Improving the rotation without adding Roy Halladay

by 3460kuri on Dec 4, 2009 10:04 AM EST

I've been against the Yankees trading for Roy Halladay since he became available on the trade market. It really has nothing to do with Halladay himself - clearly, he is one of the best half-dozen pitchers in the game - but everything to do with the costs of acquiring him, not only in prospects, but also in salary. The Yankees have huge financial resources at their disposal, but they already have $95 million dollars of payroll - $95 million! - committed for the 2013 season, and that doesn't include Derek Jeter's inevitable contract extension. I don't care if we're talking about Roy Halladay, Albert Pujols, or Babe Ruth's ghost, I just think it's unwise to make another huge financial commitment through the middle of the next decade to another player who will be on the wrong side of 35 when the contract expires.

Putting those concerns aside, I don't like dealing for Halladay simply because it's too obvious and too predictable.

The thing that separates good teams and good GMs from mediocre ones is the ability to get creative and to think outside the box, to get something for nothing, or something for very little. Think about it. Signing Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, or trading for Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez, doesn't really take much. Sure, GMs need to be able to pony up the money or the prospects, or both, to make these guys a part of their team, but it doesn't require much thought.

I want to see the Yankees make the non-obvious move and get $20 million of production for $15 million, or trade a handful of B-list prospects for a solid contributor. I want to see Cashman make more moves like the trade for Dave Justice or Nick Swisher. I want to see him get a deal or find a bargain.

This is how the Yankees starting rotation broke down, in terms of WIns Above Replacement, in 2009:

1. C.C. Sabathia - 5.3 WARP

2. A.J. Burnett - 3.2 WARP

3. Andy Pettitte - 2.4 WARP

4. Joba Chamberlain - 1.0 WARP

5. Wang/Mitre/Gaudin/Hughes - -1.7 WARP

Halladay has averaged 5.5 WARP over the past five seasons, so if you plugged him into the Yankees rotation, he'd replace the Wang/Mitre combo and would theoretically represent a net 7.2 win upgrade. That's huge. But it's not the only way to improve the rotation.

Suppose Joba posts 2.0 WARP from the 4th slot and Hughes manages 1.0 WARP from the 5th - that's a 3.7 win upgrade. Or suppose the Yankees sign Ben Sheets and he puts up a 3.0 WARP season - that's a 4.7 win upgrade. Let's even think about Chien-Ming Wang returning to form and posting another 5.0 WARP season like he did in 2007 - that would represent a 6.7 win upgrade. Even something as simple as getting replacement-level performance from the fifth spot improves the team by nearly two wins.

And so my point is that while adding Halladay is obviously the best way to improve the rotation for 2010, if Cashman could add 50-75% of that production for 10% of the cost, shouldn't he do that instead?

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Good Post...

I see your point and this is where the Sox have been able to shine in the past 5 – 6 years is getting creative. The achillies heel of the Yankees has been the “Win Now!” mentality. The fans expect it, the owners expect, etc but Hughes, Chamberlain, Wang all have question marks associated with them. The same thing goes for Sheets or Harden and so on. I would like to Halladay in pinstripes but not give the Blue Jays the farm for him. What it come down to (Buster Olney of ESPN probably put it best) was what are the values of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Are they front end starters, are they closers are they back-end rotation guys? Once that question can be answered we will know the Halladay to get/not to get question.

by RuBiCaNT on Dec 4, 2009 11:27 AM EST reply actions

I understand where you're going with the numbers

However, Halladay is a sure thing (7+ IP/GS) during the season and beyond whereas you still don’t know what you’re getting out of the combo of Joba/Hughes/Gaudin/Mitre. That means less innings coming out of the pen which in turn makes the entire pitching staff all the more efficient. All of this really boils down to what the Jays want in return.

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 4, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions

Agreed!

The cost of Halliday is ridiculous. It is Santana all over. Keep your kids to safe quard the future. We just won a world series, While it will be difficult to repeat due to the age of the principals it is also not a time to panic. If we don’t continue to get younger we willl enter a dry spell similar to the one we experienced beginning in 1965.

If we want a pitcher it only costs money to sign Lackey, wolf etc. if we cant resign Damon and Matsui for reasonable one year contracts we should consider Holliday, Matt won’t cost as much as Damon and Matsui cost and leaves the DH position open for rotation.

by Jtmc on Dec 4, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions

Holliday + Halladay = Halliday

I would sign THIS guy.

by ROCNation on Dec 4, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

A guy that hits for a .400+ wOBA and can pitch every 5th day to a 155 ERA+? We’d have our own Steve Nebraska from “The Scout.”

by Wraithpk on Dec 4, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I'd really like if they signed Ben Sheets

sure, he’s injury prone. But that’s a major issue if he’s your #1 or #2.

He won’t be for the Yanks.

…but he sure as hell is capable of being a #1.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 4, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions

holy shit

who gave Damon and Matsui a raise that makes them command more on the market then Matt Holliday?You must mean there combined salaries,or atleast I hope that is what you meant?

by cashman bashman on Dec 4, 2009 11:48 AM EST reply actions

Of course that is what I meant. The two free agents made 26 million this year. Cashman wants the DH position open to rotate Jorge, Derek Alex and Tex in it. Signing Matt improves our offense in left field while providing rest to our aging regulars.

I wouldn’t mind bringing up Miranda to take the DH spot when everyone else is playing their position. He can hit with power. overall we would be a touch weaker offensively unless Miranda takes off but we would be much younger at some key positions.

by Jtmc on Dec 4, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Holliday is a no-brainer...

don’t resign Matsui or Damon, give Holliday 20M a year for like 5-7 years. Not only do you greatly increase the overall quality of the team, but we actually save money over having Damon and Matsui.

by Wraithpk on Dec 4, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Holliday

First of all, he’d cost less than Damon + Matsui in 2009, but he’d cost more than Damon + Matsui in 2010. Holliday will get 20-22 mil per year while Damon should get 9 or 10 and Matsui is unlikely to get more than 6. In my opinion Holliday’s a very good player but not the kind of special player that justifies a 7 year 150 mil contract. On top of that we’d really be limiting our flexibility a few years down the road. We’d have Holliday, A-Rod and Tex all earning over 20 mil a year and all aging at the same time.

If we don’t bring Damon and Matsui back I’d explore the trade market, especially for a guy with a big salary whose team might be willing to move him without getting much back.

Carlos Lee – 3 years, 55.5 mil left
Magglio Ordonez – 1 year, 18 mil left
Matt Holliday – 7 years, 150 mil.

I definitely think one of the first 2 would be a wiser investment.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Dec 4, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

depends on which Mags you're getting

if we get second half of 2009 Mags, I’ll do that. If it’s first half Mags, no thanks…

by Wraithpk on Dec 4, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

YES

I agree – there should be no question. I liked Matsui an Damon but they are $26 million together and cant play the outfield.. Holliday will solidify an outfield spot for many years and cost less too. It also will free up the DH spot and Posada needs to get in it and stop being a baby. I dont understand why they have not already signed Holliday . By the way just sign Pettite and stop the cat and mouse deal. hat leaves one move for a pitche rand another World series

by ghostwalker on Dec 8, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions

I cannot see Wang coming back and dominating that way. I figure with all of his time off the best he’s going to do is be a good back of the rotation guy.

http://www.bronxbaseballdaily.com

by Rob Abruzzese on Dec 4, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions

I still have hopes for Wang

I really do. It could just be that I would be really sad if such a talented pitcher just completely lost it because of an injury. Having said that, I also would rather not trade away the farm or Joba/Hughes for Holliday. Honestly, that’s the real strength of having Yankee Money. Unlike other teams, we can afford to take chances on our farm. If someone doesn’t work out, then they’ll go out and get someone to fix it.

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Dec 4, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions

Sign Andy, Bedard and .....

Yeah either Halladay and Lackey would be great…but. DJ needs to be paid after next year.

If its not broke, don’t fix it. Maybe fine tune it. Sign Andy and Bedard. Have Andy take him under his wing and teach him a few things. He was to be a #1 or #2 for Seattle…but in NY he’d be a 4 or even 5. It would give him some time to find what he has been missing for the last few years. Wang/Gaudin/Joba should be inserted into the 5 slot, and days that Andy can’t get out of bed. Or throw Pineiro, Mulder or Sheets into the mix and save Joba and Hughes for the 7th and 8th. We could sign all 4 Bedard, Pineiro Mulder and Sheets for what we would have to pay Lackey or Halladay.

What I would like to see the Yanks due is pursue that role player that would produce All-Star stuff if given the chance to play everyday without the pressure of carrying the team or trading away our youth. Sign Ankiel to compete with Melky for center, bring back home Marcus Thames to play left. Sign Huff, who could play left and give Tex some days off.

by NJHEAT on Dec 4, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions

please, no more Ankiel talk...

by Wraithpk on Dec 4, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by yankeechaser on Dec 5, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions

Ankiel sucks

forget about him. He hit .230 last year. Thats awful. I know he has a cannon for an arm, but he’s got nothing else. I’ll take Melky, or even Gardner (who can’t hit at all but at least can run) over Ankiel.

by nyyrocks29 on Dec 5, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

Bedard would suck in NY

he’s a quiet pitcher and doesn’t like the spotlight on him and I think would wilt under NY pressure.. Sheets is the way to go.

by RuBiCaNT on Dec 5, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

A sidenote,

a “down year” from CC and he pitches like that? I’d take that every year.

He wasn’t as steady at the beginning of the year, but again, CC does have a reputation of stepping up in the latter parts of the season.

A quick stats-related question though: is 2009’s down year a product of him being unlucky and we can assume he would do even better next season? or is 2009’s down year due to superior teams hitting against him in the AL? The AL Central never had hitting like the Red Sox, and don’t make me laugh about the NL either. I’m intrigued, and of course, I hope that he can up his performance from last year.

by Vancouverguy on Dec 6, 2009 7:14 PM EST reply actions

Well...

I just added up the numbers. The AL East this year, excluding the Yankees, had a combined wOBA of .339. The AL Central and NL Central last year combined, excluding the Indians and Brewers, had a wOBA of .329. In 2007, the AL Central, excluding the Indians, had a wOBA of .322.

So the short answer is yes: he was pitching in tougher competition this year.

The longer answer is that he actually had a bit of a down year as well. If you look at the ratio of his FIP per the division average wOBA he pitched in, it tells us that he was very good in 2007, an absolute beast in 2008, and good but not as good as 2007 in 2009. I would expect him to perform better in the next few years.

by Wraithpk on Dec 6, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions