Options for the 2010 rotation

The early buzz a few days into the hot stove season is that John Lackey is there for the Yankees’ taking, if they want him.  And after playing most of the second half of the season with only three dependable starting pitchers, why wouldn’t they?  Lackey's career stats are impressive – a career ERA+ of 117 to go along with an average of 6.4 IP/start, plus a reputation for being a big-game pitcher. 

If there is a problem, though, it’s that Lackey is relatively old, and will likely demand (and get) something in the ballpark of AJ Burnett’s 5 year/$82.5 million contract.  To make matters worse, if the Yankees do sign him, they will have committed $56 million for 2013 to three pitchers whose average age will be 35 when that season begins.  Committing lots of money to older players (especially 31 year-old pitchers who’ve been injured each of the last two years) is not typically a recipe for success. 

The real key for the Yankees is trying to flex their huge financial muscles in the short term without signing too many big contracts that could hamstring them in the long term. With 40% of their starting rotation already filled with dependable veteran arms, this seems to be the right strategy this winter.  With that said, here is what I think the Yankees can do to set themselves up for success in 2010 without tying down too many roster spots or too much money for 2011 and beyond.

Re-sign Andy Pettitte – Pettitte is the exact type of player a large-market team can afford to overpay in the short term.  It helps that he’s taking it year to year anyway at this stage of his career, and isn’t likely to play for any other team.  He has adjusted well as he’s aged, bookending the 2000s with statistically comparable seasons despite ten years of wear and tear on his arm to go along with the typical loss of velocity pitchers endure as they reach their late 30s.  38-year old pitchers are notoriously difficult to project, but he seems as good a bet as any to post a better-than-average ERA along with 30 starts and 180 innings in 2010.  Bringing Pettitte back for another season in the Bronx should be the Yankees primary offseason priority

Sort out the youngsters – Both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes should see the majority of their innings from the starting rotation next year.  Joba pitched 163 2/3 innings this year, so the innings cap and strict pitch limits are likely going to be more a theory than a practice in 2010.  Hopefully a year of development coupled with the longer leash will allow him to sort out his issues, known by many of us as difference between "pitching" and throwing". His 2009 season my serve to lower expectations going forward, but any time you can get a roughly league-average performance from a 23 year old starting pitcher who’s not yet eligible for arbitration, you’re happy (New York media hype notwithstanding).  If he can reduce his walk rate and/or increase his strikeout rate, he still projects as a solid major league pitcher.

Hopefully, the shortcomings of the 2009 version of the “Joba rules” will help the Yankees brass develop a better way to handle Hughes in 2010.  Whether they begin the season with him in the bullpen, or give him an extended All-Star break, the Yankees should be able to get this one right. Hughes highest innings total in the minors was 146, nearly double Joba’s, and as he approaches his mid-20s (he’ll turn 24 in June 2010), the stress/workload risks do begin to subside.

Offer Arbitration to both Chad Gaudin and Chien-Ming Wang – Presumably, Wang will have to settle for the maximum pay decrease (20%) and sign for $4 million in 2010, while Gaudin can probably expect a raise from his $2 million in 2009.  Either way, these are the types of financial moves the Yankees can and should be making to improve their rotation depth.  It’s unlikely that Wang would make it back before mid-season, but considering how good he was before he got hurt (ERA+ of 120 in his last two injury-free seasons), $4 million is a small gamble to take on the chances that he can give you 70-80 good innings after the All-Star break. 

Chad Gaudin, on the other hand, is nothing special, simply a slightly below-average innings eater in the vein of Jon Garland, Braden Looper, and Kyle Lohse.  Yet for $2.5 million (or $2.7 or whatever) on a one-year deal, you gladly take it.  Gaudin can be a 5th starter or a long man out of the bullpen, and can be easily jettisoned if things don’t pan out. 

The upside is that these two can give the Yankees 200 innings of above average baseball in 2010, and while the downside is probably a few dozen innings of horrendous baseball, for $7 million and no commitment beyond 2010, it’s a risk the Yankees can afford to take

Watch the Minors – Namely, keep your eye on Ian Kennedy.  Yes, he missed the majority of 2009 with an injury, and yes, he has pitched terribly in limited major league action thus far, but we’re still talking about a guy who hasn’t yet turned 24 and has posted pretty solid peripheral stats and an ERA under 2.00 through nearly 250 minor league innings (most of them in AA or AAA).  Nobody’s forecasting him to be an ace, but 59 2/3 MLB innings aren’t enough to convince me that he can’t still be a serviceable (and cheap) 4th or 5th starter. 

Take a risk – If all else fails, the Yankees are in the unique position to make a high-risk, high reward signing on the free agent market with somebody who’s looking to bounce back on a one-year contract.  They can offer a higher base salary, better incentives, or guarantee a second year when other teams are unwilling, and if the free agent market is as slow as it was last winter, guys like Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and maybe even Rich Harden could be spending a lot of time waiting by their phones; if two or three of them are still available in late January, would the Yankees be crazy to make identical one-year offers and see who bites first?

This is how I would approach the offseason if I were Brian Cashman.  Lackey is obviously a good pitcher, but when you factor in the contract demands, he’s not enough of an upgrade over their other options to justify spending the money and committing the years.  Without him, there’s no reason the Yankees should enter 2010 with fewer than seven or eight viable starting pitchers, and there's no reason to commit any additional money for 2011 and beyond.