It's prediction time

jscape predictions...

Jscape, thank you for picking the Yankees to win the AL East, but WHAT ARE YOU THINKING with the AL Wildcard, NL East?

I can’t believe you think the A’s take the wildcard over the Red Sox or Rays? I mean yea, the A’s are stocked full of talent, but it is VERY young talent. In my opinion not proven enough to bring this team to 90+ wins over the long season.

Second, the Marlins over the defending champion Phillies, wow! Yes the Mets have a much better product on the field this year with the pitching so I’m ok with them winning the NL East. But what do you see in the Marlins that puts them over the Phillies? The only knock I can put on the Phillies is that Moyer is another year older and Hamels looks shaky with an elbow issue. But they’re lineup is stronger with Ibanez, IMO (Burrell was a all or nothing batter, HR/Double or bust), and Werth is with no doubt going to have more of an impact this season.

Maybe you made some of those pics to break the mold, but wow, I don’t know?

-go yanks

by Keatgsr07 on Apr 5, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a little to break the mold, with the A's

I could have a man-crush on Billy Beane.
Last year Oakland boasted one of the most effective pitching staffs in the league, with 5 starters under 28 years old making 10+ GS.
They won 75 games, even though they had the second worst offensive in the league.
Check out the WARP3 adjustment of the lineup:
Bobby Crosby 3.4 wins Cabrera 4.9= +1.5 wins
Daric Barton 2.5 wins Giambi 3.5= +1 win
Emil Brown 1.1 wins Holliday 7.1 wins= +6 wins. Cut it down to +5 for the Coors effect?

That’s a 7 win improvement just from 3 players. Not only have the A’s revamped their offense and defense, they have starting quality hitters coming off the bench in Garciaparra and last year’s starters.

Just now I looked up the BP Depth Chart, which has the team’s PECOTA projection. They actually pick the A’s to win a very weak division. My scenario calls for the Angels and A’s to pound the other 2 teams into the dust. Angels win 97, A’s win 94. Red Sox and Rays win 93.

The Marlins are legit.
Last year the Marlins finished 3rd in the division after trading away their best player for a pair of talented but raw studs on the cusp. Just like the Rays took a big step forward when they finally found a good CF, I expect the Marlins to begin the Cameron Maybin era in style. His glove was legit GG last season, and I think his bat will step up. Cody Ross (.260/.316/.488) is a notch above league average as a hitter, but Maybin is a multi-win improvement.
Add a step forward or some health for two of three in starters Sanchez, Miller, and Johnson, and this team goes from 84 wins to 90.
The Phillies didn’t make any big additions this offseason, though a full season from Joe Blanton could help. But Utley is hurting, and Hamels is already sore. I don’t love their bullpen or Pedro Feliz.
I think the Mets will run away with the division, and scrappy underdog Marlins will slip past the Brewer, Cards, and Phils.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 5, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Phillies picked up Ibanez

who’s an improvement over Burrell IMHO. Still the Marlins aren’t a terrible pick.

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Apr 5, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although

I also feel the Marlins’ line-up needs a veteran guy in there somewhere. I mean who’s the leader in that clubhouse when things go bad, Jorge Cantu?

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Apr 5, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how could

Yankee fans predict Boston and Tampa to win the division?

by Soriano NY 12 on Apr 5, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Objectivity

I am trying to make my picks without being a homer. I don’t want the Red Sox to win the division, but objectively I think they will.

by Ed Valentine on Apr 5, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's the Arod injury

if not for that, i’m picking them to win the division. 6 weeks of Cody Ransom instead of Arod could cost the Yanks several wins.

plus Tampa will have a fully healthy Upton, and Longoria and Price for the whole year. it’ll be very close, but they’re AL champs. tough to pick against them.

by Travis G on Apr 5, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

predictions

Sox fan here! Don’t throw any large rockz plz!!

I am with you ETVal, well mostly.

I believe the Sox have the edge because of the ARod injury. Remember it is the same injury Mike Lowell had and everyone is wondering if he is washed up. ARod may not be 100% until this time next year.

I think Baltimore with finish behind Toronto. Baltimore’s starting pitching is a joke.

Detroit, I believe will finish ahead of Kansas City. Milwaukee ahead of Pittsburgh.

Its going to be a great seson!

by wdogg72 on Apr 5, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Ill throw a small rock…….kidding, Im in Massachussets for college and you Boston fans have been nice so far, so Ill leave you alone.

I think that people thinking that the Rays are gonna repeat are in for a rude awakening. The Yankees were out of it last year cuz of the injuries. They shouldn’t be an excuse, but you have to be real cuz they lost a whole lot of guys. The Rays will be good, but the Yanks and Sox will be too much. Too much pitching on either side and while the Rays guys are good, they still don’t match up.

The Sox and Yanks are gonna be battling it out. I hope both stay healthy and they meet in the playoffs cuz I love watching that in October.

by FreeBradshaw on Apr 5, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod

1B Youk or Tex? Tex by a bit. Better power, younger, more rbis, equal in defense
2B Pedroia or Cano? Pedroia is a gamer, and I would easily pick him. Though if Cano is as on target as he looks this spring, look out. His benching and his buddies demotion last season seems to have taught him a lesson
3B Lowell or A-Rod? No question. Lowell vs. Ransom untill mid May? Well no question there either
SS Lowrie or Jeter? I won’t bother
C Posada or Tek? Watching Tek bat is painful. Between the two warhorses, Posada has always been better both at bat and with throwing runners out
LF Jason Bay or Damon? Jason Bay
CF Ellsbury or Gardner? Too similar kinda guys to tell
RF Drew or Nady? If you use the past two seasons as a barometer then it’s Nady
DH Papi or Godzilla? Big papi of course. But if Matsui stays healthy expect 90-100 rbi

Maybe I am crazy? Where does all this noise about the Sox having a MUCH better lineup come from? It’s gonna be a slugfest. But I truly and sincerely believe the Yankees are the better team on paper. Let’s see if it translates between the lines

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 5, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ellsbury is a much better player

than Gardner at this point.

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Apr 5, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nady isn't better than Drew

(1) Drew is a much better defensive player. Drew has a career UZR in RF of 22.8. Nady has a career UZR of -3.8 in RF
(2) Drew is a significantly better career hitter:
Drew – .284 AVG/.392 OBP/.502 SLG/.894 OPS (129 OPS)
Nady – .280 AVG/.335 OPS/.458 SLG/.793 OPS (108 OPS+)
(3) Drew was better over the past two seasons, which include Drew’s career worst (2007) and Nady’s career best (2008):
Drew – OPS .854
Nady – OPS .840

Nady is a slightly better than league average hitter over his career, with the exception of 89 games with the Pirates last year. In contrast, Drew has been significantly better than league average in 8 of 10 seasons. His problem has been staying healthy. When he plays, he has been almost as good at the plate as Mark Teixeira:

Drew (career) – .284 AVG/.392 OBP/.502 SLG/.894 OPS (129 OPS+)
Teixeira (career) – .290 AVG .378 OBP/ .541 SLG/ .919 OPS (134 OPS+)

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 5, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, you have to compare OPS+

bc Nady played in the NL most of the last two years.

2007:
Nady, 107 OPS+
Drew, 105 OPS+

2008:
Nady, 128 OPS+
Drew, 135 OPS+

they’re almost exactly even. it’s a lot closer than most would think. when you throw in that Nady’s played 25 more games, it’s basically dead even.

Drew does have an advantage on D, but it aint that big. He’s about 6 runs better over the course of a season (in RF).

I think Drew’s better, but it might be closer than many think.

by Travis G on Apr 5, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It really isn't

2007 was Drew’s worst season since his rookie year. Nady’s ‘07 was pretty much his average year, right around his 108 career OPS+. 2008 was career year for Nady. His 128 OPS+ was roughly JD Drew’s career OPS+ (129). And, Nady’s OPS+ in his 59 games with the Yankees last year was 105.

The odds of Nady posting an OPS+ better than 107 aren’t great, as he has only done that once (in 89 games for Piitsburgh last year). In contrast, Drew has had only 3 seasons where he posted an OPS+ less than 120.

By looking at only the last two seasons should weigh things heavily in Nady’s favor. But it doesn’t. Nady’s 2008 numbers were much better than anything he has ever posted. Drew’s 2007 was miserable. Drew’s bad year is Nady’s average year and Nady’s career year is roughly Drew’s career average. They really aren’t close.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 6, 2009 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the passage in question

was “RF Drew or Nady? If you use the past two seasons as a barometer then it’s Nady.”

i disagreed with that but stated it might be closer than generally thought, using the 2-year period as evidence. i compared them only over the last 2 years, not their whole careers. and i wanted to point out that you shouldn’t compare two players via regular OPS (unless they’re on the same team).

by Travis G on Apr 6, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Id go with Ellsbury and Drew over Nady and Gardner. Drew has been real clutch and

And Id also say Tex is better by more than a bit. Youk is one of the better 1st basman in the league, but Tex is probably THE best in the league. Maybe Lance Fat Elvis Berkman compares, but Tex is a machine.

