World Series Simulation, Game #5

by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 1:34 AM EST

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee. There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5. AccuScore's numbers are out and they are splitting the difference between the Simulator and Vegas.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

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Comments

Ummm....

Why is score one non-existent? WAIT! Does the simulator know something???

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Nov 2, 2009 1:50 AM EST reply actions

No. No it doesn't

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Nov 2, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions

The sim crank got jammed

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 2, 2009 2:31 AM EST up reply actions

haha, Fanpost Cut n Paste fail. Fixed now. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions

I’m surprised how heavily the Phils are favored.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 2, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions

It’s all because of Sir Clifford Lee. The Vegas line is actually moving even more heavily towards the Phillies the last time I checked. It may reach 60% by game time. If the Phillies went with a one man rotation the Yankees would be in trouble. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

71

71st most likely score hits for those keeping track at home. The over/under was only around 8.5, so a 14 run score will do that to you. The Simulator did a better job than Vegas and AccuScore on predicting the win probability on this particular game. It’s on to Game #6 and back to NY. A new simulation will be up shortly.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions

I am keeping track at home.

71 gets your sim a -1

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Nov 2, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

Actually, a 71 on a 8-6 game with an over/under of 8.5 is normal. Putting more weight on the Phillies to win than Vegas by quite a bit is what you should be really looking at. Of course, only looking at a handful of games isn’t going to tell you much from a statistical significance point of view, but if you want to keep track at home in an American Idol kind of way, that’s fine. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 3, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions