Jorge Posada a Hall of Famer?
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2009 8:12 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintIs Jorge Posada worthy of election to the Baseball Hall of Fame?
Occasionally throughout the 2009 season, and recently during this off-season, I have seen the phrase "Future Hall of Famer" attached to Posada's name.
Is that really true? It might be, but each time I have read that statement I have questioned it. So, let's take a look at Jorge's Hall of Fame worthiness.
There are 16 catchers enshrined in Cooperstown. It's probably fair to compare Jorge to the two most modern catchers enshrined -- Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter. I'd say Carter might be the best comparison, especially since the length of their careers will be almost identical when Posada is done playing.
In an 18-year career, Carter finished with 324 home runs, 1,225 RBI and a .262 batting average. In 15 seasons, Posada is at .277 with 243 home runs and 943 RBI. Two more relatively productive seasons and he will be around 270 home runs and close to 1,100 RBIs in 17 seasons. Posada does have higher on-base percentages (.379-.335) and slugging percentages (.480-.439) than Carter.
Are those numbers close enough that you would consider them a wash? You could certainly make that argument, in which case you probably have to say is Carter is a Hall of Famer then Posada should also get in.
There are other factors, though.
There is, of course, Posada's often-discussed defense. As he ages, his defensive deficiencies become more and more of a topic of discussion. In my mind, he has never been great defensively but throughout much of his career you have to say he has been good enough. He has been the catcher for five World Series winners, and that has to count for something.
The other test, for me, is how dominant a player is during his era. Posada has the five rings, and five All-Star appearances. Clearly, though, the dominant catcher of this era is Ivan Rodriguez.
Rodriguez dwarfs Posada both offensively and defensively. Offensively, a .299 career average, 305 home runs, 1,264 RBI, 125 stolen bases. Defensively, 13 Gold Gloves to none for Posada, and a career percentage of throwing out 46 percent of potential base-stealers to Posada's 29 percent.
So, by the dominant player of his era test, Posada does not measure up.
I guess I have always thought of Posada as a very good player, and a very important Yankee during this era because of his bat and his toughness. I have never thought of him as 'great' though, and I am still on the fence about whether or not he will eventually belong in Cooperstown.
What do you guys think?
[NOTE: At some point in the next few days we will also debate Andy Pettitte's HOF worthiness. So, leave him out of this for now, please.]
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Considering Carter's #
I’m leaning towards yes. I voted yes cuz I think Jorge will put up those numbers you put Ed.
Also worth noting, Carter played all over the field. Does that dimish his “catcher-cred” or does it mean he’s a great athlete who can play all over?
Also….1998, 1999,2000, 2009.WS Champ. 4 time WS champ. He was part of those teams and a big reason they won em all. I’d even say that him being injured for much of 2008 was a big reason the Yanks missed the playoffs.
He was damn near MVP in 2007 (contract year..but still….)
Jorge started 88 games this year and played C in 100. I’d think he puts up a similar split this year, considering he was out for a while in 2009.
I know his defense was atrocious at times…so if there’s an argument against Jorge, its that.
Maybe he’s not a 1st ballot like Jeet, MO or A-Rod (if they look past the roid thing…) but I think he’d be one of those to eventually get in.
It doesn’t entirely depend on 2010…but a good one could cement his status.
"It ain't over till its over"---
well
I don’t think in 2007 anybody was anywhere near close to the winner, who had one of the greatest hitting seasons of all time, but it was still a great season for him. Best year of his career.
He’s a champion. He’s won 5 times. Thats the biggest argument for him in my mind. His argument against? Look at him behind the plate.
What about Posada's other numbers?
World series rings?
Playoff batting average?
He’s a much better player than Carter was.
well
Posada’s postseason average isn’t really all that good. In fact, his WS average is flat out awful.
Interesting question
There are only 13 catchers in the Hall of Fame, and only 5 of them played the majority of their career after World War II. Here’s that list, along with career WARP3, career plate appearances, and the percentage of plate appearances that came as a catcher (italicized percentages mean he played a portion of his career prior to 1954 for which no game logs exist, thus this is an approximation):
Johnny Bench – 84.7 – 8,669 – 80.2%
Yogi Berra – 73.2 – 8,364 – 80-85%
Roy Campenella – 45.7 – 4,816 – 95%
Gary Carter – 79.7 – 9,019 – 90.6%
Carlton Fisk – 65.9 – 9,853 – 89.3%
Here are a few recent candidates
Mike Piazza – 68.7 – 7,745 – 88.1%
Ivan Rodriguez – 82.9 – 9,712 – 96.5%
Jorge Posada – 53.6 – 6,312 – 93.1%
And just for kicks:
Joe Mauer – 34.5 – 2,994 – 87.0%
Posada’s had at least 1,400 fewer plate appearances than everybody else on this list (except Roy Campanella, who was the victim of extenuating circumstances at both ends of his career). My concern is when you compare him to other catchers of his day. At any given point, he was never the best-hitting or the best-fielding catcher of his day. He also had a relatively short career. Yet he did win five World Series, and he was a Yankee, which certainly both help the cause.
Barring injury, and assuming he retires after his current contract, he’s probably going to end his career with 7,000 plate appearances and an OPS roughly 20% better than league average. Ted Simmons had a similar OPS+ over nearly 10,000 plate appearances, and he’s not in. So who knows.
Number of catchers
Thought there were 16 — http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/hofmem.htm
Anyway, it is a really interesting question. I think Jorge is the classic definition of borderline, no matter what numbers you use or what standards you judge him by.
by Ed Valentine on Nov 23, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
Conspiracy theory....
There is a nice comparison of the three mentioned catcher’s wOBA in their respective ages. By looking at that, I would have to say that if Fisk and Carter are HOF’ers, then Jorge is too. Jorge broke into the league a bit later than the other two, but all 3 had very similar numbers until the age of 31, where Jorge continued near or above his career average, but Fisk and Carter both began to decline.
The subject of my post is about this: look at Fisk’s numbers from 39-43 years old. From the age of 28 to 38, his numbers trended to a slow, but stead decline. Then suddenly, from his 39-42 years, he had a large resurgence in his wOBA, and OPS+. In his age 40 year, he had a wOBA of .396, the largest wOBA he’d posted since he was 29. He went on to have 3 seasons at above his career averages in wOBA and OPS+ at an age where he should have been bottoming out, especially since he had already been in decline for a number of years.
My question is this: what can explain this? Is this an example of spotting possible steroid/PED use by finding suspicious jumps in performance at older ages, or was it just random luck, or some kind of special training Fisk did to string together his best 3 year run of his career at such a late age? Just to provide some reference, here’s his numbers compared to Barry bonds.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1004101&playerid2=1109&playerid3=&position=C&page=8&type=full
You’ll notice a similar pattern, both above average careers for a long time, then sudden jumps above their career averages at late ages where they should be regressing. Bonds’ is much more noticeable and obvious, but the same type of jump is there for Fisk too. Perhaps the PED they had in the late 80s just weren’t as effective as what Bonds had?
What does everyone think about this? Am I just paranoid since pretty much all my favorite players, except Jeter, were busted on ’roids, or is there something to what I noticed?
If all of your allegations are merely based
on unexpected success, then don’t expect much of a reaction. Even with the way everyone immediately assumes the worst about players, without ANY hard evidence it’s pretty ridiculous to point the finger at someone.
While this isn’t impossible, sometimes it’s not roids, but just “shit happens” and I think that players still deserve that benefit of the doubt.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
Hall Of Fame not the Hall of Great
Posada was a great player for the Yankees but is not even close to being a Hall of Famer. When you take into account IMHO a players career if you have to take more than a beat to answer the question of whether someone should be a HOF’er than they are not.
The Hall is for transcendant players, players who dominated their era and players who made a significant and lasting impact on the game. Jorge for as much as he did for the Yankees was and is none of these. I personally feel that if he were with another organization he would not even have been a starting catcher as long as he was. I think he would have been turned into a DH/1ST type .
BTw in the interests of full disclosure I have never been a big Posada fan as far as loving him as a catcher.
The Hall is for transcendant players, players who dominated their era and players who made a significant and lasting impact on the game
The thing is, it’s actually not. There’s no objective requirement (other than 10 years’ service time) that defines who is and who isn’t a Hall of Famer. Clearly, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Babe Ruth belong, but just as clearly, Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, and Catfish Hunter probably don’t.
The problem is figuring out who falls in between.
In theory...
yea, your right. Should be the the Hall of Fame.
The reality? Its the Hall of Great.
Your hate for Posada is mind boggling and wrong. “Not even a starting catcher”????/ are you serious?
He aint the hitter Piazza was…but he sure as hell is a better defensive catcher and a damn good hitter (obviously).
Maybe he’d DH more or get moved to first if a team had a Mauer waiting in the wings…but the reality is most teams don’t.
Every single MLB team who didn’t have a catcher in Posada’s caliber would have killed to get one like him
Posada’s #‘s parlay well with C’s already in the HOF. HOF for the most part is not based on fielding, tho some with borderline HOF hitting stats get in cuz they were great fielders (eventually…).
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 23, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Never said I “HATE” Posada I just said I have never been a fan of his as a starting catcher. I have always been more partial to catchers who put defense above hitting and who didn’t have an aversion to blocking balls in the dirt and bllocking the plate. I am NOT a Piazza fan either by the way. While I agree with you that numbers wise he is on par with most of the catchers already in the Hall, I don’t think he is a HOF’er.
Career OPS+ of Hall of Fame catchers
1) Mike Piazza – 142
2) Mickey Cochrane – 128 (Hall of Fame)
3) Bill Dickey – 127 (Hall of Fame)
t4) Johnny Bench – 126 (Hall of Fame)
t4) Gabby Hartnett – 126 (Hall of Fame)
t6) Yogi Berra – 125 (Hall of Fame)
t6) Ernie Lombardi – 125 (Hall of Fame)
t8) Roy Campanella – 124 (Hall of Fame)
t8) Jorge Posada – 124
t11) Carlton Fisk – 117 (Hall of Fame)
17) Gary Carter – 115 (Hall of Fame)
t22) Ivan Rodriguez – 110
t51) Rick Ferrell – 95 (Hall of Fame)
t72) Ray Schalk – 73 (Hall of Fame)
Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez are HOF locks when they become eligible. I think the voters will give Posada and his five WS rings the nod and look past his defensive-deficiencies.
and you can go head
and put HOF next to Pudge and Piazza (unless they get pointed out as roiders).
If they do get pointed out as roiders, and Posada does not? He may be a first ballot HOFer.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 23, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Jorge
also has caught some pretty big games which has to count for something. Pitchers lean on their catchers to keep them calm and call good pitches. Posada has done a damn good job of it with guys all types of guys… rookies to super stars.
forget about whether he SHOULD be in the HOF
and consider whether he WILL get in. I think the answer to that question is definitely yes. His stats, plus the WS rings, will earn him plenty of votes. Plus, you have to consider that Torre, Rivera, and Jeter are all locks to get into the HOF. All three of those guys are highly respected by voters, and they’ll lobby for Posada if he doesn’t get in on one of the first few ballots. (I know we’re not supposed to talk about Pettitte, but I think all of this applies to Pettitte as well.)
by long time listener on Nov 23, 2009 1:46 PM EST reply actions
Jorge on the bubble
Like Pettitte and even Mussina (although I think Moose gets in), Posada never truly dominated his position the way Berra, Dickey, Cochrane, and even Bench did. But as an earlier post pointed out, Posada’s got 5 rings—something most HofFers never achieve.
Is Posada a “Hall of Fame” player as someone else asked?
Of course not. In fact, the Hall is filled with bubble players. In my opinion perhaps 20-25 players are truly Hall of Fame worthy. Guys like Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Williams, Mays … The vast majority are truly great players who deserve their status. In looking at the position over the last 25 years, Posada ranks near the top in every offensive category + he’s got the rings. That said, he almost certainly has to be considered Hall worthy.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
This Generation
Pudge, Piazza, and Jorge are the three outstanding catchers of this generaton. Sort of like Micky, Willie and the Duke. The queston is how often does the third guy get in? If you look at historacal numbers Jorge is already in the area of HOF catchers. Chuck Rosciam had a interesting article on Catcher Greatness in this Summer 2009 issue of The Baseball Research Journal.
If he plays
another few years, whether catching or at DH, and is a .280 20HR guy for those years, I think that plus post season performance and WS rings put him in.
the WS rings have to count for something.....
I think it puts him in – he’s been a quiet leader of that club for a long long time….and the numbers are very good – not great but very good. But I think to be a main cog in those Yankee championship teams all these years puts him in.
Torre, Mo, Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettite
They all get in….doesn’t matter how long it will take…they all get in….when you have a dynasty…you show respect….
I mean let’s put it in perspective…since the late 90’s we have dominated baseball either by consecutive playoff appearances, WS appearances, or Rings.
In between those guys you have over 20 chmapionship rings….20 CHAMPIONSHIP RINGS!….
You can’t parts of a dynasty in the HOF and leave parts out. If not anything else that’s Baseball Injustice….
-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................
Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........
by NYYWinsRings27 on Nov 23, 2009 7:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Cant put parts*
-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................
Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........
by NYYWinsRings27 on Nov 23, 2009 7:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Posada
has 5 rings but only 2 as a starter, if i recall correctly. He wasn’t even on the post-season roster for 1996.
I think he won’t get in, though he should, based on:
- career numbers
- 5-time all star
- 5-time silver slugger award winner
All he’s missing is a gold glove, which may be his biggest obstacle as a overall catching package.
Goes back to my problem with having the BBWAA do the voting for these selections. Based on that alone (Yankee hate) I think only the best of the best Yankees from the last 15 years will get in the HoF.
Unless Pudge gets blackballed from the Hall because of roids
I doubt that Jorge gets the nod. His numbers are very borderline as far as HOF is concerned, and Pudge was a superior catcher during his era.
His rings definitely count for something, but I think that playing alongside great players and playing in both “hitter friendly” Yankee Stadiums will hurt him. Also, I’ve heard one or two folks on this site mention that there are several sports writers who aren’t openly smitten with our Yankees.
So does he deserve it? Maybe. Will he get it? Doubt it.
I say that if I could choose between him and Andy getting in, I’d go with Andy.
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
steroids
It will be interesting to see how the steroids thing plays out, and that will determine alot of this Hall of Fame stuff. Right now, Mark McGwire is banned from the Hall because of steroids. By the time A-Rod is eligible, will that still be as big an issue? If it is, then Pettite will never get in, he admitted using steroids. Clemens would never get in, Sosa, etc. Even if it is forgiven, Pettite to me seems borderline. If Jorge never did roids, or never gets caught, then I’d say that would VASTLY increase his chances of getting into the Hall over Piazza and IRod. If it starts to matter less to the voters, then it’s more of a toss-up. If the vote were held today with these current witers, and I-Rod, Piazza and Posada were all up for possible first-time induction, the only one who’d get in would be Posada just because he didn’t do roids. Will that still matter as much or at all in 5, 10, 15 years? That’s probably the question that would need to be answered before you could make any accurate predictions about Hall inductees of the future.
I think...
the guys who came out and admitted their PED use and were honest will be given leniency. Also, I think it will depend on what the voters feel you would have accomplished without steroids.
A-Rod was a superstar before he took roids, and is a superstar now without them. You really can’t keep A-Rod out of the HOF because he’s one of the best players ever to play the game. He came out and admitted he used steroids, admitted it was a mistake and appologized. I think some people will not vote for him, but enough will forgive him to get him in first ballot.
Then there are guys like McGwire, Clemens, and Bonds. All of these guys are no-brainer HOF’ers, and would have been with or without the help of steroids, but they refuse to admit what they did, so I don’t see them getting leniency.
The major shitstorm is gunna be when the voters let a guy in, and then it’s later revealed that he used steroids during his career.
Oh and a caption for that picture
“c’mere AJ”
This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.
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