Thinking About 15-8

by jscape2000 on Mar 27, 2009 11:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 5 comments

We're still a couple weeks away from Opening Day, April 6, 2009. So I've been thinking about what an acceptable April would look like.

I believe the secret to a successful pennant race is to play .500 against the good teams, and pound the lousy teams.

Last season the Yanks went 89-73, a .549 winning percentage. So let's make .540 our cutoff point; that puts the White Sox and the Twins in our "contender" category along with the Big Three in the East, and the Angels (for now, let's leave interleague out of the equation).

Against our 5 contending opponents, the Yanks went 37-33, .529.

Against everybody else in the AL, we went 42-32, .568.

(Several things jump out at me as I peruse the date: first, I'm reminded how good the 2008 Yankees were; second, the Angels were the only team we had a multi-game deficit against; third, the 2008 what ifs begin with our 9-9 record against the Blue Jays.)

But back to the task at hand, check out our dance card:

Opponent	Games Against	2009 W-L %
Orioles	3	.422
Royals	3	.463
Rays	3	.599
Indians	4	.500
Athletics	3	.466
Red Sox	3	.586
Tigers	3	.457
Angels	1	.617

That's 7 games against teams from last season's playoffs, and 16 games against teams who finished 2008 at or below .500.

I'm an optimist at heart, so I'll peg the Yanks for 4-3 against the contenders. That means take 2 of 3 in Fenway and 1 of 3 in the Trop, or vice versa, and beating the Angels in the Bronx to close out April.

Against the sub .500 teams, with nearly half of those games at home, I want to win 6 out of 10. That's 11-5.

15-8. That's not an optimistic perspective; that's "good nuff" considering the quality of our opposition.

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Whuppin

up on the bad teams is essential. Your theory goes all the way back to John McGraw of the old time NY Giants. I also seem to recall that the Yankees of the Dynasty Era of 48-64 often did the same thing. Casey would even sit Whitey Ford vs. the lower division to keep him fresh for the upper division teams.

"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel

by tnredneckyankeesfan on Mar 27, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And to this day

Whitey complains about how much he didn’t get the ball.

Casey seemed brilliant to me then. I was 12 for the 1961 season. Now some of the things he did make me scratch my head. He just played some hunches. Ehh.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Mar 27, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

If you extend these percetages for the season, what jind of a won loss do you come up with. It seems to me we should be hoping for more than 11-5 against the weaklings.

Great, now I have to get out a schedule and my laptop! Thanks, this is going to interfere with SU against Oklahoma!

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Mar 27, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Roughly

18 games against the Red Sox, 18 against the Rays, 6 against the Angels, 6 against the ChiSox, 6 against the Twins.
That’s 54 games at .500- 27-27.
That leaves 108 games; .600 ball would be 65 wins, 43 losses.
That’d be 92-70.

Putting the Yankees at 92 wins would have put the Yanks in the playoffs 6 of the last 10 years (either as division champ or wild card).

This underscores how hard it is to get 2 great teams from one division into the playoffs if there is a 3rd good team. It’d be easy for a team from a very weak division to sneak in (I’m looking at you, Oakland).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Mar 27, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs