and if he doesn’t walk , he won’t get on base enough to justify any play time . he’s not going to hit for power (and I don’t mean Melkish no power, I mean litterally 0 HR a year no power) he’s not even going to hit for average (he whiffs a lot for a light power guy) , the only chance he has to be a useful player in the major is if he walks 10-15% of the time or more so he actually have a reasonable chance of making use of his speed.

He seem to be confirming what the doubters have doubted all along, that his combination of extremely light power, fairly high Ks and BBs in the minor won’t work in the major, because no one is going to nimble against a light hitter , while he’s not enough of a slap hitter to get on base via lots singles Ichiro style either.

Melky isn’t great, but he does have a few things on his side, for one, he’s pretty solid contact guy, he only whiffs around 13%. he did show at least some patience during 06, and at least some brieft burst of power. he also have age on his side still .

let’s just review the fundemental problem here. Gardner is a player that’s unlikely to hit for any power, we’re not talking about Melky like light power, we’re talking about Juan Pierre like no power. if that’s the case. his value is completely tied up to his speed, which is tied up to him actually getting on base.

there are two ways to get on obviously. hitting and walking. for a guy who won’t hit for power. his average is going to be tied up to how much contact he makes, if he puts enough in play he might beat out enough to have a high average. but the problem is he’s striking out like a slugger . he whiffs 20% of the time (for comparason, Jorge Posada whiffs around 23% for his career), and that is perfectly in line with his minor league track record. most sucessful speedstars with no power (say. Pierre and Butler) whiffs at most 10% , Pierre actually only whiffs a ridiculas 7% of the time.

That’s the problem, almost all the remotely decent light hitters in the past were some of the greatest contact hitters. Gardner actually whiff significantly MORE than average. and there’s no reason to believe he’s going to change that. there have been plenty of cases where such type of hitters walked enough in the minors but didn’t walk at all in the majors . the reasons are obvious.

To be a competent hitter. you need to at least hit for average or hit for power. one or the other. walks are very important but the reason you walk have plenty to do with being able to actually do something with the pitches in the zone. and there is simply very little in the present and past to suggest that Brett will be able ot either hit for any average or any power. at this point he’s probably a .260 average .350 slg guy AT BEST. just think for a sec on what OBP you need to make that sort of average / slg viable. ? somewhere close to .380-.400 at least. is there any reason to believe that he can put up a OBP like that when he can’t make consistent contact nor hit for any power?

I’m not nearly as high on Cabrera as I was before, but by the same standards. he is a guy who’s always made good contact. a 13% K rate for his career is solid. and he’s not completely without power. something that you can at least hope to improve a bit when he reaches his prime years. (say maybe a 13-15 HR guy) so you have a guy who’s significantly above average in contact. and have at least accepatable power for a up the middle position player. in this case then. you can expect that he MIGHT be able to get a decent OBP, at least his contact suggest that he should be a fairly good average hitter. and he will take one out if you just leave it in there. so the only thing between him and a good OBP is his own plate dicipline. something that he has at least shown signs of understanding in the past . none of thatis surely going to happen. but it’s a hell lot more likely than Gardner managing a .260 / .380 / .350 season.