Battle Royale: Johnson & Granderson vs. Matsui & Damon
The Yankee offseason so far has begged one obvious question: which is the better duo - Matsui and Damon, or Johnson and Granderson?
To find that out, we need to divorce ourselves from emotional attachments to Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui (assuming Damon does not return). They were very good players while in the Bronx, and helped end a decade-long title drought, but to continue to be a perennial powerhouse, emotions can't get in the way of sound baseball and business decisions. It's the job of GMs to look to the future, not the past.
2009 saw Matsui and Damon post impressive numbers: .274/.367/.509 and .282/.365/.489 respectively.
Johnson and Granderson put up lines of .291/.426/.405 and .249/.327/.453 respectively.
At first glance, it looks like this will mean a drop in production. But let's dig a bit deeper.
M & D played in the new Yankee Stadium, also known as the most homer-friendly park in baseball (26% more longballs than the average park). The newcomers, J & G, played in gigantic parks: Comerica Park, Nationals Park and Dolphin Stadium, all of which are known as pitchers havens. We can reasonably assume M & D's power numbers will drop, only because they're moving to less 'left-friendly' ballparks. Conversely, J & G's power numbers should see an increase hitting toward the famous 'short porch.'
Johnny Damon is coming off one of his best offensive seasons, but the Yankees should be wary of players (1) in contract seasons having career years, and (2) having career years at 35. We can naturally expect Damon to regress. On the other side, Curtis Granderson will be 29, coming off an unusually down-year. 2007 was a career best, 2009 was (nearly) a career worst: we can naturally expect something in between (like 2008: .280/.365/.494, nearly identical to Damon's 2009, only Grandy did it in a pitcher's park).
Matsui is less unlikely to repeat his year, which was closer to his 'norm' than Damon's was. However, Nick Johnson's ridiculous .426 OBP is immensely valuable. I expect both Matsui's SLG and Johnson's OBP to decrease, only because they're rather out of line with their career averages. But I do expect Johnson's SLG to increase, what with the short porch in rightfield and the protection of Tex and A-Rod - he should see more hittable pitches and fewer walks.
Then there's defense, where J & D have, and should, easily surpass the aging duo of M & D. Matsui didn't play one inning in the field this year. It was the condition of his knees, not his salary, that gaves the Yankees pause. The Angels promised to give Matsui a chance to play the field at least once or twice a week. That's something the Yankees could not do. Damon played a passable leftfield, but every other outfielder on the team could play a better leftfield (yes, even Swisher), and are a minimum of seven years younger.
Granderson is a natural centerfielder, and wherever he plays he'll provide average to excellent defense. He'll also be playing in a significantly smaller centerfield than he's used to. Johnson is a solid first-baseman and will fill in admirably when Tex needs a day off. If Tex is going to last another seven years (while still bringing quality production), he'll need consistent rest.
Matsui was almost worthless on defense. Joe Girardi didn't even play him during the World Series - that's how little confidence he had in Matsui's ability to play the field. Damon is a mediocre leftfielder at best; a fulltime DH at worst.
Then there's health. Johnson has suffered from countless injuries in his career. He's played more than 130 games just three times in eight years. What will hopefully keep him healthy is a fulltime DH role. He's been in the NL the last five seasons, so perhaps not having to dive for grounders more than once a week will keep him healthy and productive all year. Conversely, can you really see Hideki Matsui playing the outfield several times a week? If he does, it'll only increase his chances of injury. Johnson and Matsui are pretty much even on the 'injury risk' scale: Johnson is incredibly susceptible to 'freak' injuries, and Matsui has chronically aching knees. Which is worse?
Damon and Granderson are also roughly equal in terms of health. There are no worries about Grandy, who's averaged 154 games over the last four seasons, or Damon, who's averaged 144 games over the same span. And do I need to mention that J & G are six years younger than their counterparts?
In terms of WAR, which takes into account all aspects of a player's game (offense, baserunning, defense, position, playing time), M & D were worth 4.8 WAR/season over the last three years. J & G were worth 5.9 WAR/season, and that's after giving Nick Johnson a zero for 2007 when he didn't play one game. So even if he stays just moderately healthy, it should be a net gain in wins.
Then there's cost. J & G will make $11 million combined next year (plus potential incentives for Johnson). M & D will probably make about $15 million ($6.5 million for Matsui, probably about $9 million for Damon). That saved money can be spent on another starter (Sheets, Duchscherer, Bedard), which is more important, at this point, than another hitter. Also, not having to commit several years to Damon allows that money to be spent on the amazing free agent class of 2011 (Mauer, Lee, Beckett, Webb, Crawford,) and bring back fan-favorites Jeter and Rivera.
For a cost conscious club, which the Yankees are looking more like everyday, the recent moves make for a more efficient team going forward. Younger, cheaper, and at least as productive.
(With all that said, I do believe, for the record, that Cashman was surprised at how fast Matsui got snatched up. He didn't see much of a market for 36-year-old fulltime DHs. When Matsui signed with Anaheim, Cash had to act quickly or all the good hitters would be gone. There weren't many other options, but Nick Johnson was the best fit for the Yankees. I'm very happy he's with us and not against us (as in, on the Red Sox).
Regarding Damon, I believe part of the reason Cash traded for Granderson was (1) to get a good, young centerfielder allowing for the departure of Damon, and (2) to put pressure on Damon/Boras to accept a short-term deal. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough, and it took negotiating with Nick Johnson to get them to cave, only by that time it was too late.)
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In Cash we trust
He is VERY good at this.
Damon and Boras called his bluff and lost. Mats called it and landed on his feet but Cash quickly went to Plan B.
Add a good second tier pitcher and this is a successful off season
thats what I've been saying. Cash seems to know what he is doing
Blueshirt Banter: Covering the New York Rangers the only NHL team with three home arenas.
by Joe Fortunato on Dec 20, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
I don't buy idea that Cash "had to snatch up Johnson quickly"
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad we got him, but in reality there is once again a big surplus of hitters on the market this year. Whether they are strictly DH-only guys (Thome, Matsui) or guys who could play the field with below average defense (Dye, Garret Anderson), or even Mark Derosa, who can play just about any position save catcher. I do give Cash credit for snatching up the highest OBP on the market and a guy who can spell one of our regulars on occasion, but the notion that he “had to act quickly or all the good hitters would be gone” is quite exaggerated.
Johnson is relatively cheap
and fits the Yankees style of hitting to a T.
Yea, he’s injury prone in the past…so’s AJ Burnett.
He’s a lot younger than anyone on the market who can do what he does.
You can expect a .400 OBP from him. There’s not many of those guys in all of MLB..and now the Yankees have 2 of them to lead off the game (also..one’s batting 4th, and the guy batting 3rd gets on a lot too).
I doubt Johnson would be on the market much longer…he’d be snatched up well before Damon.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 20, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
cash is doing a "boras"
i believe imo, cash is trying to setup the table. imo nick johnson is just a mirage to cover up the true motives on cash. what they want to do is play the showhand card with damon. since the tone is set with the other players, mostly OF positions in the game. the only team remotely that can come close to getting damon according to year/amount arent much. probably only the yankees and or 1, 2 other teams. so the yankees can still sign damon. and then put johnson up as trade bait to get some other players, pitchers. cause no matter how you put it, i would take the overall production from damon than just the obp that nick johnson can give. cause we need an all around player, and damon is much closer to than than johnson will ever be. no offense but we dont need another downgraded nick swisher who can only supply us with obp. i believe at the end, damon will be signed for 8-9m per year for 2 years. bronx is the best place for damon, im pretty sure he knows it too.
That would be silly
If you believe the reports, Johnson took less money to come to the Yanks. I don’t see Cashman turning around and dealing him. That would break a lot of trust. The only thing Damon offers that Johnson doesn’t is speed. But it is not like Damon stole 40 bases last year either.
I’d much rather have what Johnson brings in terms of OBP, batting average and what I expect to be renewed power than what Damon offers, especially at that price.
Take the $8-9M and go after Sheets. We need another starter.
Just speed?
He also brings a higher average, more power, and more RBI. Also a clutch bat that is proven in NY. And speed is pretty important too. You think Nick Johnson is gonna score from first on an extra base hit from Teixeira or A-Rod? That is something that I could see constantly happening all year. 2 outs, Nick Johnson on first, A-Rod doubles to the right center field cap, but Johnson has to stop at third because he’s as slow as Jose Molina, and then whoever is batting fifth can’t get him in (which, if it is Cano, would be expected), and they don’t score. Speed is VERY important at the top of the order in my mind.
Damon is better than Nick Johnson. I think that Cashman gave up on Johnny too quickly and went right to Johnson when he didn’t need to or have to. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather have Damon hitting second.
What if I told you
that OBP best correlates with run production? Here’s an exercise for a snowy day: (1) list all 30 teams from most runs scored to least, (2) list all 30 teams from greatest average OBP to least, and (3) eyeball those two lists.
by tombradylikesdudes on Dec 20, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Not feelin it
World Champions Matsui and now (looks like) Damon gone. And we have Grandy (??) and Nick “Don’t call me Pavano” Johnson as replacements?
I know Cash’s tailor. He sez Cash’s may have short sleeves - but he’s got something up ’em. I hope so - because if this is the end… gulp.
The Yankees are alread a better team then they were last year at the beginning of the season
Full year of A-Rod, A-Rod protecting Tex that first month+, no Wang insta-wins, no Joba Rules, a bullpen that’s not the fail it was in April, and many other things.
Most fans are happy to see their team win a couple WS in their lifetime, I’m 20 and already seen 6, and what do we want? More. (Preferably Sheets and Holliday)
Next year is going to be full of new things; new players we want to trade, another Yankee we can hate, more calls to fire Girardi and/or Cashman, and more Mo pitching to Cervelli to help convert other faiths, but also more winning.
Also
Hopefully we can see some of this
by Monotonousblob on Dec 21, 2009 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
In the video above, is he playing a little deep?
It will drive me insane if he plays that deep alot. Maybe I’m not being fair, or know the situation, but how many singles will he give up that should be outs?!?
I wish we could continue to just show up and play for no reason. No umpires, no scorers. Just show up and have fun.
-- Alex Rodriguez

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