The Last Hurrahs

by jscape2000 on Feb 19, 2009 6:00 AM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

Jeter stood before reporters today and voiced his frustration with cheaters.

“One thing that’s irritating and really upsets me a lot is when you hear people say that everybody did it,” Jeter said. “Everybody wasn’t doing it.”

So I've been thinking about Derek Jeter's steady decline since his age 32 season in 2006.

Jeter at 32, posted the second best season of his career: 132OPS+, 301TB, 2nd in MVP voting.

Willie Randolph had 3 great seasons: 133 OPS+ at age 25, 121 OPS+ at age 32, and a 126 OPS+ age 36 season fueled mainly by a sudden 80 point jump in BABIP.

Yogi kept his bat well into his baseball dotage. At 25 he caught games, played more and posted a 135 OPS+. He posted an OPS+ between 110 and 142 every year through age 36, averaging 127 OPS+ over that span. Oh yeah, he caught 133 or more games 7 straight years, and 121 games an 8th year. Outlier.

The Mick was obviously on a different planet as a slugger with an incredible (and underrated) batting eye. But Mantle's career transformed after age 32. Mantle averaged an OBP+ of 189 in 149 games for his 7 seasons from age 23 to 29 and enjoyed a bounce-back 143 game 178 OPS+ at age 32. Yes, I'm considered his MVP winning age 30 196 OPS+ a down year in an inner-circle Hall of Fame career. But in the 518 games Mantle played in his 4 seasons after turning 32, he never came within a long foul ball of his prime performance, and retired embarrassed by the decline of his batting average.

What should we expect from Jeter this year, age 35?

While I don't expect his declining BB (77-69-56-52) to rebound, if they hold steady, I think there's a good chance his SLG will rebound (.450, .483, .450, .408). The power outage seems directly related to being hit on the hand.

.305/.360/.450 will put his OBP+ closer to his 120 career line than the league average mark he posted last season.

That should thoroughly polarize the already murky extension debate.

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i hope you're right about DJ

we could use a big year from him – he is the #2 hitter after all.

question: would Girardi ever consider moving DJ down in the lineup?

by Travis G on Feb 19, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions

This subject is very complicated.

Here is a list of reasons that conclusions drawn about aging players by looking back are pretty questionable.

1. Money, There is so much money in the game that players are now year round baseball players. I do not think we’ll ever see again the 2 sport guys like Gene Connelly or Dave Debusier. Ball players no longer have ‘off season’ jobs like selling insurance or running bars or bowling alleys. This means the maintain they’re conditioning better. Many come to spring training in great condition ready to compete for their roster spots. (see Brian Bruney and Jose Molina, etc.) I would claim this would tend to make players in the modern era able to extend their most productive years. Training knowledge is also very different. Weights are used in a way they were not in the past.

2. Money’s effect on medicine. With the huge increase in the money in the game players and teams have reason to spend on medical care of the TALENT. Medicine as a profession likes to service people with money and also they love the notoriety that comes from high profile patients. I offer a short list of things which were developed since Mickey and Yogi retired which unquestionably extend careers.
a. Reconstructive surgery (Tommy John, knee, etc.)
b. Ultrascopic surgery
c. MRI
d. Microsurgery, Think about Matsui’s wrist.
e. sports medicine, any have an OED? In the 50’s teams had “trainers” who wrapped and taped injuries. It seems like bleeding compared to current therapies. I do not think I even heard of a physical therapist until the 70’s.
f. Contact lenses
g. vision improvement surgery.
h. new drugs (legal)
i. new drugs (illegal)

3. a. Money’s effect on the incentives to tolerate cheating or to cheat. Baseball damaged it’s relationship with it’s fan base with strife and strikes and cancellations caused by those. When the first generation of juicers began approaching slugging records that got fans excited about baseball again. Baseball’s management cynically looked the other way. Say what they will, I truly believe this.
b. The payout for a player to find a way to squeeze out 2 or 3 more years (or move from average player to star) was so huge that the temptation was too much for a few. When it became clear the few were not being caught and punished, the temptation became too much for quite a few. When so many players were juicing the pressure became worse. Imagine being a marginal player, being beat out for the team by several people who were juicing. Could you have spent a year or two in AAA because you wouldn’t juice, if so I admire you. How about being 3rd in the league in homers when you thought 8 of the top 10 juiced? I know this is oversimplified, but you get the point. Some players stayed clean and they are to be admired. But enough juiced to possibly lead you astray in considering career length.

4. The effect of money in the world, not just the game, on nutrition. These guys are really big compared with players of the past. Look at the films of classic games. Look up the size of players. These guys are really big. I suspect this is a symptom of overall improved nutritional health. I could be wrong but I think I’m not.

So, from the 50’s to 2000 all the factors trended to lengthening the careers of players. The attempt to remove steroids from the game is probably going to role back a few of the gains. Since it’s hard to know how to project people into the future because of all the changes.

On point with Jeter, he’s a special guy. Extend him. If he cannot perform any more he’ll retire. Extend him.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Feb 19, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions

I would add two other factors to the mix.

Free agency. When the reserve clause ruled, players had little in the way of financial incentive to extend their careers. Now a still-productive player on the downside of his career can make a decent living as a role-player on a contending team.

The designated hitter rule.

But mainly I agree with you that today’s players are well compensated enough that they can focus on staying in condition year round and play winter ball if necessary to maintain or improve their skills. The whole purpose of spring training used to be to allow players to “play themselves into shape.”

Re DJ’s performance going forward, the Mick is hardly a valid comparison. He abused his body in ways that would be unthinkable to today’s premier athletes. It’s staggering to think of the athlete he could have been, had he taken better care of himself.

by django48 on Feb 19, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

Mantle's lifelong knee injury

Would have been quickly corrected with today’s technology. If he were born 20 or 30 years later he might have hit 800 homers. And you’re right about the DH rule. IT gives a team the ability to rest a player while keeping his bat in the order. Like Matsui now, it helps a player with leg problems keep hitting. I imagine Mick might have been able to play many more years with better medical care and the use of the DH role.

Alcohol abuse is a tough problem. It’s hard for me to be confident a guy who was that much of a substance abuser then wouldn’t be a substance abuser now. And the substances he abused might have been worse.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Feb 19, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

on the substance-abuse front

it was refreshing- although maybe refreshing’s not the right word- to see Mike Schmidt say that if he played in the steroid era he too might have been tempted to use. That’s in contrast to so many of these guys who are so high and mighty, sitting on their pedestal saying “Back in my day…”

by NumberSeven on Feb 19, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions