Jeter above reproach?

by jpoppejr on Feb 17, 2009 8:06 AM EST Comment 8 comments

As a Yankee fan, and more importantly a baseball fan, I am somewhat concerned about today and the remaining names on the "list". I love this game and my fear is the possiblity that Jeter may have used. We all know that he is the golden boy of baseball and what happens if he is on the list?

While Jeter's ABs per hits and RBIs are fairly consistent the ABs per HR appear strange. I know there are a lot of quantitive bloggers here, any plausible explanations?

						ABs per
	AB	H	HR	RBI	AVG	H	HR	RBI
2001	614	191	21	74	311	3.2	29.2	8.3
2002	644	191	18	75	297	3.4	35.8	8.6
2003	482	156	10	52	324	3.1	48.2	9.3
2004	643	188	23	78	292	3.4	28.0	8.2
2005	654	202	19	70	309	3.2	34.4	9.3
2006	623	214	14	97	343	2.9	44.5	6.4
2007	639	206	12	73	322	3.1	53.3	8.8
2008	596	179	11	69	300	3.3	54.2	8.6

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That's not anything unusual

In 10 of Jeter’s 13 seasons, he’s slugged between .430 and .483. He slugged .405 in his rookie year and .408 last year, and .552 in what was obviously his career year (1999). I don’t know how to calculate standard deviations and whatnot, but his level of power has been pretty consistent throughout his career, even factoring in his best and worst seasons.

I don’t believe that an increase in home runs (or a decrease) is a sign of steroid usage, but if I did, Jeter probably wouldn’t be one of the guys I’d question.

by 3460kuri on Feb 17, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Remember this

2003 is the year Jeter tore up his shoulder in Toronto. Take that out and the numbers from 2001 to 2004 are very consistent. You see the decline in his power since then as he has gotten older.

by Ed Valentine on Feb 17, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jeter ...

If he used, I’d be surprised. For one Jeter appears to have been raised right. His parents are solid. He’s been nothing but the same since breaking in. Secondly, if he was using, a quick glance at his numbers should indicate to all that he was taking the wrong stuff and should demand his money back from Arod—oh, that’s bad.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Feb 17, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In 2004

According to fangraphs Jeter hit 32% of his BABIP were fly balls compared to his average of about 24%. His hr/flyball rate was actually lower than his career average. So I would tend to think more evidence would be needed since this is easily explainable. I did not see 2001 but it is probably similar.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS

by red257 on Feb 20, 2009 10:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Career HR/FB

rate is 12.8, 2004 is 13.1. I was looking at his post season rate, which is higher. But this is not a large enough deviation to cause any red flags to be raised. It’s pretty normal.

by red257 on Feb 20, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Leaving aside

All the normal “we can’t use stats to triangulate PED use” aside-
I’d look for the keys to be in a mix of 3 places: rising SLG/ XBH, relatedly, a higher LD%, and sudden durability for the injury prone.
When we look at Adrian Beltre’s 2004 contract year with the Dodgers, he went from .424 SLG, 55 XBH in 2003 to .629 SLG, 80 XBH in 2004.
When you look at Jeter’s 2004, 68XBH with a .471 SLG.
1999 70XBH, .552 SLG.
2001 59 XBH, .480 SLG.
2006 56XBH, .483 SLG.

As kuri said, that’s got to fall within the standard deviation.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 20, 2009 9:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I knew the stat guys would come to the rescue. Thanks for setting me straight.

by jpoppejr on Feb 22, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jpoppejr Is Wrong

Dude, it’s impossible for Jeter to have used. Seriously! The increase in Jeter’s slugging percentage in 1999 was because ALL of the Yankees were good back then. They were at the height of there game, they had won 4 previous World Series, and they were capable for more. You need to think before you post. GO YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Jeter on Mar 2, 2009 11:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs