He’ll pitch in the US at some point. His team isn’t going to just ignore the huge posting fee they can get for him.

I’m wary of Japanese pitchers. Baseball Prospectus ran a really good article awhile ago about some of the difference between baseball in Japan and the U.S, and one of the major differences the author noted was the penchant for sacrifice bunting in Japan. Apparently, whenever the leadoff batter reaches first to start an inning, the next batter will square to bunt him over to second virtually 100% of the time.

Study after study has shown that sacrifice bunting, especially under these circumstances, actually REDUCES the team’s likelihood of scoring. The value gained by moving the runner up one base does not offset the loss of an out, and this practice winds up helping the opposing pitcher more than anybody else.

Dice-K was supposedly the jewel of Japanese pitching, and frankly, he hasn’t been that good in the U.S. He had a low ERA last year, but was mostly the beneficiary of exceptionally good luck; nobody who walks nearly 5 batters per 9 innings is going to consistently post a sub-3.00 ERA. Dice-K has been an above average pitcher in the US, but certainly hasn’t lived up to the hype, and going into the midpoint of his contract, I’d have to say that he’s probably been a disappointment so far.

I think interest for Darvish is going to be somewhat muted because of that. Perhaps it drives the posting price down (not likely). I just can’t imagine a team putting up $65 million just for the rights to negotiate with a foreign ballplayer.

In the WBC, but since pitchers were limited, how long do you think his stuff will last in the MLB? He has a nasty splitter, and averages 95-96 mph fastballs, but so can alot of pitchers. If he does decide to go into the MLB, He’ll do good the first couple of years, but will fall into another ‘regular’ pitcher. Do i think the yanks should try to sign him? Hell yeah, for a 2 year contract, but not for the price just to negotiate.. Dice’K is overrated anyway..and look what happened to Hideo Nomo.. remember him?

Was derailed by injury, but it’s tough to argue how 123 win and nearly 2000 IP between age 26 to 36 is bad. his overall ERA+ wasn’t that good but he did have 4 seperate very good season during this span. just because he had a bad ending, didn’t mean he wasn’t very successful before that. his career would rank as one of the top non-HOFer during that span.

As for Dice-K, the sample size isn’t big enough to truely make out how his career would look yet.

Darvish’s Pitch FX looks awsome during the WBC, I’d rank him ahead of just about everyone in the similar age span not named Tim Lincecum.

(Yu Darvish Pitch fx in the finals)
Pitch Type Speed(avg) Speed(max) H-Break V-Break Number
                                                                                
FA (Fastball) 94.94 99.2 -6.07 12.26 22
SL (Slider) 83.02 85.8 5.79 2.51 18
CU (Curveball) 81.00 81 5.00 -3.71 1