Thinking About Japanese Pitching

by jscape2000 on Feb 20, 2009 8:44 PM EST in Analysis Comment 12 comments

“Darvish has better control than Matsuzaka,” Yoshii said. “You’d be hard-pressed to find an example over the course of a season where he got knocked out on walks. He has exceptional control of every pitch known to man except a knuckleball. Simple economics suggest that the Fighters, if they consented to the posting, would improve on the record $51 million fee collected by Matsuzaka’s former team, the Seibu Lions.

I'm anxious to separate the hype from reality. I have a hard time fathoming how a pitcher who has never thrown a big league pitch could be worth a deal approaching $110M+. I was glad when the Yankees lost the bit for Dice-K by $8M to the Mets, and by $19M to the Red Sox.

Matsuzaka is a more interesting comparison than ever.

While we expect a veteran pitcher to be most effective against teams who haven't seen him, Dice-K had a mixed rookie 2007: his 4.40 ERA and 80BB fell short of expectations but his 204.2IP and his 201K were promising.

2008 was one step back, another step forward- although K/9 held steady (8.84 vs. 8.27) his BB/9 (think pitch recognition) jumped from 3.52 to 5.05. While his HR/9 (the symptom) dropped from 1.10 to 0.64, his Line Drive% (the disease) stayed the same (18.0% a tick up to 18.1%).

The Yankees have to carefully weigh how much a young starter is really worth.

With millions invested in Sabathia and Burnett, but going year-to-year with Wang can the Yankees justify a major investment? With Pettitte riding his last rodeo (Clemens reference intentional), do the Yanks trust Joba and Phil to claim the future, do they believe IPK, Aceves, Horne, or Coke can hold down a spot until Brackman, McAllister, or Cole are ready?

One more reason to watch the WBC very closely.

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What to do...

Sign Darvish, sell high on Wang or keep Wang if Chamberlain can’t stay healthy as a starter (a scarier thought than being stuck on an elevator while your parents are copulating) or Hughes busts (a scenario I don’t think is likely). Furthermore, if CC opts out maybe Betances or Brackman can be ready by then.

by Omar Little on Feb 21, 2009 5:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

dont believe the hype

Dice-K was insane in Japan and clearly their best pitching prospect ever, this darvish guy is not better and not worth half the money!

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by kdog on Feb 21, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

did you just make that up?

at the same ages, Darvish has been considerably better than DiceK.

by Travis G on Feb 21, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

considerably better?

do you have any stats to back that statement up? I was just going by the hype that dice-k had and how he was supposedly the best pitching prospect to come out of Japan.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by kdog on Feb 28, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

R U Kidding?

Why would the Yanks trade away a perennial 18-game winner in Wang? He suffered a fluke foot injury last year – not arm, back, nor leg. Expect Wang to win at least 16 games this season.

In the current market, there is no way any team would be willing to pay more in posting fees than that of Dice-K’s.

by BigSlim on Feb 21, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wang

Why they would trade away Wang: Out of Darvish, CC, Burnett, Joba he’d likely be the worst pitcher, and easiest to trade, he would get an awesome pull, they would likely need to make room for Hughes (if he ends up being good), so Wang would make the most sense to trade.

by Omar Little on Feb 21, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yu Darvish is impressive but

I would like to see guys like Dellin Betances, or Andrew Brackman, work their way into the pitching rotation. Betances especially. Darvish is only 22 i believe, so he does have that youth factor.

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Feb 21, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're right

by the time Davrish is available some of our really young guys are gonna be knocking on the door. Ideally brackman, betances, heredia, and banuelos have approached their respective ceilings and we’ll have a fleet of gus ready to compete for top of the rotation status. Realistically we’d be lucky for one of those guys to come close to their ceilings but it is still fun as hell to hope.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Feb 22, 2009 3:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i for one

would like the Yanks to go hard after Darvish if he’s posted.

he’s been better than DiceK at the same ages (better WHIP, more Ks, lower ERA, etc), and if he’s posted after this season, will be just 23! that means he wouldn’t have to be thrown into the ML fire right away. we could start him in AAA until he’s ready.

by Travis G on Feb 22, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I suspect the fire

is precisely what he’ll need. Look at how dominant Igawa has been at AAA; there’s nothing for a seasoned veteran of the Japanese Leagues to learn there.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 23, 2009 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe

but in hindsight, Igawa should’ve started in AAA – stayed there until he proved himself, and THEN moved up. he could’ve been halfway mediocre if he had started in AAA instead of a trainwreck. half his problem (imo) is now mental bc he got rocked in MLB. he seems afraid to throw strikes.

by Travis G on Feb 24, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs