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Around SBN: The Week In Worst: When Baseball Goes Wrong

A quarter of the season gone - what have we learned?

After 41 games, what have we learned about the Yankees?

Defense -

Their defense has improved markedly. After ranking 12th (out of 14) in the AL last season, the additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, along with the improved play of Robbie Cano and Melky Cabrera, have pushed the Yanks up to sixth. Still not great, but above average. (FYI, the last three teams to lead the league in Defensive Efficiency have won the pennant (the '05 White Sox came in second).)

Offense -

The appropriately named Bombers currently lead the league in runs/game (5.66). Accounting for the ballpark gives them the top hitting offense in the game (116 OPS+).

What's surprising is that the Yanks were actually scoring more runs in April than they have been in May. They ranked 4th in April runs, and sit at 12th in May runs.

Cano -

I won't say Cano's having a breakout season because he's done it before (2007), but he's certainly having a tremendous come-back year. After three more hits last night, his season batting line is .317/.354/.527. Combining that with his stellar defense makes him the third best AL second-baseman (Ian Kinsler is incredible). I don't think he'll maintain that batting line, but there's no reason he shouldn't continue playing great D.

Melky -

Is this merely a hot streak, or is this closer to the new-and-improved Melky Cabrera? He's the 12th best centerfielder in baseball right now (out of 29), sitting ahead of such stars as B.J. Upton, Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells. He hasn't been spectacular at hitting or fielding, but has been solid at both. We are hopefully witnessing the true break-out season of Melky, and will look back at this season and wonder why we ever doubted him.

Star-divide

Tex -

While he hasn't been great so far, he's been, like Melky, solid on both offense and defense. And when you compare him to our former first-baseman, the difference is staggering; Jason Giambi is ranked dead last among everyday first-basemen, and has cost the A's four runs. Tex, on the other hand, has been worth 11 runs. That's a 15 run difference, and we're only a quarter of the way through the season!

Damon -

He's been a very pleasant surprise - in fact, he's been our best hitter: .318/.387/.597 for a 154 OPS+. There's no way he'll maintain that though.

Swisher -

An incredibly up and down 41 games for Swish. He started the year on an absolute tear (1.144 OPS in April), but has tanked since then (.446 OPS). He'll end up somewhere in between. His defense, though, has kept him among the best right-fielders (currently ranked 7th), because most RFers cost their team runs, whereas Swisher has been average.

Pitching -

Both the starters and relievers have disappointed. Despite ranking second in strikeouts, the staff is third from the bottom in runs allowed. However, Chien Ming-Wang is an aberration - no pitcher with the track record he has will be that bad over a season. So if we remove his stats from the pitching line, it brings the starters' ERA down from 5.13 to 4.34.

The same can be said for relievers like Anthony Claggett and Damaso Marte. Removing their awful stats improves the bullpen ERA a full run, from 5.37 to 4.37.

Starters -

What we've seen from CC (3.43 ERA), Joba (3.70) and Andy (4.18) is likely what we'll get all season. The good news is that Burnett, Wang and Hughes should only improve.

Best game -

The 5-4 win over Minnesota was the best win of the year. Facing one of the game's best closers (Joe Nathan), the Yankees rallied for two runs in the bottom of the 9th, completed by a Melky Cabrera walk-off single.

Worst game(s) -

The embarrassing 22-4 debacle at the hands of the Indians, and the 5-4 loss in Boston when Mo blew the save. If Mo had closed out that game (like he does nine times out of 10), the Yanks sit atop the AL East now.

 

To sum up, the Yankees are not as great as the current winning streak suggests, but not as bad as they played until the streak. They're in prime position to make the playoffs (1.5 games out of first) - whether it's the division or the wild card is TBD.

Poll
Playoffs?
Definitely
330 votes
Maybe
127 votes
No way
21 votes

478 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 8 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Great Stuff

but Swisher gets on my nerves somtimes

by JackofAllTrades on May 22, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Why

Don’t you think Cano can keep his 317 batting average up all season? Have you seen his stroke? One of the most natural swings I have ever seen.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on May 22, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions  

ok, i should've clarified

i do believe he can hit .317 for the year, but its mostly the SLG that will decline. his career batting line is .303/.336/.471. his current batting line is .310/.346/.515.

i sure hope he can maintain that though.

by Travis G on May 23, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think Damon

can keep up the hot hitting
he is in a contract year and he is a lefty hitting at our launching pad so i expect him to keep on keeping on

by Brian5517209 on May 22, 2009 9:53 PM EDT reply actions  

fair point

re: the short porch, but still, a 154 OPS+! that’s crazy, and well beyond what Damon’s ever done in his career. his best OPS+ is 118, and he’s past his prime, so it’s highly unlikely.

by Travis G on May 23, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

OF Defense

I think the defense in the OF has been consistently weak all season. It seems as if none of our outfielders can reach home plate from the short out field.

by DjFog86 on May 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

?

Really?

Aside from Damon’s arm, the OF defense is quite good. Swisher isn’t the greatest, but he’s light years better than Abreu.

Damon can reach anything out there in death valley still, tho of course with his crap arm he can’t really do anything if someone’s on base.

Gardner’s arm is pretty good.

And Melky’s cannon can probably reach home plate from the CF Wall….

by FreeBradshaw on May 23, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

strong arms

are only a small (but highly visisbe) part of OF defense. the most important aspect is range (e.g. catching the ball), bc that turns balls in play into outs. even the best OF arms gun down about 20 runners a year. the most ‘rangy’ OFers make hundreds of outs in a year.

going by UZR (ultimate zone rating), the difference between the best and worst OF arm was 18 runs (in 2008). the difference between the best and worst OFers in terms of range was 50 runs. so range is roughly 2.5 more important than arm.

by Travis G on May 23, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

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