A Rant on Smart Baseball Plays

by jscape2000 on May 6, 2009 11:31 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

BFG. Brett to his mama. Like Bucky Dent, like Aaron Boone, Brett has a special middle name.

71.6% That's the likelihood that the Yankees win a tied game at home with a runner on first in the bottom of the 9th.

70.4% That's the likelihood that the Yanks win after a sac bunt by Brett Gardner, if you trust the statistical averages. But there are a million reasons not to trust the averages in this case, reasons to believe that Brett hurt the Yanks chances by a much greater percentage.

The next 3 batters after Gardner were Melky Cabrera (.287/.333/.382), Ramiro Pena (.278/.333/.306), and Jose Molina (.238/.277/.339). That's a combined OPS+ below 70. These are the guys you're saying deserve a crack at the winning hit? As though any pitcher in the league couldn't be confident of overpowering those 'sluggers'?

Next, an out that leaves either Cano or Gardner at first only lowers the winning percentage to 67.4% So gritty, gutty BFG's smart baseball play barely gained a 3% advantage. And if Gardner is on first, is there any doubt he's going for second? If he doesn't steal the base outright, putting the defense in motion might open a hole for the slap hitters at the bottom of the lineup.

If Gardner had somehow hit into a double play- worst case scenario- the W% drops to 55.2%. But with Cano on first- not a speedster, but not a Molina either, there's little reason to think that a 80 grade runner like Gardner would actually hit into a DP.

And the reward for swinging the bat, the real purpose of this rant, is huge. A double likely wins the game, or at least puts runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out. A single- runners on 1st and 2nd- would be a 79.5 W%. A more than 10% gain on the "smart" play.

If Cano was already on second, or if there were decent hitters coming up or on the bench, then it's a whole different story. But with Arod, Nady and Posada hurt, the bench is empty. With Cabrera-Pena-Molina coming up, there's no lumber there to justify that bunt.

Gardner faced Brian Shouse. In the 9th inning, Shouse threw 5 pitches at 79-80 mph that Pfx called fastballs, plus a 73 mph slider to Cano that missed so badly that it might have hit a righty. If Brett can't hit that guy, he's not going to hit in the bigs.

I hate sac bunts. I hate "productive" outs. I hate losing- damn it, I hate losing.

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Comments

:(

the Yankees make me sad

by Brian5517209 on May 6, 2009 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

Numbers

You guys are obsessed with those FanGraphs numbers

by duffsta328 on May 7, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

It's another way to say

that the Yankees stink right now. On a night when the starting pitching AND bullpen pitched well, we still managed to find a way to lose. It’s very frustrating. This isn’t anything close to a championship-caliber team so far into the season.

by BigSlim on May 7, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s actually Retrosheet’s numbers. I’ve compiled every box score from the last half century to serve as the frame of reference.

I use numbers for 2 reasons: first, I live in North Carolina, so I often follow the game on Gameday and can’t see a lot of the things I would like to pay attention to; second, even when I can see the game, I know that my eyes can be tricked into believing things, but the numbers are consistent (not always right, but consistent).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on May 7, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions

It's just like last season.

Both Wang and Posada on the DL.
No clutch hitting.
The only thing different is that Mark Teixeira replaced our dear Alex’s role as Baseball’s Golden Boy Who Got Booed.

by Raven King on May 7, 2009 6:04 AM EDT reply actions

Those numbers mean nothing

The Yankees should’ve been able to get a run in. There’s no doubt about that. But bad teams found ways to lose and right now the Yanks are finding ways to lose. Those numbers are a good indicator of what should happen, but as we know, baseball is a strange game. The only stat that is really all that meaningful in the end is the scoreboard. And Raven King, A-Fraud is anything but a “Golden Boy.”

by Blazer Fan From Ohio on May 7, 2009 6:18 AM EDT reply actions

Hate to disagree

with you ‘jscape,’ but the bunt was the absolutely obvious and correct play. You move the winning run into scoring position. Simple. BTW, Gardner did get to swing at the first strike so Girardi did take a crack at the hit.
Where the Yanks got hurt is that because of all the injuries they’ve had there was no quality pinch-hitter (Nady or Posada) to to turn to in that spot.

by Ed Valentine on May 7, 2009 7:24 AM EDT reply actions

I just don't see it

Is moving the run into scoring position worth sacrificing the out? I don’t think it is.

They can just as easily walk Melky intentionally to set up the DP again. And then when Jose Molina comes to the plate there will be a force out to every base.

In this day and age of offense, sacrificing bunting is not worth giving up the out, unless it’s a pitcher doing it.

by 3460kuri on May 7, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Ummm

Yes. Much more likely to hit into a DP. You need that runner on 2nd. Wild pitch ala last night can get that runner over to third in which case all you need is a Sac (productive out) to win. Unfortunately Tex couldnt hit the ball where it needed to be.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on May 7, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

One more note

about that bunt. You raved about Melky in your other post (who is hitting .328 and has quite a few big hits this season). Then you question giving him a chance to win the game? Not sure I follow.
Oh, and one more thing about that inning. Replays showed Ramiro Pena was clearly safe at first on the ground ball he hit that was called the second out. So, Yanks got screwed there.
Anyway, strategy decisions always make great debate. We all hate losing.
This will turn around at some point.

by Ed Valentine on May 7, 2009 7:36 AM EDT reply actions

Usually I do not hate the bunt

But in this case I hated it..

Reasons to bunt;

get the runner into scoring position. In this case though, the coming hitters were so weak. Bad move.

Stay out of the dp. I bet they would not have turned 2 on BG. Bad move.

I agree with J. What this means is that BG has lost his manager’s confidence. Joe didn’t think he could work his way on.

Point to be made here though is that Swish can’t get thrown out. You can whine about the Ump and a “quick hook” but the fact remains.

If Swish were hitting instead of BG then Bret could have gone to first as a pinch runner. That might have lead to a different outcome. Swish is fun, but he’s a real loose cannon.

Let’s win the next one.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on May 7, 2009 8:33 AM EDT reply actions

It was a tough lefty

I think a bad matchup for BG. But, I go back to the fact that Girardi let him swing once. Maybe he just didn’t like what he saw.

by Ed Valentine on May 7, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Swisher getting tossed

really hurt the Yanks there, no doubt.

by Ed Valentine on May 7, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

A productive out

is not always a bad thing. In a close game get em on, get em over and get em in works. It is the last part of that trinity the Yanks are having problems with. How many times this season would the productive out of a Sac Fly with a runner on third and less than 2 outs have been helpful?

"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel

by tnredneckyankeesfan on May 7, 2009 9:16 AM EDT reply actions

Agree

If the hitters behind BG were someone to fear, then, yeah, bunt. But you’ve got nothing following him. Swish should have been there. Tex leaving a runner at third was another killer.

by jimwarren on May 7, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

I don't see it ...

…as “sacrificing an out” when you already know it’s extremely likely Gardner is going to make an out anyway.

As we know, he cannot hit a baseball. We also know he’s prone to striking out, making it very possible he would have an unproductive at bat if allowed to swing away.

by New York Sports Jerk on May 7, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

speaking of smart plays

Went to the game last night, tough loss. This team is starting to look like the team they’ve been for the last few years, very little cltuch hitting and a shaky bullpen.
The thing I wanted to address was fans need to be smart too. When Tex hit that double down the left field line, a couple of morons down by the left field corner actually put their hands/ gloves out to catch the ball. Hey Guys! We’re down 3 and Damon doesn’t score if one of these nitwits touches the ball, so then they lose in 9, instead of 10. Why would a knowledgable fan, particularly a Yankee fan, knowing the situation try and interfere with a ball in play and cost us a run? You need a baseball that bad, go buy one.

by fredny on May 7, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

Don't ya think Girardi called the sac bunt?

I have to believe that he wasn’t given the green light to choose his AB approach. If I was Girardi, I let him swing. Swing smart, try and push the ball to a certain area that allows his speed to break up a potential DP. Then, even if it’s him on 1rst and 1 out, he can steal 2nd if not 3rd as well.

Think 2004, Dave Roberts, speed is often underused by those watching the fall classic from home. Yes the Yanks are running but to what end, so it looks good in the stat sheat?

Look at what a commodity like Upton did for the Rays on the base paths. One player can affect so many facets of what goes on in one pitch it’s amazing. Pitchers hurrying throws and not getting all their best from a pitch, infielders covering leaving gaping holes open for hits to roll through (the Yankees pulled that with exceptional success without a stellar base stealer. They were just very smart at when to run) and the possibilities for an error.

I think Brett needs to be in center, Melky in left and Damon and Matsui split DH duties and rest the outfielders once in awhile. I am SO SICK of seeing slugs take extra bases because it was hit to Damon, that costs games and more than I think any of the Yankees brain trust is smart enough to comprehend!!!!!

by GullySully77 on May 7, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions