The Reds will still be desperate to dump Arroyo in June or July. The Yankees have younger, cheaper, and most importantly, BETTER options at this point.

I would like to see them enter 2010 with a rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Joba, and Hughes, with Chad Gaudin as a long man/spot starter, and Ian Kennedy next in line for regular work if somebody gets hurt. I’d also like to see the Yankees resign Chien Ming Wang, who could be back by midseason.

That’s eight starting pitchers. If four of them don’t pan out, then take on a salary dump. But only then.

I don’t see the Yankees brass placing THAT much expectation and emphasis on Joba/Hughes in the 4-5 spot without quality back-up. Don’t forget, we were hoping for the exact same thing in 2008, and we had Kennedy in the mix too, and how that quickly blew up in our faces.

I like Joba/Hughes as much as the next guy, and expect them to have very good careers, and they should EVENTUALLY be able to perform competently in the 4-5 spots and above…. but.. I just can’t see them being Plan A, without an adequate Plan B just in case things go awry.

If Joba can duplicate his post-ASB form for those few starts, and extend it, we’ll be getting an AJ type starter, without the control issues. He may not have the off-speed stuff that AJ has, but he’s going to pitch 6-7innings, and get 6-7 K/s per outing. That is going to make for a very decent 4th starter. We’re in awesome shape if he could put those numbers up in the No.4 spot. (But… I STILL believe we should have him as the top set-up guy and groom him for Mo’s replacement. A guy throwing in the 96s out of the pen is just going to overpower too many guys to not consider him closer material… but since the Yankees think he’s a starter, we’ll go with that.)

Now, Hughes really didn’t do so well last year in the starter role. He was lights out as a reliever for the most part, pre-playoffs. It is impossible to look at his relief success and automatically assume he’s “turned over a new leaf” and is all of a sudden going to be a strong starter. With addition to the additional innings he has to pitch, he also has to go through the lineup multiple times…. and he can’t go out and attack the batters with his best stuff. (Like Joba’s fastball dropping from 95-96 down to 91-92). I honestly expect a very mediocre transitional season for Hughes. (and even though he was a starter at AAA, that’s the AAA).

We really should go after a low-risk high-reward guy, and have Hughes taking the off start he will inevitably get. I know this causes problems because he’s not pitching on a set schedule, but I’d take Ben Sheets or Rich Harden’s half season (Because of inevitable injury risk) , coupled with Wang for half a season and then seeing Hughes slowly transition into a starter.

We’re defending champions dammit, we shouldn’t have to rush Hughes and potentially derailing his performance.

As for Cinci, I guess we won’t have any need for Brandon Phillips, so that leaves one of their starters, Arroyo and Harang. Neither have enough upside to justify their contracts, and are bound to get shelled in the tough AL East. (Haven’t we seen enough of Arroyo to know that?).
Sheets/Harden is much easier to justify, fully knowing the injury risk. A reachable, incentive-laden deal is the way to go.