Pettitte will have a bounce-back year

by Travis G on Mar 30, 2009 4:54 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

In case you haven't noticed amid all the turmoil of spring training, Andy Pettitte has arguably been the Yankees best starter.

With another stellar outing, Andy dropped his ERA to a miniscule 0.79 (1.23 counting two minor league starts).

Not that spring stats are a sure-fire predictive sign of the upcoming season, but they're certainly encouraging.

No one can argue 2008 wasn't disappointing for Andy. He posted his highest ERA since 2002 (4.54), and struggled mightily down the stretch, running up an ERA of 6.23 over his last 11 starts.

As we know, Andy had a 'sore' left shoulder the latter half of the year. How much his ineffectiveness was caused by the injury is hard to say, but we can safely assume a fair amount since his stats ballooned beyond any reasonable expectations.

And despite the shoulder problem, Pettitte's peripheral stats were still above average (for him). His K/9 rate was higher than his career average, as was his K/BB and groundball rate. Generally speaking, if you want to find success, follow the strikeouts. He also had lower line drive and fly ball rates.

The reasons his ERA was inflated were due to an unusually high BABIP (.339) and HR/9 rate (.84), both of which were higher than his career averages. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ERA was a far more Pettitte-like 3.71. This all points to bad luck.

So we have a pitcher that suffered from injuries and bad luck last year, and is having an exceptional spring training. The odds those problems strike again aren't too high. We can expect very good things from our fourth starter this year.

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Andy

It seems that the Yankees still are being put behind Boston and Tampa in the media when it comes to the rotation and pen. Frankly in all my years of being a Yankee fan I have NEVER seen a rotation this deep and bullpen this solid. Plus the fact that if anyone screws the pooch your backup starter is Hughes and you have some awesome talent you can plug into the pen from Scranton. That and Mo looks like Mo for yet another year. All we need is Joba to get his velocity up about 4-5 mph and we are golden.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Mar 30, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions

Pettitte

is still solid. Was clearly the right move to bring him back. As for the three top teams, I don’t think most in the know would put the Yankees behind the Sox and Rays. All three have a strong mix in the starting rotation and pen. If health breaks right, I think most would agree that the Yankees have perhaps the best 1-5. The problem is health, as only CC seems a sure bet to eat a hugh number of innings. Joba and Burnett are a concern, while to a lesser degree Pettitte and Wang are as well. If you take the Rays, for example, the only health concern in the rotation is Kazmir. The Sox are closer to the Yankees in terms of health concerns, but perhaps have more “extra” starters signed on as insurance. Who knows, it will be interesting.

by Buzzy on Mar 30, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Not worried

Everyone in the rotation has the ability to win at least 15 games. Mariano is healthy. With the exception of a set long reliever/mop-up guy, the bullpen looks pretty solid. Hopefully there won’t be a repeat of last year’s second half by Pettitte.

by BigSlim on Mar 30, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions

He said he can win 20 games if he’s healthy. I think he might be right. I think he pitched in pain at the end of the year last season. He was pretty good at one point last season and he was great the year before.

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by Rob Abruzzese on Mar 30, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

REALITY CHECK

andy is made of glass . i don;t think he can make an entire season .

by yankeewwatch on Mar 30, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

well, maybe not a full 35 starts

but he’s actually been quite reliable. he’s gone less than 130 ip only once in his 14 year career, and 200+ each of the last four.

by Travis G on Mar 30, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

REALITY CHECK

trust me fans i love the guy but…the only thing that gets better with age is wine ! and since i am whining … he has never been clutch especially against boston ,the ‘big ’ game has evaded him .besides
the rest of the rotation is great so…. lets start this thing!!!
god bless you guys
and go yankee’s!!!!!!!!!

by yankeewwatch on Mar 30, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions

Reality Check

Pettitte is 14–9 with a 3.96 ERA and 139 strikeouts in 35 postseason games (1995–2003, 2005, 2007). Pettitte has pitched 218.1 innings in the postseason. I dunno, that’s pretty respectable when it counts.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Mar 31, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Defense

Nobody mentioned how Pettitte (and everybody, frankly) will benefit by NOT having the worst defensive RF (Bobby Abreu) and 1B (Jason Giambi) fielding ground balls and pop ups this year.

And all bias aside, I think all three teams have very solid rotations, but I have to give a slight edge to the Yankees.

For the Red Sox, let’s not forget that Josh Beckett is a constant injury risk and has been moderately ineffective to completely ineffective in two of the last three years; Daisuke Matsuzaka’s peripheral stats aren’t good (high BB/9 rate, low BABIP rate); Tim Wakefield is going to be 43 this season; Brad Penny and John Smoltz are huge injury risks, and Clay Bucholtz has yet to show much success in the major leagues.

For the Rays, their top four starters are all under 28 and combined to pitch 837 innings last year; the odds are against them repeating that.

by 3460kuri on Mar 31, 2009 9:09 AM EDT reply actions