A player's game

I always like seeing what BP has to say.  Their authors have done an excellent job with their postseason coverage, combining advanced statistical analysis with in-game strategy, always providing an interesting recap of the game (and a much needed counterpart to the subpar Fox commentary).

I think there are two important points from this article -

The Phillies are still a significant underdog to win this World Series, maybe as high as 7-1

I would have loved to see the Yankees close out the Series last night (I was fortunate enough to be at the game), but it didn't happen.  It's not that shocking, though; this is the World Series, and these are the two best teams, on paper, in all of baseball.  It's foolish to expect the series to be a cakewalk against a team this good. 

Despite last night's loss, the Yankees only need to win one out of the next two games, while playing at home, with a slight starting pitcher advantage in one game (Pettitte vs. Pedro) and a huge advantage in the other (CC vs. Hamels).  Furthermore, after sputtering through parts of the ALDS and ALCS, the Yankees offense has scored 22 runs in the past three games, and most of the lineup has contributed to the attack.

In addition to having the edge in starting pitching and offense, the Yankees may have the most critical edge of all - the bullpen.  With a World Series victory within their grasp, the Yankees will have Mariano Rivera for two innings tomorrow night (or Thursday, if need be), as well as a number of solid, reliable options - Joba, Marte, Aceves, Robertson - to bridge the gap.  The Phillies bullpen, on the other hand, is in disarray.  Their two best relievers (Park and Madson) have been inconsistent through the postseason, and their closer has struggled terribly this season (and has already blown one game in the Series).  In fact, the very question of how (or if) Brad Lidge should be used going forward could very well decide the World Series.  Charlie Manuel's well-intentioned but misplaced faith in his "guy" has clearly backfired.

So let's sit back and relax.  We're up three games to two in the World Series.  Enjoy it.

A.J. Burnett didn't allow six runs in two innings because the Yankees started him on three days' rest. He allowed six runs in two innings because he's A.J. Burnett, and he sometimes shows up with nothing, and the Phillies will kill you if you show up with nothing.

....and the rush to declare starting him (Burnett) a mistake—and to project Burnett's failure onto Andy Pettitte's expected start—is hasty

Deciding whether or not a pitcher should throw on three days' rest in the World Series is quite simple, actually, as the only question that really matters is whether your third starter is better pitching on three days' rest than your fourth starter is on full rest.  When you ask this question about Andy Pettitte and Chad Gaudin, you won't need multiple guesses to get it right.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: there is no evidence, medically, scientifically, or otherwise, to suggest that a veteran pitcher *needs*  four days of rest between starts if he hopes to pitch effectively.  Yes, pitchers typically do receive four days off between starts because most teams decided to use five starting pitchers decades ago, but let's not let the tail wag the dog.  When you do something often enough for a long enough period of time, people begin to believe it to be correct, ideal, and inerrant strategy.  In truth, this is none of those things, it just is, and that's not a good enough reason to reduce your chances of winning a critical World Series game.

Let's also resist the urge to cherry-pick starts, some from as far back as 13 years ago, to make far-reaching judgments about a pitcher's ability or a team's chances of winning.  Do you really think that individual games from 1996, 2003, or 2006 have any bearing on what Andy Pettitte might do tomorrow night?  Because when people say that he has a 4.15 career ERA on short rest, it reminds me of how he also has a 2.62 career ERA pitching in the month of July against AL West teams during Leap Years.

AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Andy Pettitte have combined to throw over 100,000 major league pitches, and the Yankees are asking them to skip one single off day in order to throw just a few more.  If these pitchers or so finicky, tempermental, and frail that they can't handle occasionally pitching on three days' rest, they don't belong in the major leagues.