Jeter to CF?
Interesting article posted on The Worldwide Leader article by Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus. I know, I know- new article, old story. But it's certainly a story that is going to gain momentum in the next year or or so, as Jeet gets ready for a new deal.
In his prime, Jeter's tremendous position-relative value helped power the last Yankees dynasty. Even as recently as 2006, when Jeter was able to provide a Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) mark of 6.9, the debate over Jeter's defense was puerile, if not downright academic. Ask any GM if he can have a seven-win player at shortstop, and he'll say yes. Players this good don't grow on trees.
However, Jeter's WARP dropped to 3.5 in 2007 and 2.5 last season. With his overall offensive contributions coming down from MVP-worthy to merely very good, especially in the power department, we start rekindling the question of whether or not Jeter really belongs at short.
She also more or less states, that more important than Jeter's declining value at SS, is the Yankees' current blaring need in CF, and offers a replacement for Jeter at SS:
Crying over last year's spilled Melky won't help you catch up to the Rays and Red Sox, but signing Orlando Cabrera would provide the team with a useful-enough hitter and a slick-fielding asset at short could make a small but important difference to a bad defensive ballclub.
(Gotta love that line about spilled Melky... )
If something like was to happen, it would need to happen soon. The guy's not getting any younger- if it's hard to convert someone to CF at 35, how about 36? 37? I'm not sure how likely this is, but Kahrl points out that other iconic-figures such as Ripken and Yount made the switch for the good of their teams.
So I ask you all two things -What does Jeter do? And what's best for the Yankees?
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28 comments
Comments
Very interesting!
If Jeter is truly a team player, and I know he is….I’m sure he would make whatever switch was necessary for the good of the team. I guess they’ll have to cross this bridge sooner or later.
L!
by Ragnar808 on Feb 4, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jeter played hurt last year...
1 April – 18 May .314/.349/.778 not that bad really
then he got hit on the hand
20 May – End June .243/.330/.672 not so good…
After that?
July .280/.351/.771 better but still not good enough
August .345/.382/.789 nice
September .342/438/.912 wow…
I know players have hot and cold streaks but here he was clearly playing hurt and he was suffering from it for close to two months. If a healthy Jeter (say excluding 20 May throuh 20 July) produced
.322/.378/.809
his offense is certainly elite amongst short stops and we’ll have to live with his defense.
This is not to say that he won’t slow down, but it is saying that it is far from clear that last year was a sign of an imminent decline as a hitter
by TLVP on Feb 5, 2009 3:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Obviously not a straight answer to the question
but just setting teh record straight on how bad he was at hitting.
However in the question on should Jeter be in CF or a SS is pretty straight forward and can be split in two:
1) Would the replacement SS be a better hitter than the Cabrera/Gardner? Possible but far from certain. A better hitting SS would almost certainly cost a lot more than C/G
2) Would the improvement in SS defense be bigger than the drop in CF defense if you moved DJ there. No one has really made a good case for why DJ would not be as big a liability in CF.
Logic tells you that the smartest move might be to move DJ to 3B and A-Rod to the outfield when a good SS becomes available. DJ would be fine with that I’m sure but maybe its asking too much from A-Rod to have him move for DJ once again…
by TLVP on Feb 5, 2009 6:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
BP’s argument is predicated on the Yankees signing Orlando Cabrera to play short.
Orlando Cabrera has posted OPS+ of 91, 95, and 84 over the past three years, while Melky Cabrera has posted OPS+ of 95, 89, and 68 those same years. Orlando is a known quantity – he isn’t spectacular with the bat, but he isn’t horrible either. Melky, ion the other hand, has been somewhat of a disappointment since reaching the majors for good in ‘06. He has yet to develop power, and his walk rate has declined each year. Granted, he’s still 23, but those numbers should trend upward, not downward. I’m not even going to talk about Brett Gardner, because hitters with no power who don’t reach the big leagues until they’re almost 25 really have no business being in the mix for a contending team’s starting CF job.
Defensively, Cabrera would be a huge improvement over Jeter at short. Baseball Prospectus has Cabrera at 18 Fielding Runs Above Average over the past 3 seasons, whereas Jeter is at -11.
Jeter playing CF is the only real variable. According to Baseball Prospectus, CF is only the 4th most demanding defensive position, and since Jeter’s game is built on athleticism, it’s not a completely unreasonable to see him playing average defense out there. And, Jeter’s bat is still plus for a CF.
This makes too much sense…
by 3460kuri on Feb 5, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
4th most demanding defensive position?
What are the top three?
by YankInBeantown on Feb 6, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on the criteria Baseball Prospectus uses to measure Fielding Runs above replacement, Catcher is #1, SS is #2, 2B is #3.
CF is #4 just a tick ahead of 3B at #5.
by 3460kuri on Feb 6, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen
Arod field a pop-up? The idea of him in OF is scary.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Feb 5, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It HAS to come from Jeter
something I posted last night on the subject:
The only way this happens is that it has to at least appear that Jeter is the catalyst for this move, not Cashman or (heaven forbid) Hank/Hal. And even then, at this late date, could you find a buyer for Melky? Or do you just grab Orlando Cabrera and move Jeter to CF and later worry about Melky? What if Jeter fails miserably in CF? Do you jerk his chain under the brightest of lights, risking embarrassing your cornerstone? This has to come from Jeter, or it has to at least be told that way, if it’s ever going to happen.
No, this can’t happen this year. And it might not happen next year. We might come back after the 2010 season and settle in for another Varitek-like showdown, pitting the legendary Captain of a legendary team against its ownership and fans. And we saw with Varitek that the fans sided with management this season; will the Yanks fans still side with Jeter if his decline lasts two more years and he wants in-the-prime money to remain at SS?
Jeter’s seemingly had a fairly solid grasp of his position in the game, with the organization. Totally self-aware of everything about him and the game. Honestly, the one thing that no one seems to want to even consider is that after 2010, Jeter realizes that he’s no longer playing to the level in which he’s accustomed and simply decides to walk away, retire. Really, I see this as entirely more likely than him hanging on just to play. I just can’t see that happening. Jeter won’t let himself become baseball’s version of Brett Favre. I think he retires before he allows others to discuss him as an impediment to the team’s on-field performance.
I can see him calling a press conference right around Thanksgiving 2010 to tell the world he’s hanging them up for good, that his wife (some uber super-model/actress/starlet) is expecting their first child and he’s ready to move onto the next phase of his life rather than change positions or go and fight for a job. He’d take a few questions, say all the right things, smile that trademark smile with a wink, be ultra-polite with everyone, say thank you and be gone.
And that will be that. The era will end.
by jnr98 on Feb 5, 2009 9:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jeter is a good guy but...
he wants 3000 hits and if he’s not there by the end of 2010 he’ll hang around
Another note is that sometime towards the end of 2009 he is likely to become the player with most hits in games started as a shortstop
Luis Aparicio has 2677
Omar Vizquel has 2657
Derek Jeter has 2535
If DJ has 143 hits he passes Aparicio, if he has 123 hits more than Omar (likely I think) he’ll pass Omar…
Once DJ’s done that he would probably be prepared to switch position
IF he has
by TLVP on Feb 5, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now playing Centerfield ... Numbah 2 ... Jetah
Won’t happen and here’s why.
Jeter is and always will be the Yankee shortstop. Like a professor, he has tenure there. He will go out on his terms and his terms alone. Although the consumate team player, Jeter, like DiMaggio, is extremely mindful of his legacy and isn’t about to jeopardize it with a move to another glamour position.
No, I think Derek will take his 3,000+ hits, his .310 BA and ride off into Yankee lore—as a Yankee shortstop.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on Feb 5, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Won't get to 3000 hits as a SS
by the end of 2010… He’s at 2535 – even with two excellent seasons he’ll be at 2925…
He needs a new contract to get to 3000 and the Yankees might give him one but with an understanding that he’ll be flexible on salary and on playing position.
Hanley Ramirez will start earning big money from 2011 so he will be traded then at the latest. The Yankees would not pass on him to enable Jeter to get 3000 hits as a SS.
Jeter will not go anywhere else – he’ll retire a Yankee if given a chance, but that will not be as a SS if he wants to get to 3000 hits…
By the way I got it wrong before – Jeter has played about 10 games when he he wasn’t the SS so his hits so hits hits as SS is probably 2520 or so and he’s got a bit further to go to get the all time record…
by TLVP on Feb 5, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So we would have 2 of the best SS's in the history of the game
not playing short?
by ryanwk628 on Feb 5, 2009 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You guys are missing the point
For a shortstop, Jeter is an excellent hitter and a poor fielder. Shorstop is one of the most difficult defensive position and getting subpar defense from your SS hurts the team a lot more than getting it from 1B or RF.
Jeter’s bat is solid for an up the middle position, but merely average for a corner outfielder or first baseman, so putting him in CF just makes too much sense. That position is less demanding and his defensive abilities should carry over reasonably well.
by 3460kuri on Feb 5, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
he has the arm to play center?
I know he has a quick release and is accurate (for the most part) but the range to throw someone out?
by ryanwk628 on Feb 5, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
let's put this way...
damon? bernie? either them have a cannon them? jeter’s arm is fine for CF.
by NumberSeven on Feb 5, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just because weve had bad defence
dosent mean we should have diminished expectations.
by ryanwk628 on Feb 5, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He won't do it ...
From what I’ve seen of Jeter, he’s not all about numbers—other than championships. I could actually see him walking away from the game with 3,900 hits after his contract is up—and especially if the brass are asking him to consider a move to cf. And let’s not forget about Austin Jackson. What if the kid hits .330 and steals 40 this season?
No, I really think with his legacy secure, regardless of his numbers, Jeter will walk away and quickly become this generation’s Joe D.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on Feb 5, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rob Neyer gives his take
here:
There are a great number of variables in this equation, and there’s another that has not been included yet: Brett Gardner. Granted, Gardner was terrible as a New York Yankee last season. But as a Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankee, he posted a .414 on-base percentage. He’s got a .389 career OBP in the minors. Gardner is also exceptionally fast, can steal a base and cover some serious ground in center field (his defensive stats last season were fantastic).
My guess is that if we add Gardner to our equation — if we assume he shares center field with Cabrera, and even gets two-thirds of the playing time — then the benefit of adding Orlando Cabrera and moving Derek Jeter drops to something like zero wins. In which case it’s not worth doing … unless the real point isn’t to win games, but rather to get Derek Jeter into center field for good. Which might make sense, except the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect is actually a center fielder named Austin Jackson, who figures to take over the position in 2010.
Jeter’s contract runs through 2010. Given the personnel at hand, the Yankees should probably just leave him at shortstop this season and probably next, and then let him go.
and i’m afraid I agree with him.
by Travis G on Feb 5, 2009 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you agree that the Yanks..
should let Jeter go?
by NumberSeven on Feb 5, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
he’s safely in his decline phase. he’s a good hitting, sub-par defensive shortstop making $18 mil/year!
by 2011, we can be almost assured of having a good CFer, whether it’s Ajax, or a trade/FA, who will gives better offense AND defense than DJ.
Jeter will be 37. do you know ANY good SS who’s been effective at 37+? There have been exactly 2 SSs in history who posted an above average OPS+ after the age of 37: Honus Wagner and Luke Appling, and both retired before 1950.
by Travis G on Feb 7, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
while your argument is sound
it doesn’t take into account sentiment- and that will come into play with this one. i guarantee it.
by NumberSeven on Feb 7, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree that sentiment
may have a (rather large) effect on retaining DJ, but it shouldn’t. Cash should be smart enough to know the difference between paying a player for future vs. past performance.
by Travis G on Feb 7, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i hear ya..
but i’d still be shocked if it happened.
by NumberSeven on Feb 7, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Get out of here
That is the most stupidest thing I have heard let Jeter go no way Jeter is a Yankee and if we want to win another ring we need his leadership
by alireza317 on Feb 6, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
first off
if you want to appear at all intelligent, use punctuation. your ‘comment’ could best be described as a rambling fragmented rant, devoid of fact and full of hyperbole.
Yes, assuming he continues to decline (and we have no reason to think he won’t, he’s not juicing), let Jeter walk (unless he’s willing to take a part-time role and a big pay cut). you cant get so emotionally attached to players. we let Bernie go. we let Wetteland go.
the Yankees don’t owe him any loyalty – they will end up paying him ~$200 million through 2010. not enough for you?
like Neyer wrote, the Yanks will almost certainly have better options at both SS and CF in 2011. Did you notice what happens when you give an aging, declining star a long contract? it usually bites you, e.g. Posada, Pedro, etc.
i hope Jeter shows the class he has by just retiring at that point. Joe D did so.
btw, what kind of contract would you give him? how much is ‘leadership’ worth to you from a poor fielding SS and (by that time) a below average hitter?
by Travis G on Feb 7, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jeter's not going anywhere
He’s the one guy that will decide where he plays and when. Hopefully his relationship is quality enough with Girardi, so Joe can start nudging him that direction.
And even then it will be what’s best for the team…a young stud is ready to move up and Cano or Arod goes down or something like that. Injuries, whether they are his own or someone else’s will probably be the biggest factor in any move.
by tozer55 on Feb 5, 2009 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jeter should have been moved to CF as soon as Bernie could no longer play the position.
Certainly when A-Rod was signed.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Feb 7, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
From today's NY Post
Keep these facts in mind: The first season of a new contract would be 2011, Jeter’s age-37 season. No team has won it all with a shortstop that old, and only one (the 1956 Dodgers with Pee Wee Reese) even reached the World Series.
Just two shortstops 37 or older (Honus Wagner and Luke Appling) have generated an OPS greater than .800 (minimum 300 plate appearances), and it was last done by Appling 60 years ago.
Jeter’s offense already is trending the wrong way. Over the last three seasons, his OPS has gone from .900 to .840 to .771; his homers from 14 to 12 to 11; his steals from 34 to 15 to 11. What do you think his offense will look like in two years?
And how about his defense? Every statistical evaluation shows Jeter’s range to consistently be among the majors’ worst, and the scouting community pretty much confirms that.
-Joel Sherman’s column
by BrianByron on Feb 8, 2009 10:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs


















