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Is Swish really on the trading block?

If you haven't heard the rumor, the Yankees are "quietly" making Nick Swisher available for trade. I have no idea if there is any truth to this, nor do I know how available Brian Cashman has made him.  However, if this rumor is correct, I think I may know why. 

Compare Nick Swisher over the last three seasons to a certain Mystery player X:

Photobucket

Want to guess who this mystery player is?  I'll give you a hint: he just reportedly turned down a 4-year, $60 million dollar offer.

Jason Bay is the second-most coveted, and likely to be the second-highest paid, outfielder/hitter on the free agent market this offseason.  And while he's a fine player, I'm just not that convinced he's that much better than Swisher when you factor in defense and age.  And that's where it gets interesting. 

Bay is 31 years old, and at this point it seems unlikely that he'll sign for anything less than 5 years/$75 million.  Swisher, on the other hand, is only 29, and is signed for a total of $25.5 million (including a team option) for the next three years. 

Given the choice between two good (but not elite) outfielders, most GMs would probably choose the younger, cheaper one. Brian Cashman is no doubt aware of this. Swisher is a great value, based on his production and his salary (and who the Yankees gave up for him), and  I have a feeling that his availability hinges on the number of teams who have pitching, need hitting, and don't want to spend eight figures in the free agent market.  

This is pure speculation, but the Atlanta Braves fit that description perfectly.  They have holes in at least one outfield corner and first base, in fact, the lack of offense probably kept them out of the playoffs in 2009.  They also have six good starting pitchers signed for 2010.  Tommy Hanson is untouchable and Tim Hudson just signed a three-year extension.  While they'd love to move Derek Lowe, his salary is probably too high, and nobody seems that interesting in Kenshin Kawakami.  That leaves Javier Vazquez (pass) and Jair Jurrjens.

One would think that any team would be reluctant to part with a 24 year old pitcher who's posted stellar ERAs the past two seasons.  I'm not suggesting this is probable or likely.  However, when a team is dealing from a position of strength to fill a glaring need, strange things can happen.  And I think Cashman may be dangling Swisher in hopes of a deal like this falling into his lap. 

2 recs  |  Comment 29 comments |

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yea..

I really …REALLY hope they aren’t trading Swish.

I mean yea…if they are pursuing a Jurrjens or something like that…that’s a different story. I kind doubt it, cuz if I was asking for the Braves…WHY are you trading Jurrjens?

But c’mon, WHY (LOL!!) I gotta keep ’WHY"ing these ideas.

WTF are we trading what was so damn good.

And yea, big pass on any Braves pitcher not named Hanson or Jurrjens
I really…REALLY hope this aint true.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 19, 2009 7:30 PM EST reply actions  

Bay is better than Swisher I must say

wOBA is a better indicator of a player’s offensive prowness.

Swisher’s three-year wOBA: .361, .325, .375 (2009)
Career .353 / Postseason (71 AB) .155

Bay’s three-year wOBA: .326, .387, .397 (2009)
Career .384 / Postseason (49 AB) .384

I was never in the camp that Bay’s glovework is actually as bad as his defensive metrics have shown. Just like Mark Teixeira not being the below average defensive first baseman as his stats point out this past season.

Here is a pretty good article by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick suggesting that UZR/150 should be taken with a grain of salt.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 19, 2009 11:47 PM EST reply actions  

Does wOBA adjust for park?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

no

wOBA is similar to OPS, but it’s much more accurate as to how many runs, on average, you get for a particular play. OPS+ is the only park adjustment stat that I know of. Why there isn’t a wOBA+, I dunno.

by Wraithpk on Nov 20, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

The stat-heads are still working out the kinks

or consensus formulas for park-adjusted wOBA. There’s still a lot of debate of how it should be done properly.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 21, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he's "on the trade block"

so much as he could be had for the right price. Cash isn’t actively looking to trade him but if somebody wants to send over a young but high ceiling SS or OF prospect or a nice young reliever he’ll listen.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 20, 2009 1:20 AM EST reply actions  

I hope we keep Swisher

He’s not a great player by any means, but he has good at bats, he hits for power and provides a threat at the bottom of the order. Perhaps more importantly he really seemed to lighten up a Yankee clubhouse that had been dead for the past 8 years. Of course you move him if some great deal comes along but definitely don’t trade him for the sake of trading him.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 20, 2009 2:33 AM EST reply actions  

Why should Swisher be untradeable?

He fit nicely in the lineup, but the idea is to sell high on a player, which is the exact opposite of what the White Sox did with him in the offseason.

If they can get value in return for Swisher, why wouldn’t they consider it? He’s not untouchable.

by New York Sports Jerk on Nov 20, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

+1

Imagine how awesome it would be to be able to say, Cashman turned Wilson Betemit into a quality #3 pitcher.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

yup

I agree.

Its just, while you can say Swih may tail off this year…what if that guy they trade for turns into a Carl Pavano and/or their RF position is in shambles.

Yes, if they have a deal for Swisher they should make it. Whoever they trade for tho….their RF position better be set with an equal caliber RF.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 20, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Nick right where he is

Bay has the personality of a flag pole. Since this isn’t MLB The Show, personality actually accounts for something.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Nov 20, 2009 6:13 PM EST reply actions  

I agree

Bay is not on my list. Swisher brings some chemistry to the clubhouse.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 20, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't break up a good thing..

Swish was great with the bat, in the clubhouse and will probably be better in the field next year.

by RuBiCaNT on Nov 20, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions  

This better be a rumor....

I bet money swisher goes bonkers next year…I have never seen a player who actually publicly shows his appreciation for being a yankee…nothing scripted, nothing practiced…and he is productive…

I say fucc that rumor…

-Announcemen Forwarded To The Following: Boston Blowsox, New York Pets, Philadelphia Phonies, And Any Other Team Who Ain't The With The Empire.................

Getcha' Fuccin Rings Up........

by NYYWinsRings27 on Nov 21, 2009 12:15 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I agree

I love Swish. He’s a great Yankee, and was very productive this year for the Yanks. I think he’s only going to get better. They don’t need a star at every single position. Swisher is a solid, productive, young player. Hang on to him.

And I like your signature, although I prefer New York Muts instead of Pets. Thats just me though.

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 21, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Forgotten stat

Swish brings a solid bat, good power numbers, and pretty decent fielding. You forgot to mention the lights-out relief pitching.

by Sgurd0187 on Nov 23, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

Haha, +1.

'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin

by NYSteelersFan4 on Nov 23, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

he has a career ERA of 0, this guy should be the heir to Rivera.

by Wraithpk on Nov 24, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Nick Swisher a Yankee?

You gotta be kidding me, maybe the KING of Choking! way over priced, if they can unload him it would be to there benefit. The best he’ll ever do is a wanna-be!!!!

by kskinn on Nov 26, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

uhhh, overpriced?

we paid him 5M for a 3.5 WAR, worth 15.9M. Not to mention we got him for Wilson Betemit. He’s way underpriced if anything.

by Wraithpk on Nov 26, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

yea...

YOU never watched the Yanks this year!

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 26, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah!

i just hated seeing him go up there in clutch situations and popping up to the infield. one redeeming fact his double and hm. run, still not worth keeping around.

by kskinn on Nov 26, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

He did better than Cano

one postseason is too small a sample size to say anything about a player. In the same way we aren’t going to trade Swisher’s undervalued contract, we also aren’t going to trade Cano for having a bad postseason.

by Wraithpk on Nov 27, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

?

I’d like to see the team that gives him 15M, see what kind of return they get for those big$$$$.

by kskinn on Nov 26, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

if they paid him 15m for this season...

they would have gotten what they paid for.

the Yanks got 3x the value of his contract out of Swisher.

You want those players on your squad.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 26, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Why are you responding to this?

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Nov 30, 2009 3:25 AM EST up reply actions  

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