Why the Yankees should NOT trade for Roy Halladay.
by Wraithpk on Nov 15, 2009 10:02 PM EST
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I know there are a lot of opinions going back and forth on this, but I want to specify some reasons why I think this would be a bad idea for the Yankees.
1. We don't absolutely need him to win the World Series. We proved that this year. We can assume that Pettitte will be resigned, which I think is a good bet, and we'll get Wang back about halfway through the year. If we assume that neither Hughes nor Joba have a breakout year this year, and that Wang never returns to his pre-foot injury form, we still know that we can win it all with our top 3 starters.
2. He would cost a butt-load of prospects in a trade. We would definitely lose either Hughes or Joba, maybe both, and we would most likely lose 2 out of AJAX, Montero, and Romine. We're talking about one or two potential quality starting pitchers, our center fielder of the future, and two great catching prospects, one of whom is being compared at the plate to Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez when they came up in the minors (Montero).
3. We would be paying for what Halladay was, and not necessarily what he will be. This, of course, is always a concern when signing a free agent or making a trade. Halladay has been great over his career, so as I specified in point #2, he will cost a lot. The problem is that he will be 33 next year. Halladay has been very consistent over his career, but the law of averages suggests he will begin to decline sometime soon. This starts happening to pitchers, on average, at around 30-33 years of age. Halladay is hitting the end of that average, which suggests there's a good chance he will begin to decline. Sure, he might still be a very good pitcher until he's 40, but he's not going to maintain his dominance forever, he will slowly decline. Thus, my point: we will end up paying for how great he's been the past 6 or 7 years, but get someone less than that. If you want to know exactly what I'm afraid of, see the Randy Johnson trade.
4. We might have better options. Next year, there will be a slew of good free agent pitchers. First of all, Halladay himself will be a free agent, unless he gets traded and signed to an extension. If we wait until next year, we might be able to get him without having to give up our prospects. I personally feel more confident about going for younger pitchers of similar quality, like Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, or Brandon Webb. I feel we would get more years out of one of those guys.
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Arguably the best pitcher in baseball
Yet not worth the prospects for potentially a one-year rental. Better to look him up when he hits FA next year.
There is no
one-year rental. No GM is going to do a deal unless it includes an extension on Doc’s contract.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 15, 2009 10:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I can't see the Yankees
turning a potential hot-shot prospect into Cabrera/Ramirez any time soon. They haven’t been able to do that in close to 15 years. The Yankees eat their young. It’s just a part of playing in NY. Had the Yankees traded Joba and/or Hughes to Minnesota for Santana, would either/or have turned into a top-of-the-rotation guy? Maybe. Chances are a lot higher when you take them out of the NY fishbowl.
Look at Karsten in Pittsburgh. What would have happened to him had he stayed in NYC? He would be Alfredo Aceves. Maybe. He could be pitching next to Kei Igawa still.
To realize the potential of Joba or Hughes, it may be in their best interests to send them elsewhere. If you’re getting three years of dominant pitching for a six-year contract for Halladay in return, you have to weigh what it takes to break out in NY. Maybe Montero turns into something special. He certainly looks like it right now. But we’ve got Romine right behind him. And there’s even odds that Montero turns into a journeyman catcher, or a DH.
My two cents.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 15, 2009 11:06 PM EST reply actions
Karstens?
It’s not fair to compare Joba/Hughes to Jeff Karstens. Joba and Hughes, if they totally bust as starters will still be dominant relievers/future closers. Jeff Karstens is an awful major league pitcher and is only in the majors because he’s on the Pirates.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 16, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, Karstens was a bad example
I wasn’t comparing him to Joba and Hughes. Clearly, Karstens will never rise above a # 4 or # 5 starter. Point was, he would never even get that shot in NY.
And the larger point was that, in the last decade, the Yankees have not done a good job developing farm talent into major contributors on the MLB roster. After making a concerted effort to try that route last year, the organization panicked last off-season and shelled out nearly $500M in free agent contracts.
I recall at some point in the Joba is a starter/reliever debate, somebody trotted out Santana’s #s from a similar point in his career. Their point was, Joba was not far off from Santana’s career path. The difference was Santana had the chance to pull it together in Minnesota.
Pettitte, Jeter, Posada, Bernie, Mo: Those are the last consistent stars to emerge from the Yankee farm system and become major contributors on the MLB roster. And they all have two things in common: They were not nurtured by Brian Cashman, and they did not emerge in an environment where the pressure to win right now is immense.
Cash has yet to demonstrate he can grow the next generation of Yankees from the farm system. Perhaps he only needed to grab control from the Steins. And I do think he has moved the organization in the right direction since doing so. But there’s a lot more pressure on the Yankees to produce today than there was when Jeter and company emerged in the 90s.
The Yankees have a nearly 40% revenue advantage over the next closest team (the Sox). To maintain that advantage, they need to continue to win. Right now. It has created an environment where the best talent for the Yankees often becomes trade bait. Can they gradually make the shift back towards a clear path from AAA to MLB for their best prospects? It definitely looks like they’re making headway. But given how much they’ve screwed up Hughes and Joba’s development, I remain skeptical.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
The Yankees lack of farm development...
is not due to an inadequacy of the development system itself. It’s due to the fact that over the past 10 years or so, the Yankees have traded almost every top-prospect they’ve had for established veterans. They’ve only recently stopped doing that, allowing guys like Cano, Hughes, Joba, Gardner, and Melky to get their chance. In the past, those guys would have been traded for veteran players before they got to the majors. Baseball as a whole is trending toward younger players, and the Yankee organization is beginning to follow suit.
I have always
thought the Yankee farm system was top-tier. We’ve grown a lot of MLB talent for other teams over the years. The question — still not yet answered — is whether we can do it for our own team.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
that with our great success, we usually have a tough time having blue-chip prospects fall to us. Guys like Brackman may or may not pan out, but the reason we got them was because he’s an injury risk.
The only team out of the major sports team, that could regularly do this with any success, may be the Detroit Red Wings. They commonly find great value in their picks, even though they are often 2nd, 3rd round picks, and they develop them in their system. You don’t see it in baseball, not in football, (especially not in basketball given the limited talent-pool).
No other perennial contenders can say the same. Red Sox? Prospects over-hyped. Mets? Well.. they’re just flat out incompetent. So, we can’t judge the Yankees prospect too harshly if they don’t pan out. Cashman has taken to keeping his prospects and not rashly trading for aging veterans. That’s a positive step to take, but we just won’t be getting a farm-system that is truly top-tier.
by Vancouverguy on Nov 16, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
The Yankees scouting system is as good as anybody's I think
And I agree that they grow as much farm-fed talent as anybody in baseball. The biggest problem the Yankees’ farm system has is that they bring their checkbook focus to minor league signings as well. You put a burden on guys like Brackman when you give them a 40-man spot upon signing, or on guys like Heatchott when you give them first-round money. It forces the organization to push them through the system before they’ve had enough seasoning in the minors.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
You left Cano off your list, and while I wouldn’t call Melky a star, the value of his production is maximized because he takes up very little payroll space.
One of the things the Yanks have done very well the last few seasons is built bullpens without shelling out big bucks to anyone but Mariano. Even if those guys are just flash in the pan (Edwar) if you can mix and match their hot and cold streaks (and ditch them when the league figures out how to ride the 1 trick pony), you can save your money for superstars
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Yup,
Cano and Wang are actually their signal successes, and their bullpen was strong this year. I was being a bit hyperbolic. But the reality is, the pressure to produce today is always going to make a turnaround like last off-season — from farm-bred focus to $450M-plus in free agent contracts — always a distinct possibility.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Lack of prospects
Though I agree the Yankees have done a bad job with Hughes and Joba so far I don’t think this is the reason we haven’t developed a lot of players the last 15 years. We just haven’t had high quality prospects. Who from the Yankee farm system has gone to another organization and become anything more than a mediocre player, other than Soriano who was already a star when we traded him? Nick Johnson? Juan Rivera? These guys are average at best.
Given the top 3 in the rotation and the strength of the offense we can live with Joba and Hughes struggling a bit as they learn to be starters.This is the perfect time to let them develop.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 16, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
I posted this
on the “why the Yankees should sign Halladay” thread, figured it’d be a good post here as well, if the discussion shifts to this location.
Source: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/11/12/2009-11-12_roy_halladay.html
Seems to me like Halladay has a say in his trade and probably (I would guess) would rather be traded to a playoff contending team like the Sox or Yankees rather than some middle tier team that might give the Jays a bunch of prospects but gives him less of a chance at winning a division or pennant or WS.
There’s one section that highlights some potential issues as to why the Yankees might be hesitant to sign Lackey, regardless of his performance last year. Mainly, regardless of his “ace” status, he’s had a lot of injury problems the last two years.
I’d say sell the farm for Halladay because he’s got a few upsides over every other starter out there:
1. He can make AJ better (AJ says Halladay is his mentor)
2. He can be a 3rd consistent quality starter with CC and Andy
3. He can make any of our younger starters better (if we keep Joba and/or Hughes)
4. If nothing else, he can continue to scare the crap out of the Red Sox instead of joining their ranks
Of course, we would all like to get Halladay for just money, even if we have to wait until the next offseason, but the reality is Cashman and/or the front office might not be willing to risk him going to the Red Sox if he can help our rotation in more ways than just being a good starter (or excellent starter). I’ve never seen any of our prospects play, but I’ve read many places that pitching and/or hitting in the minors is a world of difference from playing at the MLB level. Obviously our scouts and team execs and coaches know more than we do, so we can only hope they make the right decision and it doesn’t come back to bite us, especially in a playoff situation.
Addition for this thread:
I agree with LateInningRelief about the players not being able to reach their potential in NY but may be able to elsewhere. Not everyone is cut out for the limelight in NY. Not everyone is Derek Jeter (unfortunately). Going beyond just talking about the number of prospects (pitching/hitting/fielding) that we’ve seen in the last 9 years come and go (and how many of them really performed well for the Yankees? Cano and Cabrera?), look at the players that were already in the majors that were picked up in trades or as free agents that were good before they got to NY, not that great in NY, and were good or better when they left NY. That’s probably the same list we have in another thread as the decade’s worst Yankees.
To counter the first point, while we don’t “NEED” Halladay to win the World Series, there’s a reason the Yankees were the first team since the 1991 Twins to win a WS with a 3-man playoff rotation. Further, imagine how much better our entire season will be with another quality starter, which, sad to say, Hughes and Joba both have to prove they can be with no restrictions on innings/pitchcounts. Like I said above, Halladay seems to be a great clubhouse guy as well, and he could probably help AJ and the youngsters and make our overall pitching staff much better as a whole.
The only other pitcher that I could possibly see the Yankees trying to pick up is Cliff Lee, another buddy of someone already on our staff. The only problem is, he’s already signed an extension with Philly, and Philly has pockets deep enough to keep him if he wants to stay there. Heck, if he gives them the same quality starts for the next whole season that they got for just a few months this season, I see them doing everything they can to keep him. I think Beckett is over-used and may be put in the “injury-prone” category. King Felix will also be a hard fought FA signing and there’s no guarantee we’ll get him.
Trade - Yes
then lock him up to a 4 or 5 year deal. The guy has the work ethic of Jeter and has been ultra durable in addition to pitching successfully his entire career in the same division as our Yankees and the Sox. There is nothing to suspect that he will not pitch well for another 3 – 4 years at least. I like that he makes AJ better. I like that he is a non-controversial guy and I would have no problem giving up Hughes OR Chamberlain (not both) as part of a package for Roy.
Unfortunately,
locking him in is not an option. He probably won’t waive that no-trade unless he gets a very very big extension. It’s hardly fair to expect him to take another below-market value contract after taking 2 with Toronto. What would market value for his contract be? Probably close to 20M/ yr, 4-5 years, right?
I like the fact he can make our rotation look like this:
CC / Halladay/ AJ / Petitte/ Joba or Hughes (whoever’s left)
by Vancouverguy on Nov 16, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
he's not gonna do that.
He’ll got more dough on the open market, simply by being there and letting teams bid on him.
Yea, that’d probably be one of the only ways I’d consider a trade, but its probably as nil as a trade that Toronto doesn’t ask for Montero.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't have a problem giving up Hughes or Chamberlain
it’s Montero and AJAX that I wouldn’t want to give up, and the Jays would want at least one if not both of those guys to get him.
Prospects
Very few turn into the players they are hyped to be by scouts and talent evaluators for one reason or another.
you have to give them a chance, though...
Guys as good as Montero don’t come along often. We’re talking about Miguel Cabrera, Manny Ramirez, A-Rod type players. Guys that scouts in the minors rave about and say they are going to be special. Some guys tagged like that get injured and never come back the same, but if a player like that fully realizes their potential like the aforementioned players, they are perennial MVP candidates. THAT is what we have in Montero. The chance that he might realize that potential is enough to keep him.
Guys like Montero come along every year
Just in these threads over the last week, we’ve been discussing guys like Chapman, Strausberg and Brackman. Everybody’s raving about all of them.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
those are pitchers...
Montero is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, and he’s 19 years old. A guy expected to have the power to hit 40-50 HR’s a year is very rare. Especially from a CATCHER.
Okay then, just from jscape's discussion
this morning with Frankie Piliere: Eric Duncan and Ruben Rivera. I don’t have time to do more thinking/Googling right now. Point is, he’s 19 and could be the next A-Rod, or a journeyman catcher, or a total washout. Roy Halladay is if not the best, at least in the top 5 pitchers in the league, and he has another 3-4 productive years in him.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Eric Duncan and Ruben Rivera...
NEVER DID what Montero is doing.
NEVER!!!
lol…
But still, Duncan and Rivera were more potential types, as in what they did on the lower levels of pro-ball and in Duncan’s case..high school ball.
Montero RAKED!!!!!!!!!!!! in double A.
No, in no single way shape or form do players like Montero, who absolutely rake even in AA, come around every year.
Strasburg isn’t even at Montero’s certainty right now (whatever it is) cuz he faced college hitters and dominated.
AA is a higher class of ball than college (it has the best college hitters and developed high school players).
No, What this guy has done already is quite amazing. Only guys like has been mentioned, Manny Ramirez types, are the sort of natural hitter Montero is.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
He's a hitter with poor defense
The two things that win championships are pitching and defense. Man, we could have Halladay, and then sign the actual Manny Ramirez if we were so thirsty for another power bat, which in this lineup is almost redundant. Let’s say that all that upside turns out to come true. Even then I would trade him for Halladay.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
From what I've heard is
he’s a lot like Posada behind the plate. Think what you will of Jorge, but that’s not ‘poor’. That’s average. You don’t need a Molina behind the plate.
His bat projects to be better than Jorge’s too.
And the biggest reason they don;t have to trade Montero for Halladay is……..THEY DON’T HAVE TO!!!!
WHY would you go and do this trade with its not necessary? Andy’s probably gonna sign, so why would you go and trade the future of the team when you already have an ace, a very good #2, a very good #3, and 2 promising young pitchers (as well as whoever else they sign).
Would Halladay be nice? Yea. Is he necessary? No.
And did I just read power bat is redundant? Are you serious? The name of the game is to score runs. You can have your Jose Molina’s of the world, I’ll take a catcher with young Posada ability any day.
Over Halladay? No, but with the Yankees pitching staff? Absolutely I don’t give up Montero.
If we’re talking about a rotation without AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia? Then get Halladay at all costs. But its simply not necessary to go an trade a guy like Montero,.
Especially if there’s as good a chancet they end up signing him on the open market anyway next offseason.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I would take Jose Molina as starting catcher
backed up by Frankie Cervelli, if the rotation included:
CC
AJ
Doc
Andy
Joba/Hughes/CMW
Any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
might as well let the pitcher bat in his place and DH for him.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be down with that
with that rotation.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 7:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Plus
I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that Halladay is a free agent in 2010. Not gonna happen unless the Jays have developed significant holes in their heads.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Halladay's not gonna waive his no trade
cuz he knows he’ll get more on the open market as a FA.
There’s a better chance the Yanks wait for him to be a FA then they trade Montero for him.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
If pitching and defense wins championships
then why wasn’t Molina catching every game in the postseason? Why wasn’t he the starter?
Defense and pitching are essential, but you can’t win if you can’t score. And they’re projecting 45-55 HR a year from Montero. From a CATCHER! He’s not great behind the plate. He’s not awful either. He’s average. He’s a big guy, so he’s a little slow and he’s not all that great at throwing out baserunners. Neither is Posada, and the Yankees won with him 5 times! Montero is projected to be a far better hitter than Posada is. And you have to give him a chance. You don’t just give up a prospect who has a possibility of turning into an “A-Rod” like player when you don’t need too.
The Yankees are defending World Champions. They do not NEED Halladay. And I think it would be stupid to give up a player of Montero’s potential for someone they don’t need.
Lordy
This guy gets better and better the longer this debate rages. He’s 19. Let’s see what he does in AAA next year. Then maybe I’ll get excited. If he can hit a major league curveball, then I’m truly pumped.
Until then, the idea of “projecting” 45-55 HR/year for a 19 year-old who spent half the season in AA ball seems premature.
I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque
by LateInningRelief on Nov 16, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
yea..
I dunno where 45HR comes from…
But still, 25-30 HR from a catcher is nothing to sneeze at.
Also, if we’re talking about a pitcher with 3-4 years left on his deal, that’s also a different story (not that the Yanks couldn’t sign him).
Bottom line is the best option is both. They can wait on Halladay. Pettite will sign. I actualyl don’t expect a similar season out of Andy, so we’ll see what goes on towards the trade deadline.
And its WHY?? Why do they need to trade the future of their catching position (any team that has Cervelli or Molina as their catcher…would be looking for a Guy with Montero’s potential to replace him, I don’t care what you say a catcher who can’t hit is a liability).
There is NO NEEED to get an ace starter. Why do we have to make this big gigantic splash when its not necessary?
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
AA Can Suck It...
I don’t care what he did in AA or even in AAA. Hitting AA pitchers or AAA pitchers are not even close to what they are in MLB. Don’t get me wrong, Montero is a GREAT hitting prospect but let’s not put the cart before the horse and say he is the next Tony Gwynn or Barry Bonds…
Maybe not...
Gwynn or Bonds….But they went to college. They didn’t play against the competition that Montero does.
The point is, its not every year that a 19 year old kid plays in AA and does this. Its rare. Very rare.
Its even more rare that a 19 y/o does what he’s doing in AA and then busts in the bigs.
The Yanks will not rush him either, tho he may rush himself. So unlike many of these other players who are big time prospects and come up and suck, Montero’s not gonna be asked to be the face of the team to start off.
AA is not MLB, but AA stats, especially the ones he has put up, should not be taken lightly. They are pretty rare.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
I know what everyone is thinking on Montero
.that he could flame out and all. But when you look at what he’s done, this is not some ordinary 19 y/o bat.
I’ve seen him as the 2nd rated hitting prospect in all of baseball. The only one ahead of him is Jason Heyward on the Braves, who only is rated ahead cuz of the fact he’s an excellent defender (and Montero is more like a Posada behind the plate…)
Even for a Halladay, you gotta try your best to not trade Montero.
Its probably not gonna happen, but I’d like to see him get a cup of coffee this season, even as a DH for a couple games.
I highly doubt the Yanks trade Montero, unless we’re talking about King Felix (cuz he’s 23 and relatively cheap for the next couple years).
"It ain't over till its over"---
For everyone who doesn't know, here's what Montero has done so far in his career:
2007, 17 years old, Rookie league: .280/.366/.421 OPS = .786, wOBA = .373.
2008, 18 years old, A league: .326/.376/.491 OPS = .868, wOBA = .389.
2009, 19 years old, High-A league: .356/.406/.583 OPS = .989, wOBA = .446.
2009, 19 years old, AA league: .317/.370/.539 OPS = .909, wOBA = .407
They keep challenging him every year by moving him up, and he keeps raking. After being moved to AA halfway through the year, he ended up ranking second among catchers in wOBA to a 23 year old catcher in the Mets organization. Among all players in AA, he ranked 11th, and the youngest player ranked higher than him is 22, with the other 9 being from 23 to 27. In fact, no one else in the top 35 of wOBA was younger than 22. Most likely, he’ll start 2010 in AAA, assuming they move Cervelli to the bigs to be the backup. Can’t wait to see what this 20 year old kid does in AAA.
yea...
as he goes up, he gets better.
AA is not MLB, but you’d be an absolute fool to dismiss what he’s done.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 16, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
I like the team we have now
Sure, Halladay would be nice, but I’ve never been fond of the “one guy is worth all this” hype. We’ve got good talent already, we just need to work on what we have to make it better instead of going out and fishing for whoever’s hot at the moment. Joba (who to me is a reliever not a starter) and Phil (who hasn’t really shown me that he can start) have the talent, but need the skills. I think we should just make what we have even better.
If the only reason people want Halladay is because of a fear that the Red Sox might have him, then I say, let them have him. We’ve won without Halladay in the past and I’m certain that we can do so again. He’s no guarantee, just like all these minor leaguers. ;)
I'm worried about...
putting all our eggs in one basket. Reminds of when we went after Randy Johnson, and while he was pretty good in the regular season, he was a big factor in why we were one and done in the ALDS.
No
I agree with you. The Yankees should not trade for Halladay. If this was last season, when they had NO starters (literally NO starters. Wang was hurt, Pettitte and Mussina were contemplating retirement. 0-5 spots secured in the rotation), then I would consider doing it. But now? The Yankees rotation is in pretty good shape as it is. He’s not essentially needed. Yankees are World Champs without Halladay. Why give up your future for something you don’t need?
Would he be nice to have? Absolutely. But is it worth what he’s going to cost? I don’t think so. Halladay is 33 years old. He’s aging. He’s going to decline eventually. And if I have to see Montero and AJAX becoming stars or even just solid players on the Blue Jays while the Yankees have an aging pitcher locked up to yet another long term contract, I’m not gonna be happy.
Yankees are fine right now. Pitching isn’t the problem, especially if Andy comes back. The problem the Yankees need to look at is the outfield and DH, where only Swisher is a lock right now. Pitching? CC, A.J., Joba, Hughes (like it or not, they’re starters) are all locks. Andy is probably coming back. They can sign Lackey if they want. And they have Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves waiting in the wings if they need it.
The Yankees do NOT need another stud starting pitcher. There’s no sense to me in giving up these potential All-Stars for one.
Agreed but wonder
should we leave Aceves in BP or try in him the rotation? He’s probably do well in either.
Heard this same rant
About Ian Kennedy,Shane Spencer,Nick Johnson,Ricky Ledee,Drew Henson-he was bragged up more then Montero,Kevin Maas,Shelley Duncan,Alfonso Soriano=he is a little differant but ask the Cubs what they think of him and tell me you don’t still make the trade for Arod?Nobody talked about Cano until he got to the bigs because he wasnt great in the minors just good.Point being I will take a sure thing over a maybe anyday.I agree we don’t need him but it would go along way towards making the core 4s last yrs pretty dominant.Let the kid grow up elsewere and if he becomes Manny instead of Henson who was also a sure thing he can be reaquired.Speculation can either make you look great or really stupid,a team with 2 #1 starters can bring a dynasty.The captain and Jorge said it best when asked what the differance was from the dynasty until now,Finally got some pitching.
by cashman bashman on Nov 17, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions
exactly...
Finally got some pitching.
…..so why get Halladay? We got pitching already.
None of those guys you mentioned was as good as Montero in the minors. Not at 19 they were.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 17, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Henson didnt hit for shit in the minors.
Didn’t walk and struck out a ton. And stop with all these exaggerations. Shelly Duncan was NEVER hyped up as anything, neither was Ledee or Shane Spencer. Why you’re including Alfonso Soriano in this rant is beyond me dude is a 7x All Star. Sa,m with Nick Johnson, he’s been injured a lot but when healthy he has been a very good player. Halladay is great but will cost a significant amount of prospects and then will require a long term contract.
Wait a year and we can acquire Halladay for only money not prospects. Next year’s FA class is going to be full of elite talent.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 17, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
lol...
If Montero turned out to have a Soriano like career…I think the Yanks would be happier than pigs in shit.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 17, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
there’s gonna be a TON of pitchers available next year. Get one of them instead of emptying the farm for Halladay.
Cliff Lee is someone who would be nice to get next year.
Conveniently at the same time
CC can exercise his opt out clause.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 17, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
CC seems to enjoy NY though
I have a good feeling he’ll be here for the full length of his contract.
He might pull an A-Rod tho...
opt out just to re-up and get a longer deal.
He’d have to be a fool not to consider it.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 18, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
i'll believe it when i see it
every MLer who’s ever had an opt-clause has used it. there’ve only been a handful, but they’ve never not opted-out.
why wouldn't he?
