game against the Phillies? A-Rod had to look at 5 pitches before getting a pitch to hit and driving it out.

Nice analysis though,

by JRob514 on Jun 15, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

Learning where the holes on the other team's defense is will help

For example, if someone’s on second & a left handed batter is up, the shortstop will likely keep the runner on 2nd close to the bag. Have the left handed batter try to hit a ball between short & 3rd. Opposite is true for a right-hander. This way a routine ground ball out can be a single due to defensive positioning. Yanks need to take advantage of it.
Perhaps it’s still early in the season, but I haven’t seen too many Yanks go the other way often enough (or maybe I’m just not watching enough games).
Getting the ball in the outfield w/a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs is also another key. It won’t count as a hit (therefore won’t do anything to the AVG w/RISP), but it still brings home a run. Any idea on how many sac flies the Yankees have versus chances w/runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs? Maybe that can skew things as well.

by BriGuy27 on Jun 15, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

Just looked up sac fly totals for this year...

Baseball-reference is awesome. We’re 11th in the AL with 14 sac flies (tied w/Baltimore & Detroit, only ahead of KC)…that’s also not a good stat for the Yanks. League leader has 25 & average is 17.

by BriGuy27 on Jun 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

sac flys are lame

i like singles instead

by Brian5517209 on Jun 16, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Sac Flys are

better than strikeouts or whatever the hell the Yankees do with a runner on third and less than 2 out.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Amen Brother

and preach on. It’s about scoring runs. Last time I looked scoring more runs than your opposition was the purpose of the exercise.

"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel

by tnredneckyankeesfan on Jun 16, 2009 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

the 2007 offense

was a treat to watch
in the summer that is
we were dreadful before July

by Brian5517209 on Jun 16, 2009 12:23 AM EDT reply actions

RISP and Cano hitting 5th

All you had to do was watch the Red Sox series to see why they have a good BA with RISP. One thing is that they don’t miss mistakes, which many Yankees hitters do. It’s a hard thing to quantify but if they could find a way to gauge which teams in the majors are the worst fastball hitting teams I’m sure the Yanks would be the worst of the contending teams. Fastballs in fastball counts have to be put in play, not fouled off, and I’m not talking 97-99 mph stuff but rather 93-95 mph stuff. Let’s keep in mind that Damon, Jeter, Posada and Matsui are all 35 or older and they HAVE lost bat speed. If they miss one or two fastballs early in the count and are down 1-2 or 0-2 then the pitcher can go to an off-speed pitch and expand the strike zone. And A-Rod is jumpy with men on base. Cano is a hit or miss proposition with men on base. He has no plate discipline. He has no business hitting 5th. They could put Posada, Swisher or Matsui in the 5 spot and they’d be better at getting A-Rod pitches to hit. You need to have a clue up there and not just hack away. I will add that the older players I mentioned before, the ones whose collective bat speed is slow, are all savvy enough hitters, particularly Jeter and Damon, that they can foul off pitches they probably should have put in play and work the count deep to where the pitcher hangs a curve or misses his spot adn then they rope it. That’s the good thing about long at bats. They favor the hitter because the pitcher is forced to use up his full arsenal and expend a lot of energy and concentration. Cano may have lightning in his bat but he does not force deep counts, and because of his tendency to hack away indiscriminately he often misses pitches he should have hit hard. The only reason I can think for why Girardi continues to bat him 5th is that he knows that the fans and the media probably are all wondering what the f…..k he’s doing hitting 5th, and thereby if he changed him to 6th or 7th it would be an admission that he was wrong and perhaps give the impression he’s swayed by public opinion. He’d rather die than give that impression.

by chambliss76 on Jun 16, 2009 8:15 AM EDT reply actions

you're saying

older guys cant hit a good fastball, but that Cano – one of the younger guys – should hit behind the old guys.

by Travis G on Jun 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Cano

is the most frustrating player on the Yankees. When he’s patient, and then even decides to go the other way? Id be surprised to find a much better hitter.

But when he swings at the first one he likes, usually the first pitch, he grounds out to first or 2nd.

I mean its really not hard to see that Cano has one of the best natural swings and eye in the league.

Its just his brain that needs rewiring. I really can’t stand him sometimes, but when he makes his mind up into being a patient major league hitter, the guy SHOULD be hitting 5th.

It seems everytime I complain about him hitting 5th, he has a multi-hit game, so its really pointless. You have to leave Cano where he’s at.

Everyone should be encouraged he, like A-Rod, is where he’s at right now. Cuz once this summer gets going (it IS SUMMER RIght? Im frickin freezing right now) these 2 will heat up like normal, then watch out.

by FreeBradshaw on Jun 16, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

BREF

also has a ‘productive outs’ stat. the Yankees are actually perfectly average this year, ahead of Boston. they’re also average at GIDP, also ahead of Boston (meaning they have fewer). and… they have a stat for sac hits, and are both above average and above Boston.

i mean, we do lead the league in runs scored, so we certainly dont suck at that, but BA w/ RISP could certainly improve.

by Travis G on Jun 16, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions