Leadoff debate revisited

by Travis G on Mar 26, 2009 10:45 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 4 comments

If you haven't heard, Joe Girardi is thinking of batting Derek Jeter leadoff and Johnny Damon second, despite the fact that it's been the reverse for three years now.

Girardi should be applauded. There's too often an illogical feeling that things need to be done the way they always have because... well, just because. We should be happy that he's thinking 'outside the box'. Now if only he could regarding rightfield.

Pete Abraham makes a valid point that Jeter may hit leadoff to break up the two lefties if Brett Gardner hits ninth.

What are the top qualities for a leadoff hitter? On-base skills, speed, and pitch-taking ability, yes?

Damon's career OBP is .354. Jeter's is .387.

Damon has 362 career steals at a 79% success rate. Jeter has 275 at a 78% rate.

Damon's career pitches-per-plate appearance is 3.86. Jeter's is 3.75.

They're pretty close. The difference in OBP gives a slight edge to Jeter in my mind. Add in the fact that the likely #9 hitter is a lefty, and it makes sense to split them up with the righty, Jeter.

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I say shake it up. Why not try it and see what happens. I don’t think it will hurt anything to see if it brings good results. It may be the turnaround spark needed to fuel the rest of the lineup all the way down to Gardner who will probably bat in the nine spot.

yankspride04

by YANKSPRIDE04 on Mar 27, 2009 7:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

jeter

ground into 24 double plays last season, damon 5, plus the stagger effect is a positive.

by ball in play on Mar 27, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

in defense of Jeter

Damon i’m sure had far fewer ABs with runners on first simply bc he was the #1 hitter. he had at least one AB/game that guaranteed no one on 1st – that’s about 150 right there. the rest of the time, the generally poor #9 batter hit before him (meaning he wouldn’t reach base much).

by Travis G on Mar 27, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

opportunities

to dp ratio, is a valid variable. BP shows GIDP%, which changes the 5 to 1 ratio (above) to near 3 to 1 over the last three years.
seperating jeters GIDP rate from the 3,4,&5 batters, with a legit leadoff player, prevents #3 leading off as much and creates better rbi opportunities w/2 out if damon reaches base.

by ball in play on Mar 27, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs