Projecting the Pen

by SenorSwanky on Mar 12, 2009 1:28 AM EDT Comment 8 comments

Based on spring numbers so far (reported in the following table), as well as past performance and what we know about what Girardi and Cashman want in the bullpen, I think we should see the following seven men break camp with the Yanks:

Player	G	IP	H	HR	BB	HBP	ER	ERA	WHIP	SO	K/9	K:BB
Mariano Rivera	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Damaso Marte	2	2.0	3	2	0	0	2	9.00	1.50	2	9.00	n/a
Brian Bruney	4	4.0	2	2	1	0	3	6.75	0.75	5	11.25	5.00
Phil Coke	3	5.0	6	1	0	0	1	1.89	1.20	4	7.20	n/a
Jose Veras	4	4.0	1	0	3	1	1	2.25	1.25	8	18.00	2.00
David Robertson	4	4.0	2	0	1	0	1	2.25	0.75	6	13.50	6.00
Kei Igawa	3	5.0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.40	4	7.20	n/a

Rivera, Marte, and Bruney are locks, and Coke is a near-lock to serve as what Girardi calls a "medium-long" man. Veras performed ably last year and has been a strikeout machine this spring, so he's pretty likely to go north next month.

The other two are somewhat surprising. Conventional wisdom has Al Aceves, Dan Giese, and Brett Tomko competing for the long man spot, but Igawa has performed much better than any of them so far this spring, and dominated AAA lineups last season. Plus, if he continues to pitch well against major-league lineups during the regular season, it would up his currently almost nonexistent trade value. And he would be a third lefty in the pen on top of the two in the rotation. Tomko would not likely accept an assignment to Scranton's rotation, so the team may look at his years of experience as a starter and his decent spring performance, second in effectiveness to Igawa's among the four candidates for long man, and give him a shot so they don't lose him. But I would think they would place greater importance on getting some use out of Igawa's contract. And they may want to give at least Aceves, who is more of a prospect than Igawa, who was signed to pitch in the majors, more time in AAA to get regular innings.

CW also has Edwar Ramirez taking what I have as Robertson's spot based on his solid performances in 2007 and 2008, but he's rehabbing from shoulder bursitis and has yet to pitch this spring. Mark Melancon is the other contender for that spot, but I would give him more time in AAA to make sure his limited-sample spring and minor-league dominance is not a fluke, and then move him up if Robertson replicates his 5.34 ERA from 30.1 innings in the majors last season, or if any of the other relievers struggles, or if we find ourselves not needing a full long man. I would rule out Jon Albaladejo and Steven Jackson, and while Anthony Claggett has looked great so far, he has only 6 IP at the AAA level over two seasons to Robertson's 35 and Melancon's 20 last season, and Jackson's 117.1 and Albaladejo's 31 over two seasons.

Here's a table with the spring stats for the other contenders for Robertson's and Igawa's spots:

Player	G	IP	H	HR	BB	HBP	ER	ERA	WHIP	SO	K/9	K:BB
Edwar Ramirez	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Mark Melancon	5	5.0	3	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.00	4	7.20	2.00
Anthony Claggett	4	6.0	3	1	1	0	1	1.50	0.67	4	6.00	4.00
Jonathan Albaladejo	3	3.2	5	0	1	0	1	2.45	1.64	3	7.36	3.00
Steven Jackson	5	4.2	5	0	1	1	2	3.86	1.50	4	7.71	2.00
Alfredo Aceves	3	7.0	6	3	3	1	5	6.43	1.43	3	3.86	0.75
Dan Giese	4	8.1	9	2	2	0	6	6.48	1.32	6	6.48	3.00
Brett Tomko	3	7.0	5	1	1	0	2	2.57	0.86	5	6.43	5.00

What do you all think?

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I would think

there is no way in hell Igawa see the 25 man roster. While he has pitched well this spring, a more important thing to look at is when during the game is he getting his innings? Mid-to late innings in early spring is basically AAA. We know he can pitch to minor leaguers…

I would throw Giese back out there before Igawa. I do agree with you (or was it CW), that Aceves is better suited getting regualr innings in AAA. Edwar’s a tough call at this point, it’s gonna come down to health for him.

Side note: the couple of times I ’ve seen Marte throw in WBC play, he looked pretty sharp. His ball really seems to have more life in it than it did down the stretch last year.

by NumberSeven on Mar 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right, but...

Aceves, Tomko, and Giese have faced those same batters, largely (though the other three each got a start early in the spring games).

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Mar 12, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I don’t think there’s any chance Igawa gets back on the 40-man roster this season. Someone would have to get DFA’d to make room for him.

I wouldn’t want to be the guy who got DFA’d in favor of Igawa. Men have taken their own lives for less humiliating experiences.

by anaconda on Mar 12, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

I’d forgotten he’s no longer on the 40-man. I would then favor Tomko over Giese or Aceves, based on spring innings so far and major-league experience.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Mar 13, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Claggett

I watched him, and I think he’s the real deal. I don’t like Igawa, period, and would rather give a spot to a trained seal than to him. Tomko probably isn’t the answer in a long role, but neither is Igawa. I like Aceves, even though his numbers appear alittle out of whack. He’s probably going to be fine. Plus I like his makeup far better than the fragile Igawa.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Mar 13, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no igawa

anything but him he is the worst. much rather have aceves or ramirez.

by LIBi on Mar 13, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Looking like it'll be Tomko

Great game against the Sox Friday night. He doesn’t take up a roster spot at Scranton that’s better used on a prospect, and if he fails as a long man, we can easily put him on waivers and call up Aceves or Giese.

Mark Melancon probably put himself out of contention for the pen with his outing against Houston today. Robertson continues to impress, and Ramirez pitched a good inning today as well.

Also looks like Berroa’s locked down the utility infielder job while Ransom starts at 3B in A-Rod’s absence. He’s not been so hot defensively, at least at SS, but his bat has been pretty good. Ramiro Pena’s looked pretty good on both ends of the ball and could play a role with us in the future, but he needs a little more seasoning.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Mar 15, 2009 4:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs