Assessing the Yankee trade chips

by Ed Valentine on May 28, 2009 11:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 19 comments

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Ramiro Pena

So, in my Huston Street love letter the other day I promised you a look what potential trade chips our New York Yankees had at their disposal.

Let's do that today.

So, let's start with a dose of reality. I have been a Yankee fan for a loooooong time, and I know there are plenty of fans out there who somehow think the Yankees ought to be able to pry, say, Albert Pujols from the St. Louis Cardinals for maybe Eric Duncan. Or Tim Lincecum from the Giants for oh, maybe, Kei Igawa.

So, we are going to be realistic here. Francisco Cervelli is a nice player, which might make Jose Molina expendable. But, no one is giving the Yankees anything truly useful for Molina at this point. No one is taking the aching, aging Hideki Matsui off the Yankees' hands. Xavier Nady can't throw, and can't be traded. Nick Swisher is hitting .220 for the second straight season, so he isn't going anywhere. The Yankees can't afford to deal either Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera since they barely have enough outfielders. Chien-Ming Wang has an ERA of 20.45 and can't crack the rotation. I imagine some teams will ask about him, but the Yanks aren't trading him. Damaso Marte has a huge contract and a bad shoulder, and Ian Kennedy is hurt. I can't imagine anyone wanting one of them. No one is asking for Brett Tomko, either.

Now that we have that out of the way let's look at the chips the Yankees do have to offer in a trade. I will break it down into guys on the 40-man roster, and other minor-league talent not on the 40-man roster.

The 40-man roster

I can see teams asking about Gardner or Cabrera. I can't see the Yankees entertaining the idea of dealing either of them. I could see the Yanks trying to move Molina, but I can't see him bringing much in return. Among the position players on the major-league roster, the one who probably has the most value is the slick-fielding Ramiro Pena. And, I hope the Yankees aren't willing to give him up.

Among the pitchers, the only one on the big-league club right now I can see teams asking about -- probably in a deal for a proven reliever -- is David Robertson. Jonathan Albaladejo, recently optioned to AAA, might also be appealing to some teams since he is still only 26. I'm honestly not sure how much value other teams seen in Wilkin De La Rosa, Christian Garcia or Michael Dunn, other pitchers on the 40-man roster. De La Rosa might be the best prospect of that group. Other than first baseman Juan Miranda, who I don't see as any sort of real bargaining chip, there is no one else among position players worth discussing on the 40-man roster.

None of these guys would be nearly enough to swing a deal for any sort of impact reliever -- such as Colorado's Huston Street.

The rest of the system

This is where it gets interesting. Analysts who study the minor leagues will tell you most of the Yankee talent is at AA and below, and not on the 40-man roster. From SBN's fine blog Minor League Ball, here is a ranking of the Top 20 prospects in the Yankee system.

To swing any sort of major deal, the Yankees will likely have to be willing to surrender some of the talent off this list.

The top five players on MLB's list, in order, are: Jesus Montero (C), Austin Jackson (OF), Dellin Betances (P), Austin Romine (C) and Zach McCallister (P). Guys like pitchers Mark Melancon and Andrew Brackman are top 10 prospects who aren't going anywhere. Jeremy Bleich, last year's second-round draft pick, also is not going anywhere.

With the emergence of Cervelli, and with Montero so highly regarded, I could see Romine, currently at Class A Tampa, used in a deal. McCallister (3-2, 1.91 ERA at AA Trenton) might also be trade bait.

George Kontos and Zach Kroenke are pitchers whose stock has apparently been rising, and who might have value in a trade.

Other guys who at one time were highly regarded but have slid down the prospect list would be pitchers Alan Horne and J.B. Cox. Not sure if either of them has value to other teams.

Summary

I admit that I don't have an exhaustive knowledge of the Yankee farm system. It looks to me, though, that the Yankees don't have enough in terms of 'tradeable' prospects to outbid teams with deeper systems player-for-player.

The Yankees' ability to make an impact trade might come down, as it seemingly always does, to the Steinbrenner checkbook. To make a deal for someone like Street, or an impact bat like Matt Holliday (which I find highly unlikely) the Yankees might just have to rely on their ability/willingness to take on contracts no one else will touch.

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Pena?

I don’t see how he would have much value as a trade chip. As “slick-fielding” as some people think he is, he’s been occasionally shaky with the glove, and made 21 errors in Trenton last year.

His 635 OPS in the minor leagues isn’t exactly impressive either, and he’s never shown the ability to be a successful base-stealer.

He’s a backup infielder/late game defensive replacement/pinch runner. I can’t imagine anybody would want him.

by New York Sports Jerk on May 28, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting analysis

Doesn’t seem like there are any real trade chips available. But does that matter?

Does anyone really think the Yanks need to make a trade at this point? They’ve got 6 starting pitchers; more than enough catchers (once Jorge and Molina recover); two RFs (if/when Nady heals). Their biggest need, by far, is bullpen help. But since just about everyone’s bullpen sucks these days, they should look within their own system for that – or encourage/allow/force the starters to go a little longer. As for trades, there’s no reason to even think about them now.

by cph on May 28, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One point where we differ

I don’t want to see a ‘middle’ guy added to the bullpen, or even an outfielder. I think, though, that if you can add a big-time late-inning reliever you have to consider it. There is no guarantee Bruney will come back healthy and effective.

by Ed Valentine on May 28, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously

IF you can add a big-time reliever, you have to do it. However, teams with good bullpens are typically in contention and don’t trade away their best reliever.

The Yankees need to find someone in their system to bolster the bullpen.

Oh, look, there’s one! It’s Joba Chamberlain. He’s a little tired from his latest 84 pitch, 4 inning outing, but he’s already shown he’s suited more to going full tilt for two innings out of the pen.

But hey, what do I know? Nobody wants to admit that Joba isn’t suited to starting, but nobody can deny he’s better as a two-pitch reliever than a four pitch starter who can’t make it to the 7th inning.

by New York Sports Jerk on May 28, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK - a big time late inning reliever would be a nice pickup

Somehow the Yanks have historically not had too much success in finding those guys via trade in the middle of a season, however.

I have heard about this kid named Joba who’s supposed to be pretty good in the 8th inning, though.

by cph on May 28, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So old ... so tired ... so pointless

to keep going back to that.

by Ed Valentine on May 28, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, pointless...

All the “start Joba” people rely on that old chestnut about how it’s better to have him for 200 innings than 80, without admitting that there’s a reasonable possibility given his history that he’ll NEVER be able to handle 200 innings.

From a strict standpoint of effectiveness, fill in the blanks for me using the words starter and reliever:

Joba Chamberlain is better as a _____________ than as a _______________.

Call it pointless all you want, but Joba is never going to be the ace you think he is. That’s my point, and I’m sticking with it until I’m proven right.

by New York Sports Jerk on May 28, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a thought

Let’s send down Cash and convert Joba to a catcher. That way we can bat him 5th behind A-Rod.

On his days off we can put him in the upper deck chucking peanuts.

Also he’s a marsupial, and like the platypus has a poisonous thorn behind his ankles.

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on May 28, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's your proof

That your wrong, Joba is the Yanks #2 best starter right now.

He’s been coming along with the IP thing, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Texas game has an extremely long rain delay.

THe guy’s 23. Why the hell anyone in their right mind would automatically take a guy who’s been a starter his whole life, with his stuff, and make him a reliever.

I know its kind of a big if, but IF Joba never was forced into the pen, then no one ever mentions the “R” word.

Joba is not CC right now, but so what? His injuries, and screwing with his arm when making him a reliever, has caused him to get set back a bit.

by FreeBradshaw on May 28, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Small sample sizes are not proof...

…of anything. FACT is, Joba Chamberlain has never thrown 120 innings in any season. Not in the majors. Not in the minors. Not in college. He had arm trouble in college, he’s had it at the big league level.

And I’d argue Andy Pettitte has been the Yankees 2nd best starter this season, for the simple reason that he averages a full inning more per start, and that’s excluding Joba’s early exit against Baltimore.

I’m not rooting against Joba’s success as a starter, but I’m skeptical that he’ll ever overcome his inability to pitch quick innings.

by New York Sports Jerk on May 28, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if he truly shows an inability

to throw 200 innings, then a move to the pen should be made. but he has to be given a legitimate chance to do that, which means having a rotation spot through at least the 2010 season.

if he cant go more than 120 ip in a season by then, and if the doctors think it’s BECAUSE he cant handle the workload, then converting him makes sense. but thats a long way off.

by Travis G on May 28, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro Martinez came up and dominated in the

pen as a rookie. His age 21 season he had a 2.61 ERA in about 100 innings. People saw his potential to do more and put him in the starting rotation.

22- 3.42 ERA- 144 innings
23- 3.51 ERA- 194 innings
24- 3.70 ERA- 214 innings
25- 1.90 ERA- 241 innings

I’m just saying that doing well in the bullpen and becoming a good starting pitcher aren’t mutually exclusive.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on May 28, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bullpen to me is for failed starters

do you remember that none other than Mariano Rivera was a starter?

Look at his numbers in 1995, and compare them to Joba’s now. If Joba ends up with the ERA over 5 when this season is over, maybe this gets revisited.

Its absolutely too old and pointless. The guys a starter. A 23! y/o one at that.

Most teams in their right mind just don’t say the hell with him and make him a setup guy. It doesn’t make any sense.

Id rather have a excellent #2-3 starter than an excellent Setup guy any day. Anyone if they throw enough strikes can come in and get 3 outs.

by FreeBradshaw on May 28, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The pen is for pitchers who cannot develop more than 2 decent pitches. Most relievers usually only have 1 good pitch and a passable second pitch.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on May 28, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Should have signed Juan Cruz

while he was available. I’ve been saying this since ’08 FA began. His terrible career BB/9 is compensated by his ability to miss bats.

Right now, the Yankees aren’t going to part ways with their top-tier prospects to land a big-time reliever. With middle relievers being such crap-shoots historically, the Yankees are better off looking within their own system for help.

by BigSlim on May 28, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weak Minor League System

It is obvious that the Yankees have one of the worst minor league system right now. I do not see any blue chip prospects who are can’t miss prospects. They need to be more agressive to build their system. I do not mean to grow in-house prospects to use as trade baits though.

by yankeesintexas on May 28, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How many "cant miss" prospects are there in baseball?

That you’re complaining we don’t have any? =Right now it appears we have a poor farm system because most of our talen is still in single A. Fortunately though those teams are absolutely filled with future studs. In the next few years as this years Tampa team starts getting into Double and Triple A we’ll be in the top 5.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on May 28, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs