Going Behind the Numbers on Granderson

by jscape2000 on Dec 9, 2009 11:00 AM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

I'm setting aside my mixed feelings on dealing away two of our most valuable trade chips for a guy who hit .183/.245/.239 against lefties.

I know that he put up a 3.5 WARP3 despite his struggles.

I know that Dave Cameron gave the move an A+ for the Yanks.

So I wanted to look at three quick measurement (courtesy of Fangraphs) to try to determine whether the Yanks have pulled off another Swisher, bringing in a player ready to bounce back after an off season.

Batting Average on Balls In Play.

Old Faithful. Sure enough, Granderson's BABIP was .276 in 2009, .063 below his previous career average. His K% and BB% stayed in line with his 2008 output, and his LD% suggests that he should have expected a BABIP around .330.

Much like Jeter's inexplicable 2004, these kind of bad seasons happen to every player.

Batted Ball Data

Granderson's LD% has never fluctuated more than 2%, and his 2009 showing was actually above his career average. That's a good sign.

But there are bad signs in Batted Ball, too. My biggest concern is his nearly 10% jump in his Flyball Percentage, from 40.7% all the way to 49.3% Swisher and Tex had the highest FB% of any of the Yankee regulars at 45.6% and 43.8%, respectively. While a lefty hitting flies in Yankee Stadium would seem like the definition of a good thing, I'm worried that after averaging 5.8% Infield Flies for his first 3 full season, that number soared to 13% last season.

To me this suggests that a problem with pitch selection, popping up pitches that might be in the wrong part of the zone or not adjusting to offspeed (the way Swisher looked in the playoffs).

Pitch Type Seen

Thanks to the pF/X data on Fangraphs, we know that over the last 4 seasons Granderson has seen a fastball 58.85% of the time, and 58.5% of the time last season. The off-speed pitches were just as in line- a 0.25% difference for sliders, a 0.15% difference for curves, and a 0.15% difference in changeups.

To see someone who can't handle a certain pitch, look at the transformation in how Soriano was pitched after his weakness on the slider was exposed in the '03 World Series.

While this doesn't address pitch order (does he chase sliders after seeing a fastball, does he look for a particular pitch early and consistantly fall behind in the count?), and it doesn't tell us if there's a hole in his swing, I find it encouraging for what it is.

Early Conclusions

It could have been an unlucky season (Cano RISP) or a bad season. Maybe Kevin Long sees the fix for a mechanical mistake.

After going through the numbers here, I'm no longer as negative on the trade as I was when it first went down. I think Granderson is due for a bounce-back.

I'll be looking for someone able to give me a scouting report on Granderson's tendancies- has he changed his swing? Is he trying to pull everything (a la Matsui)? Does he get fooled by a certain type of pitch (Soriano) or have trouble with a particular location (Giambi)? But until I get good evidence otherwise, I'll expect a strong 2010 from Grandy.

Welcome aboard.

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Comments

yeah, I think he’ll bounce back this year. A BABIP 60 points below his career average shows he may have been unlucky last year. I read a post saying that even if you take into account his increased popups, his expected BA should have been .278 last year.

by Wraithpk on Dec 9, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions

I hope he tries to hit more line drives too this year.

I also really hope that he doesn’t try to swing for the fences with the short porch over there either….which would probably mean more pop outs.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 9, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Further Granderson analysis (excellent read)

http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/11/playing-in-the-spray-curtis-granderson/

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions

That is an interesting article.
I agree with his point that not all fly balls are created equal- hopefully the huge increase in infield flies is a blip that will regress or a problem that can be corrected.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 9, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Like one of the commentators mentioned there, the pop-flies are probably attributed to Granderson attempting to pull balls pitched to the outside.

In ‘09, one thing I noticed is that his contact rate of 60% at pitches outside the strikezone was up from career norm of below 50%. This could very well mean that he was expanding his zone too much – in tuned with the Tigers’ free-swinging philosophy. Pitch recognition hasn’t been an issue as evident of Granderson’s career Pitches/PA rate of 4.0 (same in ’09).

I think it’s definitely correctable if he lays off more outside balls. I could care less about his K-rate as long he stays aggressive by swinging at more hittable pitches.

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

+1 to jscape for the write-up

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions

Thanks.
I try.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 9, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Oh..

and I don’t think this is another “Swisher” trade.

He gave up basically nothing for Swisher, and he had an excellent season last year.

AJAX, IPK and Coke is a lot more than the Swisher deal. I know i say Coke is a POS…but he’s still adequate and a MLB reliever. IPK would’ve been a MLB reliever and possibly a spot starter and AJAX is the centerpiece prospect. So its not like they gave up a rosin bag and a box of Dunkin Donuts like they did in the Swish deal.

This one is more equal I’d say, even if Grandy becomes the All-Star CF he was in 2007 again.

Other than that….good stuff.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 9, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions

I don’t think it’s a terrible move, having not given up Joba, Hughes, or Montero. I think the Yanks should let Damon, Matsui, and Molina walk and let things be for 2010, with Melky in Left and Posada and others on their “days off” the DH by committee and grab a top tier pitcher after next season with the cash they will have saved from this year.

by david d on Dec 9, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Screw that

I want Godzilla back

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Dec 9, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

There’s a difference between trade chips that are “expendable”, as compared to “useless”.

I am still of the opinion IPK falls under the “useless” category, at least in NY, but Coke is certainly a viable reliever. (Prone to the long ball, I hear you, but a fairly sturdy lefty-lefty match up. He’s supposed to get the left handers out, but who faces Utley on a daily basis?)

AJax, again, he certainly is one of our best prospects, but if we’re trading from potential Granderson to ACTUAL Granderson, at the cost of an expendable reliever, I’ll take that trade.

Definitely more even, and I guess that’s why it sparked so many opinions on the subject. If this trade was more lopsided, there would be 1 or 2 opinions, and the threads would have died.

With Pettite signing today, (according to Paul Heyman, courtesy of Ed), still gotta address the (contingency) plan for Starter 4/5. A reliever I believe could be brought up from the minors, or perhaps a “competent” reliever would do. Please don’t go get a Mike Gonzalez or whomever. Actually, getting 1 or even 2 of Duscherer/Harden/Sheets might give us all the relievers we’ll need. Duscherer can relieve, and if we sign Harden/Sheets, it slides one of Hughes/Joba into the bullpen. Plus the emergence of Roberson and other various call-ups, I would think we’d have nothing to do but wait for the season to start.

Oh, that, and we have to deal with the LF situation…

by Vancouverguy on Dec 9, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Too homer-happy?

I think Granderson should do well. From his BA drop for a few more HRs, I suspect he was trying to do too much to carry the Tigers, and it showed up in overswinging and trying too hard to pull. As it was, he was clutch in the lost 163rd game. With the Yanks no one player has to carry the team and this may let Granderson cut down the swing some for better contact. I would rather see .280 with 25 HRs than .250 with 30 HRs, especially with his speed to manufacture runs also. If he hits #2, he should get good pitches to hit.

by logiet on Dec 9, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions

I don’t see him hitting #2, he doesn’t walk enough. Swisher would be a better 2.

by Wraithpk on Dec 9, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Is Grandy certain to play CF?

I would guess if Damon comes back for 1-2 yrs absolutely yes. If not, is he better defensively than Melky?

Sorry to see Harden sign elsewhere. Perhaps Sheets? Yanks can gamble on a medical for back of the roation.

Hope Phillies sign Doc Halladay. Do not want to see Montero go anywhere and do NOT want him on Bosox..

by MSP Giant on Dec 10, 2009 7:26 AM EST reply actions

Yes.

Granderson is better defensively than Melky.

Don’t go by UZR and all a that bullcrap (or of course, the Mike Francesca argument…one series against Minnesota).

Grand Central is a very good CF. There must’ve been something wrong with the OF metrics, cuz even Torii Hunter was ‘bad’ last year (and worse than Grandy).

"It ain't over till its over"---

If there's anything I'm sure of, its the Sun coming up in the morning, and Steve Smith.

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 10, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks FB

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. I digest those metrics and develop an opinion based on what I see.

I do not expect Damon to return to the Yanks on NY’s terms. Matsui might be willing to take a big cut – dunno. If neither returns that puts Nady or Melky in LF. I am just fine with starting the season that way.

The liklihood of Nady playing in NY in 2010? Is he a UFA?

Go Giants!

by MSP Giant on Dec 10, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Nady I dunno...

I think Scott Boras is his agent, so he’s not gonna take a pay cut. For a guy who missed last season cuz he had his second Tommy John surgery..as an OF, I’d let him go.

The Yanks are talking with Damon right now and I think he really wants to come back all in all (Boras is in his ear of course too…)

I think Damon comes back when all is said and done.

So it probably meas just Granderson for Matsui is the substitution.

Considering Grandy can play the field, and very good too at it, had a really off year last year so you could probably expect him to approach his 20/20/20/20 seasons of years past.

The only thing is where do they play Damon? He can still play LF, but who DH’s? Do they sign someone for that?

The best is to have Melky play LF, cuz he’s a better fielder than Damon and have Johnny DH …with Swish in RF and Grandy in CF.

"It ain't over till its over"---

If there's anything I'm sure of, its the Sun coming up in the morning, and Steve Smith.

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 10, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

Damon as DH

makes sense when you look at the options but only because he can play the outfield. Matsui is a better hitter.

I just am loathe to consider paying Damon $20-22 million for two years. That second year will be a killer. Rather have Matsui at $6-8 million for one. Remember, Jesus Montero will split time with Posada at catcher in 2011 and whomever is not catching will DH. Montero is an awesome hitter and adequate ( but improving) catcher.

by MSP Giant on Dec 10, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Yanks vs lefties

Joe Posnanski at CNNSI

The Yankees annihilate left-handed pitching. They hit .286/.365/.480 as a team against lefties in 2009. With Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira … teams are not going to be loading up lefties against the Yankees.

by MSP Giant on Dec 10, 2009 3:10 PM EST reply actions