Thinking Through Halladay to the Red Sox

by jscape2000 on Nov 25, 2009 4:32 PM EST in Analysis Comment 19 comments

You may have heard.

Let's take a look at the common discussions:

Mark Feinstein and Bill Maddon hear that trade demands would start with Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly.

John Sickles rated Kelly a B- before the start of 2009, roughly 11th best in the Boston system. He's an interesting prospect in that the Red Sox have allowed him to work as a shortstop (.222/.302/.340) and a pitcher (95IP, 65H, 16BB).

Buchholz is as much a question mark as Joba and Hughes. He turned 25 in August (a year older than Joba and just shy of two years older than Hughes). He started 16 games, averaged 5.2 innings per start, a 1.38 WHIP with 6.7 K/9.

The Yankees could beat that package almost by mistake (Hughes+Jackson).

Not only would that be the steal of the century, it would be the first time in history a team made a trade before at least having the specter of the Yankees involved.

Cashman hasn't heard what his budget will be yet. Until he does, take no Halladay rumor seriously.

0 recs | Comment 19 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox

Comments

I hope I'm not alone in thinking this

but I think Buchholz is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball. So he threw a perfect game. Great. What else has he done? His career ERA is around 5. And last year, in a supposed “good” year for him, he did well. But what isn’t’ talked about is this. How many playoff teams did he face last season? He was up for 3 months. He faced a grand total of ONE playoff team (Yankees on August 8th). Of the 7 games he won this season, 6 of the wins were against Baltimore and Toronto. He completed 7 innings in a game just TWICE.

To me, when you look at all that, his season last year wasn’t all that impressive. It may be that he just hasn’t reached his full potential yet. But I personally think that our wonderful friend Peter Gammons and the Red Sox have overrated this kid. He’s not THAT good. By the time you’re 25 years old, you should be better than he is right now. OVERRATED!!!!

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 25, 2009 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He's currently a bit overrrated yes,

but with good reason. He has downright nasty stuff, he just struggles with consistency and gets flustered at times. 25 is still pretty young and he still has a high ceiling. He’s like Austin Jackson, very highly rated prospect but lost the luster a bit last year. If Buch can get his mind together he’ll be a formidable pitcher.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 25, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw a ton of Buchholz this year...

and yes, he may be overrated in the sens that Red Sox fans believe he’s the best prospect in the history of prospects (..or since Casey Kelly was created…but that’s another story…).

As far as actually playing baseball, not in Red Sox fan fantasy world…he’s a damn good pitcher.

To be honest, he’s good enough to where if the Red Sox included him in the Halladay deal, yes, the staff gets better….but Buchholz is hell of a pitcher.

25 is just a number. The kid’s legit.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 26, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm the Jays GM Im looking to take a comparable package

from the Yanks instead of the Sox. As long as the return is close to the same I’d rather make the Yankees super strong as opposed to strengthening the Sox considerably and having to deal with the Yankees too.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 25, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think this is true at all

It just doesn’t make sense.

Josh Beckett is a free agent after the 2010 season. If he leaves, the Red Sox would still have Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz under their control going into 2011, which gives them both stability and some negotiating power over Beckett.

Trading Bucholz for Halladay improves the team for 2010, yet when the season is over they’ll be forced to negotiate with two expensive free agent pitchers with no leverage and no good Plan B if both leave.

I haven’t even mentioned their lineup, which is old and will need substitutions in the next few years.

I doubt Halladay is going to either the Yankees or the Red Sox unless the price falls into something comparable to what the Mets gave up for Santana.

by 3460kuri on Nov 25, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A signed contract extension would precede the trade

With David Ortiz and Mike Lowell coming off the books in 2011, Boston will have money to retain Josh Beckett. Halladay’s presence with the club certainly makes a strong case for Beckett to resign.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 25, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're under-rating Casey Kelly.

Sickels gave him a B- before the season, but then he absolutely dominated A Ball with a 2.08 ERA in 95 IP in his frist season pitching professionally. BPro has him as a five-star prospect and the number one (or 2, I forget) prospect in the Sox system.

Also, Buccholz looked really good last season. He dominated AAA, then came up and put together a really nice september. He’s still inconsistent, but I think he’s going to stick in this rotation for a long time. Personally, for reasons I described over on OTM, I would not give up Buchholz for Halladay. (For those too lazy to click the link, the reason is basically financial)

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 25, 2009 6:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Possibly. But I’ve been watching the Yankee farm system very closely for several years now, and one of the lessons I’ve gleaned from that experience is this: never by the hype until a guy dominates AA and maybe wait until he does it at AAA.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 25, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kelly was still only in A ball

Doesn’t matter how good he is, you can’t base a trade for the most dominant pitcher in the game based around a 19 year old. Yes his numbers were stellar but he made 8 and 9 starts in each league, that’s not exactly the biggest sample size.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 25, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably true.

Personally, I don’t think a deal will get done. Theo should not give up Buchholz for the right to pay Halladay free agent rates and Toronto will insist on Buccholz. Maybe Bowden and Kelly would get it done?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 25, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden and Kelly? I'd hope not, that would be a steal for the Sox.

Toronto is going to and should insist on Buc/Joba or Hughes. If he’s traded to one of us and the Jays don’t get one of those three I think it’s a loss. (discounting some sort of insane bulk package of all A level stars like Kelly, Westmoreland, Banuelos, Vizcaino etc.) Honestly it could come down to another Johan situation. Toronto asks for the world from Yanks/Boston who then become disinterested, then TOR has to settle for a shitty package from a 3rd party.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 25, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The other thing to consider:

is how happy the Sox are that they did not complete the Santana trade. They refused to give up Lester, who has proven to be as valuable as Santana for a fraction of the price. 33 year old pitchers are great for a year or two, but a long extension would be a mistake, as would giving up a cost-controlled, good pitcher. However, for the Yanks, the cost-angle is not as big a concren, given the extra $70M in spending capability.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 26, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Instead

of parting with one or possibly two of Montero, Joba or Hughes. I rather see Cashman hold off of trading for Halladay and just wait until Felix Hernandez becomes a FA.

by Yankees82 on Nov 25, 2009 10:02 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

HOLLIDAY

THE RED S—KS WILL NOT GET HOLLIDAY BECK.IS A FREE AGENT NEXT YEAR YHEY NEED OTHER HELP.BESIDES THE ANGELS ARE OFFERING A BETTER PACKAGE.

BIG YANKEE FAN,FROM MASS. HAVE TO PUT UP WIYH ALL THESE HOLE SOX FANS

by JEETS on Nov 26, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Halladay

by Wraithpk on Nov 26, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BS....

Listened to Bill Simmons yesterday. He came up with a plan that ALMOST could have worked… trading for Halladay using a package starting with Dice K AND Bucholz. Now, I’m not worried at all about facing Dice-K, but he’s an interesting bargaining chip, because although his cost was great, a large part was tied to the posting fee, and his salary is quite reasonable. What if Toronto can get TWO starters who are already used to pitching in the AL East, with a number of lesser prospects from the Red Sox. I was actually a little worried about it, until JackO reminded him Dice K has a full no-trade.

Whew…. who knew the full-trade that Boras got for a player, would bite the team in the ass…. again?

However, with that much salary coming off the books for the Red Sox next season, they will be a major player in the 2011 free-agent market, without a doubt. Let’s hope they screw it up.

by Vancouverguy on Nov 27, 2009 1:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs