The Yankees, Nick Johnson and Jim Thome
by jscape2000 on Dec 17, 2009 1:00 PM EST
in Analysis
60 comments
I started having this thought even before rumors surfaced of the Yankees' interest in Nick Johnson.
If Johnny Damon won't come back on the Yanks' terms (and I'm of the belief that Damon won't beat a $20/2Y offer), there are a slew of free agent options who would be available on 1 year deals. Two of the most intriguing pure-DH options are Jim Thome and Nick Johnson.
Thome 2007-2009: 1572 PA .256/.380/.517
Johnson 2007-2009: 721 PA .277/.424/.410
[Update at 1:58 p.m.: Discussions with Johnson are 'hot']
There are four parts of the story here: staying healthy, making contact, working the count and driving the ball.
Clearly, Jim Thome has been better at staying healthy. Will he continue to be? While Thome hasn't been available 150+ games in 6 seasons, he's played in less than 130 since 2003 until his trade to the NL this past season. On the other hand, Johnson had hand problems when he was with the Yankees, a back problem with the Expos/Nationals, a broken cheekbone on a grounder, a broken leg after a collision on a pop-up, and a torn ligament in his wrist. Two interesting/ encouraging things about Johnson: 1) he's a year removed from his wrist injury, so he might show more power than his .410 SLG suggests; 2) only the wrist injuries are re-occurring (and separated by many seasons), and two of the injuries that have cost him the most time are freak injuries.
If they stayed equally healthy, what's the value of Johnson's extra .021 batting average? Let's imagine the Yanks' DH gets to play 130 games, with the rest going to Posada, Arod, Jeter, Tex and Swisher. That's roughly 500 PA- 128 hits for Thome, 139 hits for Johnson. While I acknowledge that a hit is better than a walk (walks only drive in runs when the bases are loaded), those 11 extra hits over a season are less than an extra hit every other week.
On the other hand, Thome would get on base 190 times. Johnson would get on 212 times. That's 11 extra hits, plus another 11 walks (which are almost, if not quite, as good as a single). At the risk of sounding too much like Crash Davis, an extra hit a week is the difference between an All-Star and a scrub.
But slugging is Thome's advantage, and in a big way. Sticking with our 500 PA assumption, Thome is going to tally 258 total bases (his best season by that measure since 2004) and Johnson will wind up at 205 total bases. Roughly, that's a 35 HR, 25 doubles, and 70 singles season from Thome, compared to a 10 HR, 25 double, and 115 singles for Johnson.
Johnson is the ideal #2 hitter, Thome would look brilliant at #5. Who would you rather have? Let me hear your thoughts, and I'll leave mine in the comments at the end of the day.
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Between the 2...
I don’t really care…but ONE of them I think at this point, since MATS is gone, is a must.
Johnson can hit any handed pitcher, Thome is not so good against lefties (not bad tho…)
Thome has more power…but that may be diminishing…and playing 82 games at the stadium will help Nick, no doubt about that (it would help Thome to tho…)
Both are “professional” hitters, I don’t think you can go wrong with either.
It depends on who else they get…cuz sure as hell Thome or Johnson is NOT the only move left to be made.
If they get Damon…I say Thome.
If they get Holliday/Bay…I say Johnson.
…my preference is Holliday/Bay + Nick Johnson BTW.
More power, less age, more getting on base…tho….more money? Maybe, but we’re the fkn Yankees.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
Yup. Bay and Nick
would be the best
Holliday too expensive and more importantly too long term.
Damon too old AND too expensive.
But a very thought provoking post jscape. Nice research.
If they get any one of those five (Thome, Johnson, Bay, Holliday, Damon)
They won’t go after the others.
And I’d rather have Johnson or Damon, assuming we won’t pony up 7 years for Holliday. We’re trying to find a 2-hole hitter who can deal with Lefties. Which player does that sound most like?
dont like it..
I really think the Johnson deal will be a mistake..is injuries are such a huge risk factor. I don’t understand why he has to be such a serious consideration at this point. If they are letting damon walk, and it sure seems so, then at least sign someone who will make the team better.
@b$
So signing a guy who has a lfetime obp of over .400 wont make the team better?
A guy who will legitimately be on base 2x a game for Tex and Arod doesnt make the team better?
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 17, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
sometimes I don't understand what people look at...
Is it injuries? Didn’t stop AJ Burnett from inking a long term deal…and if ya don’t think he helped the Yanks…I dunno what to say.
Johnson gets on base….MORE than Johnny Damon.
He’s not gonna cost that much either.
As a DH..and considering his non-in the field injuries are very freak injuries…I’d say its a small risk…MUCH SMALLER than AJ Burnett…that’s for sure.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Johnson Gets on Base
But Damon runs better now than Nick did in his early 20’s. And Nick seems to think he’s fast. Honestly, I’ve seen him try to steal bases several times. Don’t think I’ve ever seen him actually do it, though.
But another $.02 worth
Is that while NJ can only play 1b, he’s a plus fielder there when Tex needs a day or two off.
and Jeter better get on his exercise bike...
Johnson is a pretty good RBI guy.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
the idea of Thome + that right field porch
is indeed enticing….but i like the idea of johnson at the #2 spot
i’m warming up to the idea of holliday (but doubt it will happen), and am ready to let damon walk. Not a big fan of Bay.
If these two
are the only ones available, I’d pass, which makes signing Damon a must or bring up Miranda, which is probably not a great option either. Gotta sign Damon…
very interesting
choices. Thome would fit that 5-hole well, NJ would slide perfectly into the 2-hole. which is more pressing?
honestly, i think the 2-hole is more important. if NJ is getting on base 40% of the time, pitchers will have to pitch to Tex and Arod.
Posada is a fine #5 hitter – comparable to Thome, but NJ is a significant upgrade over Granderson in the 2-hole. Grandy just doesn’t get on base that well. Grandy actually seems more of a #5 hitter: Ks, HRs, decent OBP. NJ has lower Ks, lower HRs, but very high OBP. and can play a good 1B, at least better than Thome.
plus, and i’m too lazy to look up evidence for this, but it seems Thome can be ‘pitched to’ easier than NJ. a good pitcher that locates his pitches will get Thome out. NJ seems to hit good pitchers better (but i could be wrong).
Throwing some other names in here
How about Jermaine Dye or Vlad Guerrero? I know they’re RH hitters, but aren’t they better than Johnson or Thome? Vlad can’t play OF & Dye is terrible at defense, but they could work…
For LH, how about Hank Blalock? He’s a Boras client which is bad, but younger than Johnson or Thome.
What about Nady? He’s been on the Yanks before, but again, a Boras client.
I’m not sure these are better options, but they’re options.
Outside the box
Barry Bonds? Too bad he’s been out of baseball for too long.
Bonds officially retired I think
No one wants the media headache..or the headache he is himself.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
wow imagine the media circus
no thanks . .
no, no, and hell no
to Dye, Guerrero and Blalock.
..well, Dye’s not bad, I wouldn’t mind him (but DEFINITELY not ahead of Johnson or Thome)
Guerrero is free swinger..No good for the Yanks…and Blalock? For real?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think Blalock would be a great guy to have off the bench, but I imagine he’ll get offers that mean more playing time elsewhere.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
My beef with the Nick Johnson thing...
Is that if we sign him he’s going to do exactly what Matsui would have been doing – DH only. We have the best defensive 1st baseman in the game so I can’t see him getting much time there. The money won’t even be considerably less. Garrett Atkins just signed for 4.5 mil and he stinks, so I can’t see Nick getting less than 5-6 mil for a year. The point is if we’re interested in Nick Johnson why couldn’t we have just kept Matsui?
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Dec 17, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
its more to it than just 'why not sign Mats'
How much more of an injury risk is Matsui than Johnson? Maybe the Angels just beat them to the punch?
Johnson is younger and all in all, even for the same price…has more potential this season.
I wanted Matsui back of course…but there’s always the reality that we got all there is to get out of Matsui in 2009. He hasn’t shown signs of breaking down…but he could at any second.
I guess we’ll see what the deal is if/when Johnson signs.
He has a lot more left in the tank than Matsui, so maybe they wanted a longer term solution?
Johnson is younger and can do what Mats did.
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
How the hell do you know
They got all there is to get out of Matsui in 09? Sure gonna suck to see him hit 90+ Rbis and 25+ Hrs for the Angels for 6 MILLION DOLLARS. Almost as good as Abreu for 5.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Dec 17, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
I don't...
it was more a maybe thing…
So…how the hell do you know he’s getting 25HR and 90RBI?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
its not...
yet..are you assuming that the Yankees weren’t lucky that Matsui didn’t miss any time last year?
Guy has 2 bad knees. He can barely walk.
I wanted Mats back too….yet…is it more reasonable to think a younger dude like Johnson can have a good year or someone like Matsui?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 17, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Matsui is gone!
He no longer matters. Get over it already.
http://newyorksportsjerk.blogspot.com/
by New York Sports Jerk on Dec 17, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I wish I could say the same for you
But like a bad case of genital warts you are here to stay :)
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Dec 17, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Outfielder for the DH spot
It is an either/or thing in that Nick Johnson/Matsui would fill the same positional role for the Yankees. I don’t disagree totally with the logic behind letting Matsui go but then lets actually follow that logic.
If we sign a DH, it makes more sense for it to be someone who can play LF. Damon is ideal but if he’s not willing to play ball contract wise then you move on. That way, if we want Posada to DH one day, instead of having Cervilli AND Gar-brera in the lineup, Cervelli replaces Gar-Brera and the regular DH moves out to LF. Having the DH be an outfielder just gives us more flexibility.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Dec 17, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
agree 100%
who would you bet on being healthy this year, my money is on godzilla
by yankeechaser on Dec 18, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions
really?
the guy with 2 knees ready to shatter vs. the guy with bad injury luck?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
by FreeBradshaw on Dec 18, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Well that takes care of those guys haha
How about Nady though? I mean his arm won’t be good enough for a RF anymore since surgery & he’s been w/the Yanks before. He’s not as good as Bay, but his contract will prolly be nicer on the wallet.
Or even Carlos Delgado
I forgot he was a FA too.
My thoughts
A few of things.
First, hitting breakdowns are a little off. OBP is based on PA while BA and SLG are based on AB. To get the number of AB for each you have to subtract the walks from the totals. If you use the 3 year averages above with 500 PA, the lines come to, (there’s rounding involved in all numbers)
Thome: 415 AB, 105 H, 85 BB, 500 PA 215 Total Bases, 55 1B, 20 2B, 30 HR
Johnson: 400 AB, 110 H, 100 BB, 500 PA 165 Total Bases, 80 1B, 20 2B, 10 HR
From those numbers I’d likely prefer Thome. But that brings be to the second thing.
Second, I don’t think 3 year averages are good projections for this pair. Thome’s 8 years older than Johnson. At 39, Thome’s definitely on the decline while Johnson, at 31 is just starting the slide. While age won’t matter too much if we only sign 1 year deals, Johnson’s much more likely to match his numbers while Thome is more likely to miss them.
Fangraphs, for example, presents projections for the two players at around:
Thome: .250/.380/.490
Johnson: .280/.420/.440
Given these numbers I’d lean towards Johnson. That extra OBP really would make up for the dip in SLG. But then, as you say, health is a big part of the issue (Third thing). Johnson seems to be made of glass while Thome has been solid. I’d guess that as a permanent DH, they’d both fare pretty well though. Johnson would avoid collisions with people or balls and the ancient Thome’s back would be kept safe too.
If the organization had to choose between one or the other I wouldn’t begrudge either choice. If it was up to me though? I’d go with Johnson primarily because he could play first in a pinch but especially if we went more than one year.
Thanks for the help on the numbers- I never thought about AB vs PA.
Like you, I like Thome more as a player, but in the context of our lineup, Nick Johnson is hard to pass on to hit second.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
matsui wanted a deal ASAP, knowing
that the yankees might not bring him back. for the yankees lf/dh situation, damon was always plan A because he can play the field. plan B is signing a dh. since plan B involves waiting out damon/boras, matsui coulld have been left without a chair in the proverbial game of free agent musical chairs.
by tombradylikesdudes on Dec 17, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention he's getting paid to be a full-time DH.
Which would most likely not be the case if he signed back with the Yanks.
Yankees all day.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
"If you're not doing it right, you're doing it wrong. And there's no in between." ~Mark "Lunch" McKenzie
sign vlad and trade him to the angels for matsui! case closed!!
there is no legitimate reason to sign johnson. he is a very marginal, oft injured player. thome is intriguing because short porch in right means he would probably hit a dozen routine flyball homeruns if he played 60+ of the home games. because of texiera, this position is basically fulltime dh or bench, so the nobrainer answer has to be thome. my first option is better!!
'07-'09 trip slash: .276/.359/.496
by tombradylikesdudes on Dec 17, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
good catch.
though, that hurts my point so i didn’t ; )
by tombradylikesdudes on Dec 17, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
baseballreference.com does it for you automatically when you click the rows.
I love that site.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
You could make the argument
that Johnson’s home-run totals would go up to about at least 20 and he’d get 30 doubles easy if he played here, and you couple that with the fact he does not strike out as much as Thome, walks quite a bit, hits lefties well, and is actually a good-enough first baseman that if they decided to DH Teixiera for health reasons or to give him day off in the field they’d be losing almost nothing on defense. Contrarily Thome can’t play first anymore, strikes out a lot and does not hit lefties well anymore. We can assume that at age 39 Thome has lost some bat speed and has to cheat on the fastball, and that’s somthing we can’t say about Johnson.
Johnson
Nick is younger and hits equally well against right and left handers. Not to mention that he is another home grown Yankee.
On the other hand Thome is a probable hall of famer but he really can’t hit lefties.
i vote for Nick.
Johnson
and then sign a super sub (Derosa or Hairston) to play the field when you want to give A-Rod or Jeter the DH spot or give Melky the day off. Thome is not bad either but Johnson is younger and I love the OBP.
Between the two?
Thome. I love the idea of him hitting in that #5 hole, w/ that short porch. I never really liked Nick Johnson. He can’t stay healthy, and his production has never been all that impressive in my mind. He can’t run. He can hit singles. He doesn’t have that much pop. I’d rather have Thome because Thome, while he can’t run either, at least has home run power. Johnson doesn’t seem all that good in any spot, and I’d rather not sign him.
I’d prefer Damon over either of those two, and I’m still hoping he comes to his senses and returns.
Thome or Johnson
I would take Thome as a number 5 hitter in the Yankee lineup. He looks tougher and more menacing to the opposing pitchers no matter what the statistics say. We can find another number 2 hitter if Damon leaves.
Nick Johnson or Jim Thome
Either one would be an access but perfer JimThome. If you won’t a power hitter at #5 Jim Thome is the man. We have our lead off hitters in Grandson and Jeter.
Joe C. Smith Jr.
Nick
I would worry about having two key pieces to the line up bat not great—to poorly against lefties (Granderson and Thome). Also while I agree that YS seems to be made for Thome didnt the yanks have like 7 guys have 20+ homers last year? It seems to me like I would like to have a guy on base close to half the time when they hit them.
Seems its Nick Johnson.
Welcome back Nick! We hardly knew ye before!
Bring us #28 why don’t ya?
"It ain't over till its over"---
3rd down + Steve Smith = 1st Down.
I don't understand
Why $5.5 for Johnson when Matsui would have at most cost $1m more and hit 20 homeruns?
Because
Johnson is projected to be a better hitter overall. Though he’ll have .040 points lower SLG, he’ll give you .050 points more in OBP. In terms of production, that difference is about 6 runs in Johnson’s favor over a season. That’s not including that Nick can contribute in the field and, despite his record of breaking, may be less of an injury risk at DH. He’s a better choice even before the contract.
While you may not believe it, the average projection actually has Johnson hitting better than Damon next year.
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