The Importance of Pettitte

by jscape2000 on Nov 21, 2009 4:00 PM EST in Analysis Comment 5 comments

We do this every year, don't we?

But how important is Andy Pettitte to the Yankees' success?

I certainly want him to come back, but as I look over the end of the year numbers, I can't help but notice that he got lucky.

His BABIP was .301, down from .339 last season, and the lowest of his Yankee career (he posted lower twice with the Astros). It was out of line from his Line Drive %, so we should expect some regression.

My gut reaction was to think, Andy gives up a lot of groundballs, and with the addition of Tex and with Jeter's career year with the glove, it's certainly possible that they turned more grounders into outs that previous seasons- maybe the difference is sustainable. But Andy's Ground Ball % went way down: from averaging 50% the last 3 seasons to 42.9 percent this season. And all the rest of those outs turned into fly balls, not a terrible thing for a lefty in Yankee Stadium, but not encouraging either.

His fastball continues to average 89 mph, and the cutter still looks good. FanGraphs figures he was a $15M player in 2009. Make no mistake: a pitcher who can throw 200 innings in the AL East is a valuable player. And the Yankees need him back.

I just worry that we're hoping for more than we have right to expect.

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I agree.

I’ve been thinking about this too. Andy pitched incredible this year. But remember him 2008? He wasn’t bad, but he was much better this year.

His return to the Yanks has overall been pretty good, and I think we could probably expect another 190 innings again…but to expect the 2009 Andy again, maybe a little high expectations.

Girardi and the rest of the coaches have been good with limiting innings, so with the obvious goal of making the playoffs and winning the WS, I think if Andy re-signs you’ll see his innings limited.

Maybe we could expect the “Andy Rules” in edition to the Joba and Hughes Rules…..I can hear the bitching already….

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 21, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Joba and Hughes

I heard neither of these guys will be on any limits this year. I really feel like Joba’s ineffectiveness towards the end of the year was due to too much rest. He’s a power pitcher like CC who gets better as his arm strength is maintained, if you don’t let him pitch enough his arm weakens and he gets shelled.

by Wraithpk on Nov 21, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

well that's a good thing...

as long as the only people who know about the limits are the coaching staff, that’s a good thing.

I highly doubt they’d just let both of them, especially Hughes after he was a reliever for most of the season, to go out there and even attempt to throw a ton of innings ( I say attempt…cuz Joba limited himself most of last year)

It will be there, I just hope that they keep it in house.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 21, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

The fact is, we always hope for more than we can expect to get

The Wang injury last year was a big blow. Who knows what it will be next year. It may be Andy. It may not.

Resigning Andy is what we should do unless you have a better suggestion for the money and the roster spot.

"You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth." Mickey

by Cbeck3 on Nov 21, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions

Don't Underestimate a Healthy Pettitte

Pettitte fell off in the 2nd half of 2008 because he was pitching in pain and not entirely healthy. This year that wasn’t the case. The Yankees brought him in to, effectively, be the 4th starter. He ended up as the 3rd starter and it could easily be argued that in reality he was the 2nd starter as he was more consistent that Burnett.

I think if Andy is healthy he is good for at least 12 wins next year and …… if things fall in place even reasonably well …… 15 or 16 wins is not out of the question. All of this combined with the fact that …… assuming they get into the post-season, I’d still rather have Pettitte starting than anyone they have now except CC.

by Jeff I on Nov 21, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions