CHONE Projections for Hitters

by jscape2000 on Nov 16, 2009 4:00 PM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

H/t to Beyond the Box Score

Let's check out the Yankees' starting lineup shall we (under contract division)?

Player	Pos	Age	G	AB	R	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	R150
Rodriguez, Alex	H	34	130	485	94	136	24	1	34	106	11	3	69	111	10	564	0.280	0.381	0.544	35
Teixeira, Mark	H	30	146	564	92	162	38	2	34	112	1	0	71	107	8	643	0.287	0.375	0.543	33
Swisher, Nick	H	29	150	516	88	128	30	1	27	80	1	1	91	132	6	613	0.248	0.367	0.467	19
Cano, Robinson	H	27	147	570	80	173	43	3	19	83	3	4	28	63	4	602	0.304	0.341	0.489	14
Jeter, Derek	H	36	143	583	91	172	30	2	14	69	16	5	58	89	8	649	0.295	0.367	0.425	10
Posada, Jorge	H	38	111	382	50	97	22	1	16	64	1	0	47	92	4	433	0.254	0.342	0.442	7
Cabrera, Melky	H	26	151	511	70	145	31	3	12	69	11	4	47	63	4	562	0.284	0.349	0.427	6
Gardner, Brett	H	26	116	345	58	92	16	7	3	29	28	7	43	68	3	391	0.267	0.353	0.380	-1

Those numbers look pretty satisfactory to me, with a few caveats:

I have my doubts about Melky putting up a .349 OBP. If he could do that I think he'd win the CF job outright.

For what must be the one thousandth year in a row, CHONE figures Jeter will put up a batting average below .300. Take the over.

I also don't like the game totals for Posada. While he only played 111 games this season, if the Yankees stick with their play (and I think they should) and refuse to sign a DH only player, Jorge should see closer to 150 games, catching 100-120 and DHing the rest.

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I take this all with a grain of salt

Because if you scroll further down the list, they project Shelley Duncan to hit .257/.340/.512.

Duncan is 30 years old, and if there was any reasonable chance of him hitting like that over 377 at-bats, he would have been in the majors five years ago.

by 3460kuri on Nov 16, 2009 4:36 PM EST reply actions

.852 OPS, 27 HR, 74 RBI!!!

Hideki WHO?

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 16, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

Yea I dunno about this.

I’ve seen no regression at all from A-Rod and Jeet, and this says that they will have a lot of regression.

I agree on Melky too. I think he could have a .349 OBP as just sort of a natural progression type thing, but I doubt it.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 4:44 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm..

I’m not so sure about the Posada numbers (16 HRs, 64 RBI and .254 BA). I think we’ll see more out of him. I see him splitting time with Cerveli and doing a fair amount of DH.

I agree with 3460kuri on Shelly Duncan. That ship has sailed.

by coops2001 on Nov 16, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions

A-Rod will get just 34 HR?

And play in just 130 games? How many days off do they think he’s going to need? He hit 30 HR this year while missing more than that and playing hurt!!! There’s no way, unless he gets hurt, that the Yankees are going to give him over 30 days off, and there’s no way, again unless he gets hurt, that he’s going to regress that much.

Jeter too. Did they watch his season this year? Why do they think he’s going to decline so much? I saw no signs of declining this year. Why should he start?

I don’t agree with most of these. Melky is going to have a .349 OBP? That would be remarkable if he could do that.

They underrated Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Cano (he had a better season than those projections this year, and he’s still getting better), and maybe even Teixeira (I see no reason why his HR would decrease). They overrated Melky. I’m not sure about Gardner. I agree about their projections for Swisher, but I really don’t agree with the rest of them.

We’ll see how the season plays out though. I really don’t care how the players do, as long as it ends in the Yankees 28th World Championship.

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 16, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions

They seem BS to me

.304 for Cano after .320 this year? 19 HR’s?
.295 for Jeter after .334 this year?
A-ROD with 34 HR’s and a .280 average when he had a higher average in an injury-hampered season?

"We're only going to score 17 points?"

by Edgware on Nov 16, 2009 5:28 PM EST reply actions

This is Stupid

by Ron L on Nov 16, 2009 7:44 PM EST reply actions

Is there a way to see last season's?

Just so I can get a read on how accurate this thing is, although all the numbers look very conservative, maybe intentionally so.

by Peppered on Nov 16, 2009 7:51 PM EST reply actions

2009: http://www.baseballprojection.com/NYA2009.htm

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 16, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'll be suprised if Posada plays in 145+ games

whether there is a full-time DH or not. He’s going to need more days off resting on the bench.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 16, 2009 9:59 PM EST reply actions

Shelley Duncan?

They do know that the Shelley Duncan that plays for the Yankees is still the same Shelley Duncan right?

This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons.

by Lord Duggan on Nov 17, 2009 12:52 AM EST reply actions

Arod and jeter are consistent .300 hitters. Meanwhile Tex i can see hitting 40 hrs, since he;s gonna have protection this whole year. I seriosuly see jorge hitting only 16 hrs

by lololol on Nov 17, 2009 1:23 AM EST reply actions

I hit the little "X" in the right hand corner

as soon as I saw 17 HR for Cody Ransom.

I’d assume they’re talking about AAA for players like Shelley Duncan and Eric Duncan….but I mean damn…Cody Ransom?

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 17, 2009 7:20 AM EST reply actions

The trouble with projections like this one are that with small sample sizes to extrapolate from, the marginal players are hard to project. That’s why I didn’t bother to include them in my post.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 17, 2009 8:05 AM EST up reply actions

Here's a different set of projections:

These are from Bill James, as posted on fangraphs.com.

Player Games HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
Rodriguez: 145 37 104 .294 .400 .550 .950 .406
Teixeira: 156 36 121 .300 .395 .559 .954 .406
Jeter: 156 15 72 .317 .388 .444 .832 .366
Cano: 161 20 87 .309 .347 .489 .836 .359
Swisher: 150 26 80 .247 .365 .467 .832 .362
Posada: 116 18 74 .276 .372 .467 .839 .365
Cabrera: 144 11 62 .278 .341 .406 .747 .330
Gardner: 104 3 28 .277 .368 .375 .743 .347
Damon: 149 17 70 .278 .355 .430 .785 .348
Matsui: 139 23 88 .282 .367 .475 .842 .366

and for kicks and giggles:
Matt Holliday: 155 27 109 .316 .391 .531 .922 .396

by Wraithpk on Nov 17, 2009 10:48 AM EST reply actions