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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

First Half Rotation

April 4- May 6

Game, off-day, 2 Games, off-day, 3 Games, off-day, 6 Games, off-day, 6 Games, off-day, 9 Games, off-day

May 7- June 7

17 Games, off-day, 13 Games, off-day

June 8- July 15

6 Games, off-day, 9 Games, off-day, 3 Games, off-day, 13 Games, All-Star Break


I'm going to start with the presumption that Hughes will win the fifth spot out of Spring Training.  Hughes has a limit on his innings; the 24-year old pitched a career high 86 major league innings last season, but he had pitched 146 minor league innings back in 2006.

Last season, the Yanks let Joba blow by the Verducci "30-inning" Rule.  He threw 163 IP last season including the postseason, after 100 IP in 2008.  Presumably, he would have been allowed to go farther if he had been effective.

Imagine that they handle Hughes similarly.

Star-divide

To start the season, Joba either goes down to AAA to log innings or he goes into the pen to be a big part of the bridge.  My preference is for the bullpen, but I understand the counter argument.

Hughes is the fifth starter for that first month.  Like Joba did, he'll average 6 or just under 6 innings per start.  He'll have good days and bad day, but he'll pitch 30 innings by his 5th start on May 3rd.

Then the Yanks start that tough stretch of 30 games in 31 days.  Assuming everyone is healthy, I'll call-up and/or move Joba to the rotation and use a 6 man rotation for that stretch.  The Yanks will need spot starters to get through those games anyways, and a 6 man rotation will make 5 turns with only one off-day and games at Boston, at Minnesota, at Shea, and at Detroit plus hosting the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Mets, the Rays and the Twins.  If you're not willing to punt any of those (and I'm not), then use the best starters.

That gets Hughes to 60 innings through June 4th.  He gets another 6 starts (roughly 36 innings) before the All-Star break.  The wheels fell off Joba once he passed his career MLB mark, and I'm not willing to endure two months of failed starts down the stretch.  So after the All-Star break, swap Hughes and Joba.  Hughes will average 13-15 innings per month in the pen (assuming Joe G. doesn't forget he's out there like he did for a couple weeks last season).  If he gets another 40 innings in the pen, he'll have thrown 136 innings, fifty more than his previous career high.

Meanwhile, if Joba is in the pen and manages similar rates to Hughes, he'll have thrown around 150 innings.  If he starts the season at AAA, he'll pitch more innings but not at the major league stress level.


I'm not saying it's a perfect solution, or even that I like it (I think Cash and Co. are banking on one of the 6 starters going down with injury; historically, that's not a bad bet to make).  But if everyone stays healthy, it's the only way I see to maintain Hughes and Joba's status as young starting pitchers.  This could be the season we talk about one as a starter and one as a reliever, but I think they're both too young for that.

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30 games in 31 days

I cannot wait for this.

I wish we could continue to just show up and play for no reason. No umpires, no scorers. Just show up and have fun.
-- Alex Rodriguez

by dorsal on Dec 28, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

I can't imagine that the Yanks will

send Joba back to Scranton. Could happen, I guess, but I’m highly skeptical given Joba’s flashes of brilliance as a starter and dominance as a reliever. Why would you put somebody capable of playing a significant role on the ML roster in AAA?

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Dec 28, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions  

I totally agree.

Chad Jennings made a good point about why Hughes should go in the rotation first: every season he goes pitching less than 100 innings, the harder it probably becomes for him to make that jump.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 28, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I saw that from Jennings

It’s definitely going to be a test for Girardi and the brass to do this right. If Hughes has a halfway decent stint in the rotation, there’s going to be tremendous pressure to make Joba into the heir apparent to Mo. Which at this point seems to be a waste of a potentially ace starter.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Dec 28, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

He’ll turn 24 in June, so Baseball-Reference considers it his age 24 season. I should have been more specific.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 28, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

put joba as 5th starter

and hughes in the bulpen. if that doesn’t work then switch roles after the first have of the season.

by vencervelliven on Dec 28, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

Joba will start

And until he falters, Hughes will remain in the pen. I’d like Joba to be a reliever, period, and let Hughes mature as a starter, letting him take some lumps along the way. All pitchers go through a “growing period” (check out Greg Maddux, Ryan, even Koufax) but the Yankees seem unwilling to let their pitchers go through this…How else are they gonna learn?

by david d on Dec 28, 2009 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

Spring Training

Give them spring training to figure out what to do. Who knows, Joba might stink it up again and Hughes could turn into a stud, you never know what is going to happen so assuming the 5th spot should go to one or the other right now is quite premature. Idealy Hughes has 4 solid + pitches (or at least 3) with his 4 seam & 2 seam fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup. Joba has fastball, slider for + pitches and the rest are lackluster.

by RuBiCaNT on Dec 28, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions  

what about pettite

any thought being given to giving pettite a lighter workload in the first couple of months of the season. i know he stayed healthy last year but if anyone gets fatigued, isnt it likely to be him?

by Balistes on Dec 28, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

I’d rather have Andy skip a start or two if fatigue sets in and have him pitching at 100% or close to it.

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 28, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Nicely thought out

I don’t think either one of them will be down in AAA for the first month as the starting five will have shorter outings in April.

by Scooby Snacks on Dec 28, 2009 7:24 PM EST reply actions  

They should not use a 6-man rotation

that shouldn’t, and probably won’t happen. A six man rotation would limit the starts for CC, Burnett, Javy, and Pettitte, first of all. I would want them going as often as possible. A six man rotation for any stretch of the season will give them less starts, and they don’t want that. Second, it weakens the bullpen, if Joba and Hughes are both in the rotation. With one of them in the pen the whole year and a 5 man rotation, it strengthens the bullpen as well.

Using a 6 man rotation, in my mind, even if it is for a limited period of time, would make the rotation and bullpen weaker. That shouldn’t be considered. However, I like having the problem of having more pitchers than spots open. I’d like to see them resign Wang too. That would give them CC, Burnett, Vasquez, Pettitte, Joba, Hughes, Gaudin, Mitre, Wang, Aceves? You can never have too much pitching, right?

Whatever happens, stay away from a 6 man rotation.

by nyyrocks29 on Dec 28, 2009 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

“Presumably, he would have been allowed to go farther if he had been effective.”

Joba began to loose effectiveness from the moment the “dumbs” from the front office and Joe G. decided to cut short Joba’s games, they opted to rest him and turn him in a souless pitcher with no clear objective as the season finished.

If they plan to do the same to Hughes if he wins the 5th spot, then we can expect for Phil to have a bad sept. and oct. thanks to those not-so-wise people making those decisions… LET THEM PITCH!!! not for nothing nowadays pitchers can’t go the long route and pitch gems, trying to extend the useful life of pitchers that won’t be with the team in 4-5 years, they even took good care of Chien-Ming’s career only to dump him because he injuried his leg…

by Mikhel on Dec 29, 2009 7:23 AM EST reply actions  

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