I can has Left Fielder?

So, we need a Left Fielder.  So many choices, so little time, so much money (thanks popa George!).  Let's take a statistical and financial look at our choices.

1.  Put Gardner in center, and Melky in left.  I have a feeling Gardner is going to win the CF job anyway, so the debate is Melky in Left, or as our 4th OF if we sign someone else.

cost:  $1.4M (what we payed him last year.  This isn't extra salary, though, since he'll be on the team either way)

production:  4 year averages:  wOBA: .316,  UZR/150: -.9,  WAR: .975. 

This is obviously the cheap option.  We would only win 1 more game over a replacement-level player.  Pros:  Melky is young and durable, and could get better.  He also wouldn't cost us anything extra.  Cons:  This would make our outfield offense pretty weak.  We need more production from the corner outfielders.  Melky's 1 WAR is worth 2.2M, so we would actually be underpaying him by .8M.

2.  Resign Damon.

cost:  9-12M (based on rumors of what they will ask for)

production:   wOBA: .363,  UZR/150: -4.8,  WAR:  2.925

Option 2 is an offense upgrade over option 1, but a defensive downgrade.  Overall, Damon in left nets us 2 more wins on the season, which with the conversion of 1 WAR = 2.2M, puts his suggested salary at 4.4M above Melky.  Since Melky is still under team control, he doesn't make what he's worth, which means we would overpay for those 2 wins by 4-6M.

3.  Sign Jason Bay.

cost:  16-18M (also based on rumors)

production:  wOBA: .398,  UZR/150: -7.7,  WAR:  4.575

For Bay, I omitted his 2007 season because he was injured, which clearly effected his play that year.  His career suggests those numbers were a fluke.  So, Bay is an upgrade over Damon offensively, but a big downgrade defensively.  Overall, he is worth about 1.5 wins more than Damon, which is worth 3.3M in salary, putting his worth at 7.7M more than Melky.  His worth is about 10.5M, so we would overpay for his 3.5 wins over Melky by 5.5-7.5M.

4.  Sign Matt Holliday.

cost: 18-22M (based on the fact that he turned down 16M from the Cards, and would probably have a similar contract to Teixeira if we were to sign him)

production:  wOBA: .411,  UZR/150:  6.5,  WAR:  6.05.

Holliday is a good offensive upgrade over Bay, and a HUGE defensive upgrade.  While Bay has been one of the worst outfielders in the game the past 4 years, Holliday has been one of the better ones.  Holliday would cost 2-4M more than Bay, and his 1.5 more wins puts his value at 3.3M more, which is within that range.  Overall, Holliday's worth is about 14M, so we would overpay for his 6 wins by about 4-8M.

Economical values:

Melky: 1.4M / win

Damon: 3.07 - 4.1M / win

Bay:  3.5 - 3.9M / win

Holliday:  3 - 3.6M / win

Conclusions:

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Melky will not be the starting Left Fielder, the Yankees are going to get someone.  Of the top 3 candidates, Damon is the cheapest, but also the least effective.  Along with that, he's 37 years old, so he will most likely perform worse than his 4 year averages.  Holliday and Bay, on the other hand, are 29 and 31, respectively, so we could sign either to a longer deal without much fear of decline soon.  Holliday would be the most expensive, but would provide us 3 more wins for the season over Damon, which in the AL East can be the difference between winning the division and not making the playoffs.  I think it's pretty evident that Bay is not the best choice.  We would pay him almost as much as Holliday, but he's not as good of a player.  In terms of what we're getting for what we're paying for, Holliday is actually the best value.  So my suggestion, save the 18 - 24M it would cost to resign both Damon and Matsui, and use that money for Holliday.  That frees up the DH spot for Posada and the other starters when they need a little rest, and gives us Teixeira, A-Rod, and Holliday for our 3-4-5 spots.  That would be the most devastating 3-4-5 combo in baseball by far.