PECOTA, Pythag and Brett Gardner

by jscape2000 on Feb 10, 2009 8:04 PM EST in Analysis Comment 5 comments

Baseball Prospectus has posted it's predictions on the 2009 final standings. They see the Yanks scoring 838 runs against 674 allowed. That would be the best pitching staff in the league, paired with the second best offense.

And we'll finish a game behind the Red Sox*.

*For those of you keeping score at home, the Rays will win 92 games (8 more than the AL Central champ Indians and 10 more than the A's atop the West).

PECOTA predicts that the Yanks will score about 50 more runs than last year while allowing about 50 fewer. A one hundred swing in differential is not as big as you'd expect. The Red Sox cut 200 runs off their differential going from 4th in 2006 to first in 2007, and the Rays slashed 250 runs going from 66 wins in 2007 to 65 losses in 2008.

Is it too early to predict that the Spring Training ABs to watch belong to Brett Gardner?

I think he plays a better CF than Melky, and if BG can hit around league average (.767 OPS in 2008), the number of balls he'll track down in center plus allowing the corners to play closer to the lines could allow the Yankees to outperform PECOTA on both ends.

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It is..

pretty hard to have a league average OPS when your unlikely to hit a single HR in a full season.

I hope Gardner can do well, but I think any one of those all speed / zero power guys are highly guilty until proven innocent, Jason Tyner ? Joey Gathright? check out their minor #

by RollingWave on Feb 10, 2009 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i really HOPE

BG steps up and shows he can be an everyday CFer (for that matter, I hope Melky does too), but i have my doubts.

but in defense of BG, he has a higher (MiLB) isolated patience and SLG than either Tyner or Gathright.

by Travis G on Feb 10, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gardner

Question for Yankee fans-
Gardner is clearly very fast, and seems to be strong defensively. His numbers in the minors are also good. Of course he has no power, and he was not a youngster when he put up his best numbers in the minors, but he looks strong in several ways. Why do Yankee fans seem to expect so little from him? What are the thoughts here?

by Buzzy on Feb 11, 2009 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i personally expect

pretty good things from him – at the very least he should be a great LIDR and PR, which is rather valuable.

what scares me is obviously his lack of power. despite his great OBP skills in the minors, ML pitchers have better control and wont walk him due to a lack of control. there’s nothing to keep pitchers from grooving pitch after pitch bc of his lack of power – when they do, his OBP skills dont mean so much. so he’s got to show some ability to hit for AVG to be an everyday CFer.

by Travis G on Feb 12, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He just isn't much of a prospect

Sure, I hope the guy does well and proves me wrong. I’d love it if he did. But the reality is that guys who don’t reach the bigs until they’re 24/25, and who proceed to post a sub .600 OPS when they do, really can’t be labeled “prospects”.

If BG can post a .350 OBP, and steal some bases, then I think he’s useful to this team. Otherwise, file him under the category “Clay Bellinger”…..

by 3460kuri on Feb 12, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs