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Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer?

We talked the other day about Jorge Posada's Hall of Fame worthiness. The other borderline New York Yankees is, of course, the veteran left-hander and long-time fan favorite Andy Pettitte.

So, here is your challenge for the day. Make your case for whether or not Pettitte is worthy of election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. As with Posada, I think Pettitte is a borderline case.

You can make a perfectly good, rational argument for why Pettitte is worthy of being enshrined in Cooperstown. You can also make a perfectly good, rational argument for why you find the notion of Pettitte being in the Hall of Fame to be ridiculous.

So, which side are you on?

Star-divide

The case for Pettitte

Pettitte, 37, has 229 wins over 15 seasons (15.2 per year) and a winning percentage of .629. He has also been a terrific post-season pitcher thru an era that has seen the Yankees win five World Series titles, compiling a record 18 career post-season victories.

He has won at least 20 games twice, and has never had a losing season. No pitcher has won more games than during the span of his career, which started in 1995.

I know, I know. Victories is not the only way to judge a starting pitcher's Hall of Fame Worthiness. If it was, you would have to put Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat and Mike Mussina, among others, in before even thinking about Pettitte.

If you use Pettitte's Baseball-Reference.com page, you can find similar pitchers who are in Cooperstown, and similar ones who are not.

Dig a little deeper and you see what the veteran left-hander has meant to the Yankees, and briefly the Astros, during his career. He is the pitching version of Tommy Henrich, Old Reliable. His World Series-clinching victory against Philadelphia this season was the sixth post-season series clinching victory of his career.

Forget all the intricate pitching numbers you can use to analyze a pitcher's performance. You can, justifiably, make the case that Pettitte's long-term excellence, consistency and post-season sturdiness make him a Hall of Famer.

The case against Pettitte

It starts with those victories again -- and I know you Sabermetricians out there will kill me for that. But, you can make a logical case that if Blyleven (287 victories), Kaat (283) and Jack Morris (254, and some memorable post-season performances) are not in then Pettitte doesn't belong, either.

You can point to Pettitte's career ERA of 3.90, higher than any other pitcher ever enshrined.

You could argue that Pettitte has not been the best pitcher on his own team, since 1996 and 1997, when he won 21 and 18 games and was the leader of the Yankee pitching staff.

Summary

You can argue this A LOT of different ways. You can throw around all sorts of numbers, whatever suits the case you want to make. You can compare him to all manner of pitchers, both guys in or out of Cooperstown. Again, whichever way suits your case.

For me, as I examine it I think Pettitte gets in. Here's why.

I haven't thought of him as an ace for a long time, but when you go by the "best of his era" test the fact that Pettitte has more victories than anyone during the span of his career puts him in the dominant category. His post-season work during a time in which the Yankees have won five World Series puts him over the top for me.

Your thoughts?

Poll
Will New York Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame when his career is finished?
Yes
595 votes
No
229 votes
Undecided
110 votes

934 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 41 comments |

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Yes

I think Pettitte should get into the HOF. To me both he and Jack Morris belong in the Hall. I have heard over the past years many baseball analysts trumpet Schilling’s career and say he is a HOF’er for his post season exploits. If that is the case how can Pettitte NOT get in? Winningest post season pitcher of all time. In the post season at least he dominated his era. In his only full season with the Astro’s helped them get to their only WS.

by ae2cdk on Nov 25, 2009 7:27 AM EST reply actions  

A lot depends on this upcoming season.

I love Andy Pettitte but it depends if this is something that’s a priority for him. It sounds weird right? I know. Who doesn’t want to end up in the hall of fame? First off he has to come back for another season and have a year like he had last season. A few more post season victories wouldn’t hurt either. In reality if he really wants to get into the HOF he should plan on pitching another 3-4 seasons. Hopefully he stays with the Yankees for this time period. This probably puts him at the 260-270 win plateau plus hopefully several more playoff victories. The longer he plays the more he cements his chances. The thing about Andy is he seems to have almost no ego and is a devout family man. He might be ready to call it quits now and spend time with his wife and kids.

by bronx joey on Nov 25, 2009 7:34 AM EST reply actions  

yeah I cant see him pitching 3 or 4 more seasons.

Maybe one or two. Like you said, he is a devout family man. He is not going to stay in the game longer than he is wanted or needed like Sheffield. If he wants to go down as a true Yankee Great, he will finish his career in the bronx.

VA Yankee since 93'

by jramey on Nov 25, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I dunno on Andy...

I know I said Posada gets in, but that’s cuz of how he stacks up with the other catchers in the hall. I’m still not sure on him tho, cuz he’s just too average a defensive catcher.

Pettite’s best case is being consistent and those 5 WS rights (and also being in the WS with the Astros too)

His actual numbers tho? Not sure.

In the long run its gonna depend on what the voters determine a vaild HOF career is for a pitcher. Its kind of obvious that the 300 game winner may die out, at for a while. So what is a HOF pitcher from this era?

If Andy’s done, I gotta say no. If he plays one or even 2 more years and puts up another season like he did this one? I think he’d be one of those to eventually get tabbed as a HOFer.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 25, 2009 7:56 AM EST reply actions  

Well if Andy dosen't,

would Pedro? Andy has more wins and Postseason sucess. Pedro was truely a dominent pitcher of this era…..

VA Yankee since 93'

by jramey on Nov 25, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions  

If you go by Pedro...

Andy shouldn’t sniff the HOF.

Pedro was THE best pitcher in the game for a pretty long period of time. Not just on his team, but THE best pitcher in all of baseball.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 25, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Saying no is easier than saying yes.

Maddux, Rocket, Glavine and Johnson all made to 300 wins.
Pedro had an untouchable peak (though Maddux gets underrated in comparisons).
So Pettitte clearly is not among the elite of his era.

But this was an era with what seems like a large number of successful pitchers. Maybe Pettitte is a special case.

Like Mussina, Andy never won a Cy. Mussina had more wins that Pettitte (270 v. 229), a better ERA+ (123 v 116), a better K/9 (7.1 v 6.6) and a much better WHIP (1.192 v 1.361).

David Wells beats Pettitte in WHIP and wins, he has a ring.

Smoltz has a Cy and a ring, 200 wins, 150 Saves, a 1.176 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, a 125ERA+.

Curt Schilling will probably get in on his cred as a Yankee killer with 3 rings. Schilling never won a Cy (though he probably would have won one with the Diamondbacks had Johnson not been untouchable for so long. Schilling beats Pettitte in WHIP (1.137), K/9 (8.6), and ERA+ (127).

Moyer doesn’t have the peripherals of Pettitte, but he has more wins, an equal WHIP, a ring, and a very intriguing narrative.

That gives us 10 starters with a case equal to or better than Pettitte. Add in the HOF closers (Mo and Hoffman with Percival and Wagner on the fringe).
Are the BWAA going to elect a dozen pitchers to the Hall in the next 15 years? They might, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Jack Morris couldn’t get in on the “big game pitcher” line. Jim Kaat, Tommy John, and Bert Blyleven aren’t in. Andy will be in good company.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 25, 2009 8:21 AM EST reply actions  

Good summary

Like I said, you can make a case either way. You made a very convincing case against. Good stuff. And you might very well be right.

by Ed Valentine on Nov 25, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Wagner?

Wagner is not in the hall of fame
As far as Pettite goes, he still needs a couple more years to get those wins up and maybe another one or two rings and he is in.
But Pettite is definitely going behind centerfield at Yankee Stadium though, without question.

by McDaniel on Nov 25, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions  

Interesting stats

Pitcher A – career won/lost – 254-186, 3,824 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 105 ERA+
Pitcher B – career won/lost – 258-195, 3,908 IP, 1.323 WHIP, 105 ERA+

One of these guys is Jack Morris, the other is Jamie Moyer.

by 3460kuri on Nov 25, 2009 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

No Whitey Ford, no Pettitte

Sorry but Whitey Ford isn’t a HOF’er and Pettitte isn’t either.

by RuBiCaNT on Nov 25, 2009 9:06 AM EST reply actions  

True

"You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth." Mickey

by Cbeck3 on Nov 25, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 25, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

If Whitey Ford is NOT a HOFer...

they need to take him out of Cooperstown.

…..sad that the internet is but a click away…..

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 25, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Erm, last I checked, Whitey is in the Hall.

Play today, win today, ‘das it.

by noonoo on Nov 25, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

WTF??? here is Mr.Ford's stats- what an @%$#@! Rubicant is!

Member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame
Induction 1974
Vote 77.81%

by McDaniel on Nov 25, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Bonds and McGuire

Go in before Andy. Sad but true.

"You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth." Mickey

by Cbeck3 on Nov 25, 2009 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

yes

The 500 pound gorilla nobody here is mentioning— steroids.

by 209209 on Nov 25, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Andy Pettitte = not a Hall of Famer

It pains me to say this, but I don’t think it’s even close.

Despite the fact that he won (at least) 5 World Series, I’d be willing to bet that at least a half-dozen Yankees pitchers from the 1930s-1950s did as well. That alone does not warrant induction.

To see how Pettitte stacks up against his contemporaries, I created a list of starting pitchers who won at least 150 games and played the majority of their career between 1980 and 2009. I tracked wins, WARP3 (wins above replacement, adjusted for all-time), and ERA+. Of 34 pitchers who met the requirement, he ranks 8th in wins (229), 17th in WARP3 (55.1) , and 15th in ERA+ (116). Clearly, pitching behind a good/great offense for most of his career inflated his wins total beyond where it probably should be, and it’s the wins total that’s prompting this conversation.

The real problem is that the following pitchers all had a higher career WARP3 total than Pettite: Jamie Moyer, Dwight Gooden, Chuck Finley, Orel Hershiser, David Cone, Kenny Rogers, Bret Saberhagen, and Kevin Brown. While a good 2010 season would probably move him ahead of Moyer and Gooden, it’s unlikely he’s going to get the 8.4 WARP needed to pass Kenny Rogers, no matter how much longer he plays, and he’ll never catch Kevin Brown (73.2 career WARP3).

It’s a double whammy for Pettitte: he misses out from the traditionalist viewpoint – never won a Cy Young, only one 20 games once, used HGH – but also from the sabermetric viewpoint.

by 3460kuri on Nov 25, 2009 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

he actually won 20 games twice… in ’96 and ’03. he went 21-8 in both seasons.

Play today, win today, ‘das it.

by noonoo on Nov 25, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

if he pitches big again this year

with another heroic post season…it might push him over the top
for now i would sadly have to say no

by holycowboy on Nov 25, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

If it is this close he doesn't get in

They will keep him out for being linked to steroids.Right or wrong that is what will decide it.

by cashman bashman on Nov 25, 2009 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

Just so everyone realizes

Whitey Ford is most definitely in the Hall of Fame. I’m sorry that’s quite possibly the most ridiculous statement I’ve read on this board.

by bronx joey on Nov 25, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

It depends on what he wants

if he really wants to be a Hall of Famer, and he’s willing to do the work to be one, then he has a chance. He has the talent. But he may not want to. Remember, Mike Mussina was a Hall of Fame pitcher. He could have pitched 3-4 more years, won a championship, won 300 games and got 3000 strikeouts, and been a first round lock for the HOF. But he chose not to because it didn’t matter to him. And now it’s a debate for him. It’s not a sure thing that Mussina gets in.

With Pettitte, it’s the same thing. However, he’s further behind than Mussina. Mussina, as it stands right now, has a shot at the HOF. Pettitte, if he were to retire today, has no chance. If Pettitte plays long enough, he can create a debate for himself. I don’t think that Andy has a chance to make a sure case for himself. But if he plays longer, he can give himself a chance.

Whether he wants to do it, thats his choice.

And guys, Whitey Ford is in the Hall of Fame. Thats pretty ridiculous to say that he isn’t. Just needed to point that out.

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 25, 2009 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

My Bad...

I meant Tommy John, not Whitey Ford… I could have sworn it was Ford… Anyway, Tommy’s Career Stats..

288 wins, 3.34 ERA, and 2,245 SO, ERA+ 110, WHIP 1.2

by RuBiCaNT on Nov 25, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions  

Absolutely no HoF for Andy

Love having him as a Yankee, and we may not win those 5 WS without him. However, his ERA alone excludes him. A 3.90 ERA is the stuff of a 2-3 guy on a good staff, and those aren’t the guys that get enshrined.

Wins don’t matter, but even if they did Andy is the kind of guy that needs 300+ to make the Hall and he just isn’t gonna get close to that.

There is also the HGH issue.

So yes, Andy is a key Yankee and may find his way to Monument Park, but he is certainly NOT a Hall of Famer. My buddy and I have a “Hall of Very Good” for guys like Andy, Moose, and Bernie Williams.

Incidentally we have it for all sports. Here’s a sample: NFL- Warrick Dunn, Donald Driver, Charles Woodson, Steve McNair; NBA- lord there are a lot here- Glen Rice, Dennis Rodman, Terry Porter, Robert Horry, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo; Golf- Jim Furyk, Angel Cabrera, John Daly…etc.

What were we talking about?

by GMan83201 on Nov 25, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

andy

i think he gets in. we have to keep in mind this is a new era. this is the streoid era where hitters hit 50 HRs easily and pitchers wont get 20 wins (we havent had but one or 2 in 5 years). Pettitte has the best post season stats ever and has been the mark of consistency in a tough AL east. 230 wins a sub 4 era over 2000 ks and 5 WS titles. He gets in imo because he is the best big game pitcher baseball has seen in this era.

by dyanks10 on Nov 25, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions  

Id have to say oyu make some grand generalizations in your argument. "best postsoeason stats ever"? ask bob gibson, christy matthewson, and even schiiling and smoltz are comparable. "best big game pitcher baseball has seen in this era" also is an if

You make some good points though Id have to say you make some grand generalizations in your argument as well. “best postsoeason stats ever”? ask bob gibson, christy matthewson, and even schiiling and smoltz are comparable. “best big game pitcher baseball has seen in this era” also is an iffy statement, he wasnt always asked to pitch the game 7, etc. ANd as much as hitters were taking steroids, so were pitchers, and Pettitte even admitted to taking HGH.

by jirwin on Nov 25, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

From Pettite's era there are too many that were better

Glavine, Maddux, Pedro, Johnson and Clemens are all definitely in (unless Clemens gets penalized, but that’s another discussion). Smoltz, Schilling and Mussina ought to be in. And then Pettite, Kevin Brown and some others are on the bubble. There are just too many guys ahead of Pettite.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 25, 2009 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

But that’s 10 pitchers from one era. How many pitchers have pitched during that span? I dunno. But my point is…..let’s say there have been 200-300 pitchers in that time….(guessing), then is it wrong to put all 10 in?

I don’t think so.

by Ragnar808 on Nov 25, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know. But some relief pitchers should get in too, including Mariano and Hoffman. Not to mention that I would put Kevin Brown in before Pettitte.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 25, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Statistically, about 2-3% of all players end up in the hall. So lets say there are 250 pitchers of Pettite’s era – we can expect 5-7 to end up in the hall. However, that is an average, and statistical blips do occur. Maybe 10 do make it in, but that’s pushing it.

by misterd on Nov 26, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

The case against Andy

I think he falls short. Sure, Andy is 94 games over .500 and W-L% of .629 is 53rd best of all-time. However, you have to consider that he’s had the sixth highest run support (5.3 runs/game) of all pitchers with at least 200 games started. Andy’s career 3.91 ERA would be the highest among those pitchers already in the HOF.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 25, 2009 7:40 PM EST reply actions  

sixth highest run support since 1954.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 25, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I mostly think wins are a useless stat

but not for Andy. more than any other pitcher I’ve seen, he always seems to do just enough to win the game. he’s always got guys on base, he’s never really had dominant stuff, but he’s a game-winning machine, and I don’t think it’s just an issue of run support. that said, is he a HOFer? if he retired tomorrow, I would say no. 2-3 more productive seasons and I think he would have to enter the conversation.

by DocBrown82 on Nov 26, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions  

2 to 3 more years ..... then a conversation

I’ve always been a huge Pettitte fan. I love the way he steps up in big games, his focus and his overall consistency and durability. His ERA could be problematic …… he clearly gives up a lot of hits and normally works with a fair amount of baserunners. That said, he also is great pitching out of jams and his pick-off move is still the best in the MLB.

I think if he pitches another 2 or 3 years (this may be a stretch but …… you never know) and gets his win total above 250 (plus a few more post-season wins would be huge), I think there would be a strong case for Andy making it into the HOF. I’m hoping for it. If he decides to retire during this off-season, though, I think it is not likely he’ll get in -— possible but the odds are probably against it.

by Jeff I on Nov 26, 2009 11:25 AM EST reply actions  

The Performance Enhancing Drugs Argument

If the past season has proven anything, Pettitte and ARod performed just fine without them, so I dont think that the PEDs come into play. Look at how Manny played after coming back, PEDs obviously helped his game. Same with guys like Sosa and Gagne, no drugs, ordinary players. Bonds on the other hand, was a H.O.F. player before all the scandal, and should get in. Like Mussina, Pettitte is borderline, but if Schilling gets in, then one or both of these guys should get in.

by YankeesJets on Nov 26, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions  

Love Andy, Love what he brings to the team...but no HOF

For his career, AP is a #2 or 3 starter who’s been blessed with terrific teams.

His 116 career ERA+ is impressive, but does not put him in the “pantheon” of great players for his era. His 1.36 WHIP is pretty bad for a dominant pitcher.

And even if he was borderline, the HGH issue is going to kill him.

In some ways, he’s the Bernie Williams of pitching for this era…someone who looks a lot better thanks to the team they played for.

by PortlandYankee on Nov 26, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions  

I think Andy Is More Important Than Bernie

Anytime a pitcher can have close to 100 more wins than losses is a pretty big deal. Sure Andy pitched on great teams, but if he was just mediocre, he wouldn’t have remained on those teams. Every pitcher with a 100 more wins than losses has made the hall, so perhaps Andy has a slight chance. I loved Bernie but his numbers are not comparable in any way to the best in the game during his prime years, while Andy has to be a top 10 pitcher during his prime years.

by YankeesJets on Nov 26, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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