Adrian Beltré to the Yankees?
by acman319 on Mar 27, 2009 4:10 PM EDT
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PrintI was just watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN and they were talking about the state of the Seattle Mariniers this upcoming season. Buster Olney believes that the Mariners will trade third baseman (one of the best in the MLB according to Olney) because of his expensive $13 million salary. As many of you would probably guess and not be surprised, Olney believes that the team to go after Beltre will be the Yankees because of A-Rod.
What do you guys think about Adrian Beltre and the possibility of the Yankees going after him in a trade?
Who would the Yankees trade for him if they were to go after Beltre?
2008 STATS
BA: .266 HR: 25 RBI: 77 OBP: .327 SLG: .457
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Unless the Yanks
suspect Arod will be out much longer than originally reported, I don’t see why to go after Beltre.
Maybe at the trade deadline you pick up a guy like Beltre as a bat off the bench if all he costs is money and you’re already in the driver’s seat to the playoffs.
But there’s no question; based on what I know right now, no.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I'd like to see..
What we have already in actual season games instead of just spring training. Beltre would be a good bat, but a trade would ask way too much for him. Let’s just stick to what we have now, and then see how things go…
Agreed
I’d have to say that I agree with you. I would like to see how what they have now works out and see where it gets them. And the fact that he would require a high trade value is also an important factor to consider…I would hate to see the Yankees trade away another possible draft pick. You’re right JLeet, let’s stick to what’s there now and see how things go from there.
Pride, Power, Pinstripes...Go Yankees!
Also agree
We should have enough hiting to carry us, given the strong staring pitching this year. Plus Arod should be back sometime in May, so then what would you do with Beltre? $12M is a lot for a bench player.
"No matter where you go, there you are"
FYI
Beltre is owed $12 mil for this season, the last of his contract.
$12 mil is a lot for an above average hitter – but maybe the ‘contract year’ motivates him. it did the last time he had a contract year. he’s also an excellent defender at 3b.
i wouldn’t be averse to it, depending on what they give up and how long Arod will be out.
Beltre’s contract motivation requires steroid use; I’ve had just about enough of that.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
As you said
Beltre is a TREMENDOUS defensive 3b. Just saying…
Beltre is worth way more than 12 million.
He’s not just above-average defensively, he’s the best 3B in baseball and one of the best defenders at any position in the league. Beltre was worth 18 million dollars last season. He’ll easily be worth everything he’s paid and more.
Tools Whore
Longoria was better
last year.
Beltre was below average in 07, great in ‘06, very good in ’05. i wrote ’above average’ hitter and ‘excellent’ fielder. is that not accurate?
It is accurate
he is an above average hitter and a tremendous fielder. I think Tyler’s point was that his fangraphs value is around 18Mil, which takes these things into account. If you go to that page, there is an interesting link to an article on Beltre’s value by RJ Anderson.
it's an interesting article
though the $18 mil you speak of was only last year. his average value over the last 4 years is $14.2 mil/year.
that still seems high taking a few things into account:
1) Arod will be back in 6 weeks, pushing Beltre to the bench.
2) the economy is in the tank. salaries have dropped this winter.
3) if he’ll only be a UIF, Ramiro Pena might play just as good D, and for a fraction of the cost.
I'd rather see Jeter move to third for a spell
but it will never happen. Oh Captain, my Captain.
"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview
by yankee come lately on Mar 28, 2009 6:16 AM EDT reply actions
What's the actual cost?
Is he needed? probably not… But what would the Yankees actually have to give up? Swisher is already unhappy about Nady getting the nod in right, which is the correct call. and maybe get rid of Igewa or Kennedy. They could use the injury insurance (Matsui, Posada, Damon) at DH
Swisher would be perfect
+ trade Igawa?
Swisher for some reason is liked by some Yankee fans, to me he is just the outfield version of Wilson Betemit.
But this is not gonna happen. First off, A-Rod will be back by May. 2nd Beltre is a starter and would cry just as much as Swisher is now. 3rd, the guys is only a 3rd baseman. If he played any other position it would be fine to grab him cuz he has a decent bat.
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 29, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
the outfield version of Wilson Betemit?
disagree completely. Swisher gets on base- and is more versatile in the field than WB.
And, is there a link to Swisher “crying” somewhere?
I am not sold on Swisher as Yankee yet, but your comparison is ridiculous IMO.
And Swisher has to know he’s got a shot of starting in CF in some point if Gardner and Melky don’t hit, which is a very real possibility.
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And
Swisher is a proven big leaguer signed for the next couple of seasons, something that is not true of most of the 2009 starting outfield.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Really?
OK with the OBP, Swisher is very patient. But he hits 250, like Betemit. he has no real position, Like betemit, and he is considered a power hitting switch hitter who in reality doesn’t hit that many HR, like betemit.
ANd how is Swisher more versatile when he is confined to corner OF spots ( you think he is a viable CF option?? He is as bad an idea in CF as Gardner or Meltky in a HR derby) and 1st base (he is left handed in the field BTW). Betemit played all 4 infield spots.
Im sorry for not being PC on the “crying thing too” I know he isn’t crying, but supposedly he is disappointed, there.
Swisher would have been a decent option at 1st base without Tex. As it stands, he is nothing more than an outfield version of Wilson Betemit……who has a higher OBP. aka trade bait. Id rather have Melky or Gardner on the bench cuz at least they could pinch run.
by FreeBradshaw on Mar 29, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
That’s silly. The only thing that really matters is OPS. Batting average is simply not relevant unless it ups OPS. Per team, batting average does not correlate well with the number of runs a team scores. OPS correlates extremely well. In data sets that go back to your grampa’s day, this correlation is air tight. Lesson-simply build you team to have a high OPS and they will score more runs than the teams with lower OPS. It is simple. Now, look at Nady vs Swisher. Who is more likely to have a higher OPS this year. Swisher. Thus Swisher is a better offensive player. All modern analysis suggests that he is also a better fielder than Nady. Thus, you will win more with Swisher than Nady. Why is this hard to accept for some fans? I don’t get it…
Hmm
Because we like Nady better?
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Mar 31, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
that's fine
As a Sox fan I like Ransom better than Arod. Maybe you should send a letter to Girardi to start him the whole season.
Considering he'd take Cody Ransom or Angel Berroa's roster spot
as long as Seattle is willing to make this a straight salary dump, I would do it in a heartbeat. Considering their ridiculous demands for Jarrod Washburn last year, though, I’m not sure they’d be willing to just give Beltre away.
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Gang Green Nation
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ganggreennation.com
Truth from chicago
I’m a Yankee fan living an hour from Chicago and all my sports talk radio centers around chicago sports, during the entire season last year the White sox affiliates constantly talked about Swisher needing to go and having nowhere to play, before there where any trade talks, after the trade all they could say was good riddance. Same in NY, nowhere yo put as for the OPS arguement from buzzy, Swisher has not had enough AB’s to consider his stats accurate at all and has not had any real power in 2 or 3 years
Swisher
Had an OPS+ of 127 in 2007, the year before last. He hit 22 HR in a pitchers park. Last year in under 500 at bats, he hit 24 HR in Chicago. Nady’s career high in HR was last year (25) and only one other time has hit 20 (20 in 07). Swisher is also younger than Nady. I do know that fans and management in Chicago were not at all impressed. However I know Ozzie and spent 5 years in Chi-town, and I don’t think that means much…
Nady
is our righthanded version of Paul O’neil. THe guy has been underrated his entire career.
You can compare the stats all you want. But why have the teams that gave up on Swisher say good riddance while most of the teams that let Nady walk regret it?
I’ll take Nady any day over Swisher’s OBP. Nady will hi .330 while Swisher hist .230, and your worried about OBP?
Yea Nady’s a bit of a free swinger, but going by his average, he’s a high contact guy with that free swinging. He brings that to a Yank team that sometimes is too patient for its own good.
Nady is a good RF too. Swisher may have him beat in the OF, but its really not by much. We’ll of course know more over the season how good Nady is, but I wouldn’t say he is a liability, Id actualyl say he’s still light years better than Abreu.
It is your kind of analysis
that leads to GMs like Omar Minaya. Old school reliance on things like batting average is just stupid, plain and simple. The facts are indisputably true, they cannot be denied: OPS correlates with runs (what your offense is) BA does not correlate well. If you want to believe the world is flat because you look at the window and it looks flat to you, be my guest.
And, as a footnote-my grandmother is better in RF than Bobby Abreu.
BTW
the Paul O’Neill analogy is a poor one: O’Neill was a very good player, Nady is not. O’Neill was a high onbase guy in his prime, and posted OPS+ of 136, 176,137,123,137,130 in his first 6 years with the Yankees. These numbers far surpass Nady’s (or Swishers). He was a “winner” because he was an excellent player, and his team was filled with excellent players.
OK Mr. Beane
Runs and RBI also correlate to offense. And Minaya’s only thinking is how to get the Puerto Rican team in Flushing. While I don’t think the OPS or OBP are crock of crap or anything, I think you NEED to add in batting average in there too no?
Cuz if a guy somehow manages a 1.000 OPS and .450 OBP, that would be great by yours and Beane;s logic. But if the guy line also looks like .230, 20, 47 RBI, who the hell cares?
And if you want to take your Beane logic with Nady, he actually was .363 OBP and had a respectable .867, not exaclty Ricky Henderson but he is slated as our 6 or 7 hitter, Im fine with that if he hits 25HR and knocks in close to 100.
Swisher would have been fine as our first baseman. He may have had a OBP of .380 and a slightly higher OPS….
Thing is Nady would have a lower OPS, but he would bat close to .100 points higher. he will have more HR, more RBI and score more Runs. Why you would rather have a guy with a few more points in the OPS and minus 100pts in the BA category I don’t know. Walks are nice, but hits are better.
Ugh
You really don’t understand anything, so this is likely a waste, but here goes:
a)Runs don’t “correlate” with offense, runs ARE offense. The team that scores more runs has a better offense. Thus, take runs out of your consideration. You have to use measures that then correlate with runs. RBIs can’t be used, since that is basically the same thing (eg team RBIs and team RUNs, which are nearly identical). Get it?
b)OK, so what can we look at? Well, BA, slugging, OBP, OPS, BB and a host of more complicated metrics. Note also that most of these metrics do not at all depend on factors that are linked to things a hitter cannot control (like, well, rbis, that depend on how good the other players on the team are in their ability to get on base).
c)of these OPS for a team correlates best with total runs, with a remarkably tight correlation coefficient of .95-.96. BA and HR seperately much less. Thus-a much better predictor of offensive potency is OPS than either HR or BA.
d)Your example makes no sense. How can a guy with only 20 HR and a .230 average have enough other extra base hits to slug 550 if he played a full season? I don’t think you understand how OPS works. But, lets say that somehow it could be done (eg the guy only hits triples and HRs for his 230 average, and walks a TON so that he still could hit 20 HR in his limited official at bats) then yes, he would be more valuable.
e)You need to reread Nady’s career stats-last year was an outlier due entirely to his stats in Pittsburgh. How did he do in NY, or in previous years?
f)Your statement in the last paragraph makes no sense for all of the reasons outlined above.
You should learn (at least) what you are arguing about in the first place before you make a fool of yourself. You don’t even know what OPS is.
Or
to make it simple for you-
if two teams were made up entirely of hitters, 1-9 that on team A were your “Swisher” guy (230/20/1000 OPS) while team B had, 1-9 your “Nady” guy (867OPS) then the facts say team A will have a better offense (they will be more likely to score more runs for the year). Even though this is a highly artificial example, the facts are the facts. The stats are their for you to look at. Any denial of this is simply irrational.
OPS = OBP + Slugging
Wow….. Maybe I don’t try to sound like Billy Beane or Peter Gammons when I think about baseball stats. But you should realize that Im not even looking at stats when Im say this. Stats are used to predict, and as most analysts have proven over the years, they don’t know how to predict a god damn thing.
I know what OPS is and what it means for a team. I also remember the golden days where you batting average mattered. It still does. So you can take your Oakland A’s and their .230 batting averages any day. They still don’t win so how the hell do you think it really matters?
All the stats matter. If you look at BA and not at your OPS, then you don’t know what those hits are, I know. But if you look at the OPS, you may just have an Adam Dunn on your hands cuz his OBP is so high cuz of his walks.
You can predict all you want, I still don’t want a guy who has all the OPS in the world but has never managed to crack .250
by FreeBradshaw on Apr 2, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
OK Genius
Answer the following question:
You have two teams. On team A each player has a 230 average, 20 HR and a 1000OPS. On team B each player has a 290 BA, 25 HR and an 870 OPS. Which team scores more runs? Can you answer this?
Just to chime in...
When you get right down to it, the ONLY thing in baseball that truly matters are making outs, or not making outs. Every team gets 27 outs per game; the team that wins is the one that does the most in between those outs.
On Base Percentage, and not batting average, accurately measures what percentage of the time a player makes an out. It is the most important hitting statistic in baseball, more important than slugging percentage, batting average, RBIs, or stolen bases.
Nady’s career OBP is .335, which conversely means he makes an out 66.5% of the time. Nick Swisher’s career OBP is .354, meaning he makes an out 64.6% of the time. So, here’s the thing; if Nady gets 650 plate appearances this season, he will make 432 outs. Given the same number of plate appearances, Swisher will only make 420 outs.
12 outs is almost half of a game. It doesn’t seem like much over the course of a 162 game season, but outs are outs. Imagine if the Yankees could come to bat 10 times in a game while the other team only had 9 turns. Imagine if they had this opportunity 4 times during the year. In a division that projects to be as tight as the AL East in 2009, an extra 12 outs could be the difference between a postseason berth and staying home in October.
This is how powerful a high on-base percentage is, and it truly doesn’t matter if you get there by hitting .340 and walking 8 times all year, or hitting .230 and walking 100 times.
It’s misleading to compare these two players because Nady is coming off a good year that is not in line with his career norms, and Swisher is coming off of a bad year that doesn’t match up either. If both players revert to their 2007 forms, with Nady posting a .330 OBP and Swisher posted a .375 OBP, the difference between them becomes even more apparant.
It depends Mr.Gammons
On how many runs they actually scored.
What Im trying to say, is you can predict all the hell you want. But what are you gonna do with your completely simulated 2009 season when all of a sudden a guy like Nady posts a season like he did last year.
Or even what if Swisher got in the lineup and batting .350 with an OPS of .730 (makes you sick dosen’t it…OPS .730 OMFG!!!! this guy sucks).
Your predictions don’t take into acount say, the fact that Swisher liked on the West coast so that’s why he was any good with the A’s, or how Nady has seemed to finally put all his talent together last year.
All your stats make sense, but they are just stats. They are best analyzed during and after the season, not before. Cuz when guys sway off of their career “norms” and either break out or suck one year, you look like an idiot.
Also what happens when you are on base cuz of your Walks, but cuz you don’t get any hits you don’t knock in any runs….I know, now your OPS comes in, but what if that OPS is swayed by your walks and your slugging really has nothing to do with why the OPS is so high? If OBP is 420, but slugging is also .420, that makes a decent .840 OPS? Or does Gammons expect the great ones to crack .900?
You have to take into account ALL of these stats, not just one.
And when your quoting what I wrote, don’t leave off the sarcasm at then end of the sentence, I know what the F I wrote and that I was thinking of a Golden Era of stats had absolutely nothing to do with what I wrote.
Why
do you keep invoking Gammons? He is not a Sabr guy, he is just a reporter. Makes no sense like every thing else that you say. Of course this is about prediction. It is possible that Melky could hit 50 HR this year too, but you wouldn’t bet on it, would you? You can only build your team to play the odds, and the odds say that Nady will not repeat last year (look at what he did in NY last year). Even if he did, when defense is factored in, it is not clear he would be worth more to the Yankees. It looks like you are a fan of the Lions, and you would want to run the Yankees that the Lions. Like, say, drafting a bunch of WR with your first pick, because “maybe they will all be like Jerry Rice…”
LOL
Definitely, not even close to being a Lions fan. I just added that to my list so I can see what they are thinking of the #1…. And maybe if the Giants could have pried Megatron from them (not happening).
I say Gammons cuz he always talks about OPS to make it seem like he knows what he’s talking about. He may, and you may too. I just will never be swayed as to Swisher being a better ballplayer than Nady.
by FreeBradshaw on Apr 3, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, why all the pent up hostility?
Are you a scout that got fired from the A’s or something like that?
“But what are you gonna do with your completely simulated 2009 season when all of a sudden a guy like Nady posts a season like he did last year”
What am I going to do? I’m going to say that up until this year, Nady has been the definition of an average player (OPS+ of 102, 107, and 107 the past 3 years). When a player makes a huge jump, as Nady did in ‘08, at the age of 29, it’s usually a fluke. There are some exceptions, of course, but I’m going to have to see him post a similar season again in 2009 to become a believer.
And before you go anti-statistics on me, OPS+ is just measuring his OPS relative to the league average. So, Nady was 2% than the league in ’05, 7% better in ’06, and 7% better in ’07.
Let me ask YOU this: what are you going to do if Nady reverts to his unspectacular 2007 numbers (or the unspectacular numbers he posted after joining the Yankees last year). YOU’RE going to look like an idiot then.
Both Nady and Swisher are known commodities. They’ve both come to the plate 2,500 times in the major leagues. Most importantly, both of them had a 2008 stat line that doesn’t fit in with the rest of their career up to this point. If I could predict the future, I’d be playing the lottery. I can’t tell you how they will perform in 2009, but they both have a lot of plate appearances under their respective belts, and we can make some reasonable assumptions based on them.
So yes, you could say “Swisher liked it on the West coast so that’s why he was good with the A’s, or that Nady seemed to finally put all his talent together last year”. However, I have to believe these guys know that tens of millions of dollars are at stake on the free agent market, so they’ve both been doing their best to use all of their talent, regardless of whether or not they like the geographic region in which they play.
Hits are better than walks, but walks are better than making an out. So I would rather have a player who hits .240 and posts a .350 OBP than one who hits .270 and posts a .330 OBP.
No hostility at all
But I aint gonna look like an idiot, cuz I have no predictions for this season. I say Nady will have a better season and will fit in better with the Yanks than Swisher. I just say the Yanks will be good, hopefully everyone stays healthy, and I’ll also add that we should trade Swisher for a utility guy who can play more than 1st and corner outfield.
I like stats, I understand and always did the OPS OBP SLUGGing stuff (maybe not this PECOTA crap, but whatever) and how it correlates to wins. But isn’t that the big word in there? Correlate? As in there’s just something involved. It says that it may be the reason, but since it correlates its really not cause and effect now is it?
I say stats are great when you analyze a season. When you get to predicting stuff, I think they are blown out of proportion.
by FreeBradshaw on Apr 3, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
There used to be an old commercial for the Yellow Pages where the narrator said “if somebody told you there was a 90% chance that lightning would strike this spot, would you move?”
That’s exactly the principle we’re using when we look at a player’s past performance and think about what kind of season they’ll have in 2009. We can’t say for certain that anybody will do anything; we can, however, look at their past performance and use that to create reasonable expectations.
I like stats, I understand…..how it correlates to wins. But isn’t that the big word in there? Correlate? As in there’s just something involved. It says that it may be the reason, but since it correlates its really not cause and effect now is it?
What else besides statistics is involved? Heart? Guts? Grittiness? Intangibles? “Knowing how to win”? That’s all a bunch of non-objective nonsense.
why is PECOTA crap?
bc you dont understand it?
i agree that the projection systems have a long ways to go, and they’ll never be perfect. but to criticize them for trying to project the future is wrong. it’s a work in progress that further advances our understanding of the game.
you want to trade Swisher, an everyday player his entire career (up to now), for a UIF? Swisher’s younger, paid less, oh, and he’s a better baseball player.
To quote you (my addition in bold)….
“Walks are nice, but hits are better, BUT NOT MAKING AN OUT IN THE FIRST PLACE IS BEST”.
This is why on base percentage is more important than batting average. This is why Swisher, not Nady, is the better player
Completely correct.
Somehow, however, we still have people who say things like: “I also remember the golden days where you batting average mattered.” It is somehow like there a bastardization of the game going on that is not liked, but this is not about what one likes or dislikes, it is about winning, and winning is about scoring runs which you do by not making outs.
Look at last year’s results in the AL. The bottom five teams in runs scored had precisely the 5 lowest OPS (btw Free-seems the As were the bottom in both, so it is not like Beane did too good a job constructing an OPS based team). That is 1-5 worst had the matching 1-5 worst OPS. On the other hand, Tampa’s team batting average was 260 amd Seattle’s was 265, but Tampa scored 103 more runs. The OPS difference? Tampa-762, Seattle 707.
first off
where do you get .330 from for Nady? that was in 89 games with Pitt. His BA dropped to .268 with us in 59 games.
second, OBP correlates a lot more with runs than BA does, and even more than SLG.
But when you bat .219 that's a lot worse.
You suck. I could care less if magically you manage OPS of .900 and were on base .500. You bat .219 your a bench player.
you can still be a very productive hitter despite
a low BA.
here’s a list of all the players in history who batted under .230 yet were above-average hitters (in terms of OPS+).
You're wrong
Whatever your reasoning is, you’re wrong.
Batting average matters when you’re trying to balance your lineup, ie if you have five .240/.380/.540 hitters batting one after another, you’re going to have some wild swings and a feast or famine offense.
But, if you’re comparing two players directly to each other, and one has substantially better on base skills, THAT player is the better of the two.
To go back for a second
Just out of curiousity, given the “steroid era” home run explosion a few years ago, for the 2009 season what would be considered a power hitter, nubers wise, 30, 35, 40?
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