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Thinking About Matt Capps

Aside from having the most assonant name on the free agent market, Matt Capps is one of the most attractive relievers available.

He's so sexy that his about half the teams in baseball want him to join their squad.

This might be surprising because Capps posted a 5.80 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP, 12.1 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9.  You're thinking, maybe he's that drunk sort of sexy.

Star-divide

But there's one thing I've learned about baseball, and based on their roster construction, I think the Yanks have learned it too: don't expect anything out of relievers.  Don't expect them to be good, don't expect them to be bad.  Unless it's Mo Rivera, you simply never know what you're going to get.

Part of this is statistical.  Sample size is important in evaluations, and evaluating relievers year to year depends on a tiny sample size.   Matt Capps threw 54 innings last season, 53 the season before.  CC Sabathia threw 44 innings last May.

Another related piece is dumb luck.  "The line drives are caught, the squibbles go for base hits. It's an unfair game."  In a small sample size identical performance can produce disparate results.  I already gave you Capps' numbers from 2009.  Here are the numbers that stayed relatively the same: 7.6 K/9 (career 6.9), LD% 18.7 (career 20.2), GB/FB 1.00 (career 0.82).  Matt Capps posted a .370 BABIP, up 70 points from his career average. For all these reasons, and no doubt more, the Yankees (and half the teams in MLB think Capps will return to being the guy who posted a 1.06 WHIP with 6.7 K/9 in his first 3 full seasons.

The Yanks have a slew of relievers and potential relievers who will do what they have done the last two season, mix and match the middle innings to ferry the ball to the great Rivera.  Mark Melancon, Damaso Marte, Houdini Robertson, Aces Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin, Nova, Kontos, Jonny Albaledejo, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Edwar Ramirez and Hector Noesi are all pretty much certain to see some time on the Yanks' roster.  I picked Zach McAllister as the Yanks' top prospect because I think this will be his year somehow, someway, and I still think Alan Horne could make a charge.  Plus there's always Joba and Phil should the Yanks sign another starter.

Matt Capps will make a decision soon about where he wants to play, and the Yankees will be on the list.  They will be on because it is to Matt Capps' financial benefit for the Yankees to be involved.  I will try my best not to pay attention, try not to think about what a valuable addition Matt Capps would be to our bullpen.  He's probably only putting the Yankees on his list to drive up his price for whomever he will eventually sign with.  The free agent dollars are in closers and that's the guy he should want to be if he's interested in securing his family's financial security through the next generation; being part of the Bridge to Mo should be the farthest thing from his mind.

But if he signs with the Yankees, expect the most exultant jscape post in a while.

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Staying the Course

Dec 2009 by jscape2000 - 77 comments

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he would be a nice fit

by widowmaker6340 on Dec 18, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

I dunno what the cost is...

but its too much.

Marte and MO should be the only big $$ guys in the pen (and only cuz we have to pay Marte…)

The rest should be whoever was in there last year, aside from Coke, Joba and/or Hughes (tho Joba AND Hughes..if the Yanks are lucky, will NOT be in the pen).

"It ain't over till its over"---

3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.

"I just saw Avatar, and Sean Avery was hands down the best character!"

by FreeBradshaw on Dec 18, 2009 7:56 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, I can't think of even one good reason to add to the bullpen

It doesn’t matter who it is or if he’s good or great or cheap. There are more than enough ML ready arms to fill both NY and SWB rosters. The payroll is already too high. I’d rather take the money and burn it. At least you’d have a nice fire to watcch.

by Peter Lacock on Dec 18, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I noticed you listed Gaudin and Mitre as options

Did the Yankees tender them contracts? I never saw anything about them one way or another but i could have missed something

by RicketyCricket on Dec 18, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions  

Correct

I’m an idiot though and listed Kontos, even though I just read his scouting report on Pending Pinstripes and so his Tommy John surgery is fresh in my mind.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 19, 2009 2:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Knotos could help Scranton next year

He’s a wildcard along with Whelan, Horne, Humberto and JB Cox. You don’t really know what you’ll get from them or in the case of Cox, if he’ll even be around. Every year in every organization at every level there are guys that disaapoint and guys that surprise.

by Peter Lacock on Dec 19, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

haha "drunk sort of sexy"

It sounds like true love between you and Matt Capps! I hear violin music and smell candles burning.

by 209209 on Dec 19, 2009 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

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