But Id also go with a healthy Godzilla right now over a declining Papi. Ortiz has to show me he is back to his clutch form in order to proclaim him back. When Matsui’s in the lineup he has been nothing but consistent.

And aside from the idiot Boston Media/ESPN, who the hell said Boston’s lineup was better? I’ve been hearing that their pitching staff and minor league arms are God’s gift to baseball. But their lineup has to be more of a questionmark than the Yanks.

by FreeBradshaw on Apr 5, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not

Ortiz, in a year where he had a torn carpal sheath, put up an OPS+ 0f 123, that is Matsui’s career OPS+. Furthermore, Matsui is older and likely more borken down than Ortiz at this point. Look, it is simple, the Yankees have the hitting advantage at 1b, ss, 3b,c. The Sox have the hitting advantage at 2b, lf,rf,cf,and dh. Some of these are close and you could argue it either way. The Yankees have a starting rotation advantage, the Sox a fielding advantage and the pens are a wash. It will be a very competitive season with 4 of the best starting rotations in baseball in the same division, and perhaps the top 3 teams. For once, Bradshaw, you are right, prediction means nothing here. With things this close, anything can happen.

The Yankees were injured a lot last year, but so were the Sox, who won 95 games with Schilling, who had a very strong 07, going down in March, with DL stints from Beckett, Wakefield, Colon, and Dice-K, and with Drew, Lowell and Ortiz all hurt for major portions of the season. They were 6 innings from going to the WS, even with Lowell out and Beckett hobbled in the playoffs. We are talking about good, deep teams here, and that is where health, breaks, and performance will all matter.

by Buzzy on Apr 6, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Albert Pujols?

“Youk is one of the better 1st basman in the league, but Tex is probably THE best in the league. Maybe Lance Fat Elvis Berkman compares…”

by cjmulrain on Apr 6, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Nobody is better than Pujols.Though I think Tex may be a slightly better defender. But Pujols could retire tomorrow and make it into Cooperstown.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols

Pujols is a significantly better defender than even Teix. According to some metrics, Pujols defense is worth about an extra double of offense per game. I don’t really believe that, but it does say a lot about his defense. He is simply the gold standard both offensively and defensively.

by Buzzy on Apr 6, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

saux fan

ha, I spent 4 years at URI and after that I carry rocks on me… but it seems this one comes in peace

by Keatgsr07 on Apr 5, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Traitors

In all the years since the Yankees last WS win should you pick them to win the East, this one is it. You guys have been listening to ESPN and MLB Network too much. The Yankees have the best pitching in the division. When Pettite and Chamberlain are your 4th and 5th guy you have one hell of a starting 5. No disrespect to the Sox or Rays but the Yankees are fully loaded. Lets just compare to the Sox
Starters:

1) CC or Beckett? Close but CC has a Win% of .616 Beckett .589
2) Wang or DiceK? Wang is 54-20, DiceK is 33-15
3) AJ Burnett or Lester? I like Lester, his Whip is 1.393, AJ’s is 1.284 I would say Lester has the potential to be an ace one day.
4) Andy Pettite or Wakefield? Andy is 215-127, Wakey is 178 – 157 and Andy hasn’t won less than 14 since his injury in 04
5) Joba or Smoltz/Penny? Remains to be seen, if either Smoltz or Penny can recature their 07 numbers they will be fine. If Joba stays healthy this kid has the talent to be a number 1 some day.

Pens:
Sox have advantage in mid relief. Though Yankees pen did outstanding job last season having to mop up after the injured starters and roughed up kids. The pens are a lot closer in talent then the media lets you believe. Yanks have some great arms in that pen. Saito was a great addition though so I will give the sox the advantage with Saito and Okajima.

Closer:
Mo. Sorry. Papelbon is a GREAT closer but look at the Godfather’s stats. I don’t even need to post them. What I would be slightly worried about for Boston is that Pap’s Whip and IP went up and his SO went down from 07-08.

Could the Sox win the division? Absolutely. Can the Rays do it again? Possible but highly unlikely.

Any self respecting Yankees fan on a Yankee blog predicting either Boston or the Rays to finish first are either
1) trying to use reverse jinx psychology
2) are easily influenced by the media
3) aren’t really Yankee fans

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 5, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we have

the best pitching staff in the league
plus Bruney and Marte make a solid middle relief tandem

by Brian5517209 on Apr 5, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon, Happy

Shoot, I’ve been a Yankee fan for 40 years. You’re telling me I’m not a real fan because I didn’t pick them to win the division? Does that mean Pirates fans, or Royals fans, or Nationals fans aren’t real fans if they don’t pick their teams to win their divisions? I don’t think so. I think they can, of course, but they did finish 3rd last year and the two teams in front of them have not exactly gotten worse.

by Ed Valentine on Apr 5, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ETVal

Yes, that is EXACTLY what I am saying. This season statistically we have the best team we have had in years. We are every bit as good as the Sox in every category if not better in many. I am sorry, the Rays are young, took the division by storm because no one saw them coming last year, it will not happen this year. If you are a Pirates fan and pick them over the Phillies or Mets, I salute you’re vigor but I will call you a fool. The Pirates simply do not have the team to win. The Yankees have the lineup and rotation to win 95-100 games Hell, I would pick this team over the 1998 Yankees team. If this team on paper belonged to Oakland, Detroit or Houston every single columnist would pick them for the WS. Since this is a Yankees team, the press is taking a dump on them. So are you. Fan indeed. To be a Yankees fan and not predict them to win the East this year is either stupidity, cowardice or ignorance. Will they win? Who knows, but this is the best well rounded Yankees team I have seen in many many years.

They finished 3rd last year? You mean 8 games back after losing Posada, Matsui, Wang and Jeter nursing a wrist inury? Huh, I wonder what Boston would have done if they lost DiceK, Tek and Bay. The pitching rotation was a ruinous mess other than Mussina. So in the offseason, the Rays and Sox made minor strides. The Yankees pick up one of the top 3 first baseman in baseball, the two best pitching free agents in baseball and you don’t expect them to make up those 8 games?

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 5, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait..

“You mean 8 games back after losing Posada, Matsui, Wang and Jeter nursing a wrist inury? Huh, I wonder what Boston would have done if they lost DiceK, Tek and Bay.”

You mean on top of us losing Beckett, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz, with Lowrie playing with a fractured wrist for the second half of the season?

I would argue that the Red Sox faced even worse injuries than the Yankees did, and would have won the division (IMO) had it not been for them.
I think the Yanks have got a hell of a team this year; but I think that Sabathia and Burnett will not pay off as well as you’d hoped. After all, Sabathia, while in the AL, had a 6-8 record with a 3.83 ERA. On top of that, he has thrown 500 innings over the last 2 years; its highly likely that will catch up to him some time during this contract.
Burnett, despite the flashy strikeout count, was really average last season. His WHIP was an atrocious 1.34, and his ERA was over 4. On top of him being a huge injury risk.

by Charger567 on Apr 5, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm

Sabathia not panning out. Yeah I mean the guy only won 106 and lost 71 in the AL. You’re right, he only won a Cy Young 2 seasons ago. Burnett was average? You mean 18-10 in AL East while dominating both the Red Sox and Yankees? WTF are you babbling about. Hey man, go enjoy your Boston lovefest, lets see which team is in 1st place in Oct.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Believe me

I want the Yankees to win, and I know they CAN. I did pick them to make the playoffs, and really what difference does it make whether they get in via division or wild card? I expect them to make up enough to get into the playoffs. And I still disagree that you aren’t a real fan unless you pick your team to win.
One more thing. I would hope that, since we are all on the same side as people who love the Yankees, I never, ever see you refer to someone as Stupid, Ignorant or a Coward again here at PA. Attack the post, not the poster. We are all, or should all, be friends here.
That’s the kind of site we want to have.

by Ed Valentine on Apr 6, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The difference?

The difference is you are not in the media and therefore have to maintain some semblance of impartiality. This year the Yankees have the deepest rotation and versatile lineup in the past 10 years. The Red Sox have won the division once this decade, that Yankees have won it 7 times. Are we on the same side? Your Boston love makes me think about that. If any Boston fan on a Boston Fan Blog picked the Yanks to win the division they would have their hat handed to them. Hey wanna pick against your team on a fan site but don’t want the push back? Can’t always have both.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never did I say

You need to pick your team to win or you are not a fan. But in this instance, with how dangerously good the Yankees look, how deep they are, how Boston can’t seem to win the division except once in 07, and how they have barely improved their team you still picked them to win. A Nationals fan picking the Phillies to win or Mets is smart and honest. A Yankees fan picking Boston is to me a fairweather fan. I would feel the same level of disgust at a “True” Red Sox fan picking the Yankees to win the division.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Push back all you want

That’s what the site is here for — to have discussion. All I ask is that we do it in a friendly manner. We all can, and will. But, we are all here because we love the Yankees and we all want more WS titles.

by Ed Valentine on Apr 6, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I call your fandom into question

I personally think you are a media influenced quasi-fan. I personally don’t think I have seen a team this potentially good since 08. Boston is a great team but they weren’t able to take the division last season. This year the Yanks are reloaded and and force, vastly improved from last season while the Sox acquisitions are gambles at best.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

No one has seen a team this good since ’08.

by stusviews on Apr 6, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

calm down

it’s called objectivity. maybe you should try it.

would you call a Pirates fan picking the Cubs to win their division a ‘traitor’?

perhaps ‘pessimist’ is the word you’re looking for.

by Travis G on Apr 6, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have addressed this question before if you have bothered to read any of my other posts. No, a Pirates fan picking the Cubs is not a traitor. He is realistic. Now a manager of a New York Yankees Fan Blog who picks the Red Sox to win the division, when the Sox have only won the division once this decade is irritable. You are not using objectivity, hell you want objectivity go to Baseball Prospectus and even they have picked the Yankees. So with all the objective facts on display, with a team that we have dreamed about for years you still pick the rival team? I find your objectivity suspect, and I question your motivation, if your motivations are sincere than I question you really being a fan. Who would the Yankees had to sign besides Texiera, AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia for you to pick your home team? Pujols? Halladay? The Easter Bunny? As for calming down, I am very calm. I just sense that you are not comfortable being called out on your prediction. If this was a MLB fan blog than hey, I respect your call even if I would disagree. But you as someone who is intimate with this site AND a Yankee fan calling it for the Sox is irksome. Like betting against your cousin in a boxing match when even Vegas has your cousin as the favorite. Oh and by the way Vegas does have the Yankees as the favorite.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BPro

picked the Yanks before Arod’s injury. i wonder how their projections would look now.

by Travis G on Apr 7, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right on here.

ESPN is a bunch of Red Sux fans just like they love the Patriots and Cowgirls and North Carolina and Duke and the Lakers and Celtcis and Lebron’s nuts. They don’t really have much to say anymore.

The Yanks pitching actually can blow away the Sux pitching. CC is nothing but a workhorse, while Beckett has been hit and miss in the regular season (tho he’s lights out in the playoffs).

Dice K was a true aberration last year. The guy throws 10000 pitches in 5 innings and wins 18 games? Testament to the bullpen yea, but gonna happen this year, I think not. I also think teams will start to touch him up. You don’t leave all those runners on base 2 years in a row.

And yea, this is some reverse psychology crap. I know its no excuse of course, but if the Yankees at the very least had Wang for a full season there is a definite chance they make the playoffs. Now they subtract Mussina Ponson rasner for CC Burnett and a full season to start off with Joba, its not really even this close.

It may be a 3 team race, but the Yanks look the best right now.

by FreeBradshaw on Apr 5, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

I’ve been doing this for twenty years and I am very predictable. I always (and I mean always) get between 4 and 6 of the playoff teams right, usually 4 or 5. So take these with a grain of salt.

AL East

Boston
Yankees (wc)
Tampa
Toronto
Baltimore

The three best teams in the majors are here. Boston doesn’t really have a weakness so I am holding my nose and picking them. The A-Rod injury will cost a win or two (or more if he is out past May). We can certainly take them in a seven game series and both teams from the east will be heavy favorites in the first round of the playoffs. Tampa will take a step back as any injury leaves them more vulnerable than the Yanks or Sox. Toronto may move Halladay midseason. The Orioles are on the right track for the first time in twelve years but unfortunately that track leads them into a brick wall in the shape of Yanks-Sox.

AL Central

Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City
Chicago

First to worst for the Sox as Floyd overperformed and the regulars are getting old. I wish I could condition this pick. If Mauer is healthy then the Twins are the team to beat. If not, Cleveland will sneak by. Cleveland only has two starters (Pavano!!!!) which in most divisions would eliminate them. Detroit won’t be as bad as people think because of the upgrades in defense. KC is improving and may win 80.

AL West

Oakland
Angels
Seattle
Texas

I agree with the above commenter on Oakland. They won’t be very good but they won’t need to be to win with the Angels having huge injury problems and an offense that gets worse every year. Seattle and Texas may fight for the worst record in the AL and give Oakland and LA better records than they deserve.

NL East

Mets
Florida
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Washington

The Phillies are going down. Moyer pitched way over his head. Lidge is good but can’t be as good as last year. Ibanez is a step down from Burrell and Hamels is an injury risk. This leaves the Mets by default. The Mets starters worry me but they will be in the market for Peavy/Halladay by midseason. The Marlins are my surprise team with great young pitching and Hanley. The Braves are going to be a .500 team and the Nationals may lose 100 again.

NL Central

Cubs
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Houston

Nothing to see here. The Cubs are the best team in the NL and should win by 20. The Reds are the fashionable pick but may struggle to break .500. The other teams all have huge weaknesses and I’m getting tired of typing.

NL West

Arizona
Los Angeles (wildcard)
San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego

There are a lot of bad teams in the NL with San Diego, Colorado join the Nats and the Central 4 as worse than most AL teams. The DBacks have solid starting and hitting that is getting better. If you put the Giants pitching with the Dodgers hitting, you’d have the best team in the majors. The Dodgers pitching is less of a weakness than the Giants hitting though and that should give them second and the wild card.

by stusviews on Apr 5, 2009 9:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox have plenty of weaknesses.

Papi and Lowell are old, Youk and Pedrioa are great, but they produced at MVP caliber rates last year. They each are not Pujols or A-Rod so you’d be crazy to think they are gonna be MVP candidates again. Jason Bay is very good too, but he can’t shin Manny’s shoes and lets see if he get accustomed to the Monster liek Manny did.

Also the starters are much more of a question than the Yanks.

by FreeBradshaw on Apr 5, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say that

First off, Papi is only 33. Lowell, who knows, but I’m not ready to mark him down as a weakness. He didn’t hit badly in 08, despite coming off a big injury. He hit .275, with 17 home runs in about 450 at bats. I expect him to rebound from the injury, improving on those numbers. Hardly a weakness.

As for Pedroia, why not? 2008 was his second great year in the majors. He hit .317 in 580 at bats in 07, and his OBP was even higher than in 08 at .380. He hit for a little more power in 2008, and made a few more steal attempts. That’s really it; despite him not competing for a GG in 07, his defense was just as good as it was in 08.
As for Youkilis, the only thing that changed between 07 and 08 was that he was able to match his numbers for the 1st half of 07 for the whole season. Maybe he got in better shape. Who knows, but he has always shown the ability to hit like he did in 08, and he matched his .390 OBP. His defense has always been world class, no denying that.

And no, Jason Bay is no Manny Ramirez, but the Sox did just as well after Manny left as they did when he was still with them. He was a clubhouse cancer; overused cliche, I know, but never more true than in the case of Manny Ramirez. His shitty attitude was the only thing in the world capable of overshadowing his unmatchable hitting ability.

The starters? I don’t really think so.
The Yanks rotation is incredibly injury prone. Wang spent half of 08 on the DL, Burnett spent half his career on the DL, and Chamberlain’s shoulder gave in last year. As for Sabathia, I’m not completely convinced. He may be a workhorse, or he may be on thin ice. He’s huge, but not exactly an athlete. After combining for 500 innings of 2 years, you can’t possibly tell me he can maintain that over the course of his contract. And Pettitte? He’s consistent, and consistently below average at age 37. He went 14-14 last year, with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP over 1.42. In fact, he was never really all that good..

On the other hand:
Lester is solid. Wakefield, though not a great pitcher, has been consistent his whole career, and isn’t showing signs of slowing down. Beckett is not a hit or miss; he’s going to be a good pitcher this year. He may or may not be great, but he’s going to be good. Daisuke was dirty last year; he may or may not put up the same numbers, but he’s not going to be bad. Come on now.
As for the 5 slot, I think we’re more secure than people think. We have no established pitchers to throw in here; but we have enough shit to throw against the wall that something has to stick. If not Penny, then Buchholz. If not Buchholz, then Smoltz. If not Smoltz, then Bowden or Masterson.

by Charger567 on Apr 6, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Injury prone? Umm Wang’s injury was because of a collision at the plate. That does not make him injury prone. Dude go to the Sox forum since you’re obviously such a fan.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

No, it wasn’t. With you being a Yankee fan and all, I’d expect you to know that. How would it make sense that he would ever have a collision at the plate? He got injured doing some basic base running.

And I do go on a Red Sox blog. Dude, go to Yahoo Answers, since you’re obviously that kind of fan. I’ve read your posts here; you bash everyone who contradicts your state of mind in any way; that being “the Yankees are the most awesome, perfect, infallible team ever and if you don’t agree with that you’re a dumbass.” As much as I don’t fit in here, you don’t either. You have no thoughts other than “Yankees are AWESOME”. I’ve seen enough fans like you to know that you aren’t worth arguing with, as you don’t accept logic. Don’t bother responding to this.

by Charger567 on Apr 6, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

even though he was wrong

regarding the nature of Wang’s injury, it was still a freak occurrence.

you say Sabathia is injury prone bc of his workload. you could say the same for DiceK, who will eventually suffer from his super high walk and pitch totals (he missed a month last year with a sore shoulder). beckett always seems to have some little problem. lester had cancer, which could reappear any time…

face it, ALL pitchers are injury prone. if you subjectively look at the worst case scenario, any rotation will look mediocre.

by Travis G on Apr 7, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Yankees are awesome

This is supposed to be a fan blog site, no? Kinda like going to a meat lover’s blog site and complain that people love meat too much. If you bothered to read ANY of my posts you would know I am not some blind fanatical. The only thing I did was call out the so-called managers of a Yankees site for picking Boston, when the prospectus and Vegas picked the Yankees. But since you obviously didn’t read anything else I wrote I am done wasting my time with you.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 8, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By the way, seeing as you only responded to 1 minor detail of my post, I am going to assume what I said has sunk in well.

by Charger567 on Apr 6, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tough pick

All three teams are pretty stacked and any one of the them can win the AL East division. It all boils down to which one can stay the healthiest.

by BigSlim on Apr 5, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hate fairweather fans

Truly I do. A few of you are the kind of fans that drive me as nuts as the zealots. You proclaim yourself a “fan for 40 years!” but whether it be your media indoctrination or perhaps a Sox troll I don’t fathom it. If the Orioles were to magically have acquired CC, Burnett, Wang, Pettite, Joba, Mo, Jeter, Posada, A-Rod, Texiera, Cano the media would get down on their knees and slober on their feet as the next great dynasty and shoe in for the AL East crown. But since it’s the Yankees, a lot of the brilliant prognosticators don’t even think they will make the wild card. You joking? Will it be a slugfest with Boston? Sure. Always is. Tampa? Meh, good staff but no one is gonna take them lightly this year and I would be shocked if they win 85. The Yankees substantially improved their defense, hitting, and rotation. Hell for the first time since the 90’s is the rotation more impressive to me than the batting order. The most dynamic, well rounded Yankees team in a decade, a barely improved Boston team and you guys still are predicting Boston to win the division? Seriously man, you as a fan suck. Go get some media badges and go hang out with the rest of the Yankees bashers. Boston has one the division ONCE this decade. ONCE.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

one = won. Thats how worked up you guys make me! :)

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

My prediction would then depend on who we get back for Wang, Pettitte, Joba, Mo, Jeter, Posada, Arod, and Cano. I’ll assume the trades would involve multiple teams. It would most certainly have to start with us receiving from the O’s: Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts. Maybe Adam Jones too for Melky.

by BigSlim on Apr 6, 2009 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missing my point

You completely miss my point. Which is the media is obviously biased against the Yankees. If the Orioles put up our exact lineup and rotation the media would crown them the WS champs right now.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joking, I got your point

Everyone, esp. our rabid media, loves to hate the “Evil Empire” and its wealthiest pro sports franchise/highest payroll status. I really do enjoy reading your comments.

by BigSlim on Apr 6, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

I enjoy posting them. I would like to think I am a pretty savvy FAN. I cannot abide how the media is so Boston crazy. I personally think the Yankees could have signed Halladay, Pujols and have Jesus Christ batting cleanup and they would still pick the Sox. The media still calls the Yanks old. Well I guess they gloss over the fact that Red Sox are now the oldest team in the majors with an average age of 31.33. I predicted the Yanks to get the wild card last season behind the Sox because I felt the young pitchers limited innings would be a problem. I made a logical choice based on the facts. Some of the fans I am reading are sitting on the best Yankees team since 1998 and seemingly being swayed by media. Boston is notorious for falling apart the last 4 weeks of the regular season, that is why the Yankees have won the division in 00,01,02,03,04,05, and 06.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why get so riled up about what

the MSM thinks? who really cares? they’re quickly fading into obscurity.

by Travis G on Apr 6, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This a prediction thread.

Not a “who is the biggest Yankee fan?” thread. I’m sure you can find one of those elsewhere on the site.

by stusviews on Apr 6, 2009 7:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

A Yankee fan predicting Boston to take the division. Disgusting.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the bright side

Just imagine being an O’s or Jays fan objectively having to root for a fourth place finish.

by BigSlim on Apr 6, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blue Jays

Well I have gone to a few Blue Jay’s home games. I love the town, Toronto is lovely in the spring. But what a terrible group of fans. I’ve seen more reaction during a golf match. I do feel bad for the Orioles, it’s like being ugly sister in a family of models.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No need for name calling

If you want to go ahead and pick the Yankees every year (who’d you pick from 1988-1992?) be my guest. Just don’t call people names if they have different opinions than you. And no, the media has nothing to do with my pick. I’ll be rooting for the Yankees to win and for me to be wrong just as hard as you will.

by stusviews on Apr 6, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stu

Agreed. I picked the Red Sox, and I really, really hope I am wrong and they fall on their collective faces. But, I keep repeating in the comments that we are all friends here. We all want the same thing, so let’s stay away from the name-calling and personal stuff when we disagree.

by Ed Valentine on Apr 6, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine I will be more civil since your skin is so thin on an anonymous site

I call you a poor fan. The kind of fan who picks against his own team when said team finally has all the pieces in place on paper. Because when it comes to predictions in April all you have is paper. If you picked Boston to win the division last year, well I would have agreed with you because last year was the great experiment with trying to bring the kids up from AAA. That isn’t being a bad fan, that is just being honest with the facts. This year, the facts are thus: The Red Sox did not win the division. They have barely improved their team. The media loves to drool over their “low risk, high reward acquisitions”. If the Yankees picked up Penny and Smoltz the media would be laughing at the Yankees and probably would have ranked them below the Jays. Lowell is coming back? Good for him, I hope he does he is a gamer. Pedroia is not having another MVP season, sorry. Ortiz, no matter WHAT the media says will not be as productive without Manny. Imagine if the Sox didn’t have Manny ALL season last year? Hmmm I think they might have missed the Wild Card. So the lineup is not improved other than a healthy Lowell. Their rotation is the same as last season except for their slip em in and try’em mentality for the 5th starter. Their pen is still excellent, even more so with Saito. But this is not a team that adds 4-5 extra wins, if anything without Manny for the whole season I suspect they win the same or a little less than last season. The Yankees Rotation is deadly. I heard from some idiot on the MLB Network was that all the Yankees did was replace Mussina’s 20 games won with CC’s 18. Ummm no. What Mussina did was pick up the slack for Wang. So since we are using paper for predictions lets see what the Yankees starting 5 did last season:
CC 17-10
Wang 8-2, if he didnt get injured and maintained his win% he would have had a 16-4 in 30 starts
AJ 18-10
Pettite 14-14
Joba 4-3 in 12 starts, at this win% if he starts 30 games he will be 10-5

Yankees lineup loses Abreu and Giambi, but gains Texiera and Gardner for pure speed. Tex over Giambi is a no brainer, and Abreu’s RBIs will be missed but Gardner could very well be a very good run producer with his blazing speed on the bags.

So with all things being equal, I reiterate and Yankees fan picking against his team this year is a poor fan in my view.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

My math is poor today, Joba would have been 10-7

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Apr 6, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AL East	AL Central	AL West
Tampa	Minnesota	Anaheim
Yankees (wild card)	Chicago	Texas
Boston	Cleveland	Oakland
Baltimore	Detroit	Seattle
Toronto	Kansas City
NL East	NL Central	NL West
Philadelphia	Chicago	Los Angeles
Mets (wild card)	St. Louis	Arizona
Atlanta	Cincinnati	San Francisco
Washington	Houston	Colorado
Florida	Milwaukee	San Diego
	Pittsburgh

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