He’s not gonna get $20 mll from anyone.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 18, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
except the Dodgers
I was just pointing out that it is possible that players would exercise their option.
Not sure about CC though. I think you’re right. He may consider opting out for more money or more years (probably just more years. He can’t possibly get more money than he’s getting now).
2010
Lee and Hernandez will be signed to extensions before then. Halladay could be too.
You never know.
Lee might decide it is in his best interest to hit free agency (which it certainly would be).
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 17, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Hernandez
would be smart to not sign an extension. He’s gunna get huge money when he’s eligible to become a FA.
and i'm sure
his agent is telling him just that. whatever Seattle offers him, the Yanks, Mets, Sox might offer double.
WHY
would Hernandez sign an extension? I’m not even sure Lee would either.
WHY would they? Are these guys that loyal to their squads that they’d risk potentially $20+ million that they’d get on the open market?
I’d think that’s why it was so tough to trade Halladay, cuz most teams would offer more if they could get a window to sign Halladay, which he smartly would refuse.
Why pigeon hole yourself to one team when you can wait till your a FA and get the big bucks?
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 18, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Lee,
IS the only one who would probably sign an extension, just because the Phillies can actually afford the type of FA numbers he’s looking at.
Hernandez would probably hit Free Agency ASAP, and if you’re his agent, you’re probably looking at a 5mil+ payday.. (Assuming 5% commission).
No way in hell Halladay signs an extension, unless he gets traded. And if we don’t trade for him, maybe only 2-3 other teams can take him.
by Vancouverguy on Nov 19, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
before you compare
former prospects to Montero, please check their MiLB stats (and ages).
Jesus’ stats, through the tender age of 19, are .325/.379/.509. that’s crazy good. and Trenton is an insane pitcher’s park. if not for missing the last month with a hand injury, he would’ve been BA’s MiLB Player of the Year.
finally, we won the WS without Halladay. we don’t need him. sure, i’d love to have him, but not for Montero. hughes/Joba and Ajax, maybe, but not jesus.
Heh, nah its only like 407 or so.
But it is right next to a river and the breeze often blows off the water and into the field killing fly balls. It’s also pretty freakin cold in the first couple months of the season.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 18, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'm now sold
on not going after Halladay and trading the farm for him.
After reading this thread and the other thread, I can see the reasoning behind waiting until the next offseason and pick him up then. Plus, I’d love to see another Yankee team just like the one in the mid-90s start to emerge in the next decade with these prospects hopefully performing to the level of which they are capable. That was my favorite element of the 1996-1998 WS wins for the Yankees, many homegrown players that contributed at the highest level and balanced with the solid performance of veterans produced great seasons and great championships.
Even if the Red Sox are interested, they’d have to include an extension with which Halladay is agreeable. So, even if he goes there, he might still be a FA next November. Cliff Lee will probably do the same after next season. Those are both classy guys that I think would be great in Pinstripes, especially if/when Pettite retires and we need a solid #3 in the rotation.
not to mention...
even if the Red Sox get Halladay, they will most likely lose Becket next year. It’ll be hard to keep both of them signed for the kind of money they’ll want.
+1.
Screw what the Red Sox do.
The only thing I’d be worried on them doing is getting a Adrian Gonzalez…or worse yet, if the Cardinals are real stingy in a few years..and they manage to get Albert Pujols.
Yea…that’s the only way I worry about the Pissants.
Don’t let 2004 and 2007 fool you. They’re still aka “Century of Fail”.
"It ain't over till its over"---
by FreeBradshaw on Nov 19, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care what the do Red Sox either
but I was just making the point about Halladay’s possible availability if he was traded to a team other than the Yankees before his FA next fall.
It’s possible he hates the Red Sox organization as well and would rather play for the Yankees and would block any trades to any team not based in the Bronx. (It’d be nice, wouldn’t it?)
I can’t find the exactly source, but I did read that Halladay has a no-trade clause and can block any trade he doesn’t like (team wise) even if he doesn’t want to stay in Toronto. He probably has a list of teams he’d like to go to and what it would take money-wise to play for the teams (based on how much he’d want to go to a specific team).
Halladay's NTC
He said he would waive it to a bunch of teams, BoSox included…
On the fence
MLB Post: If you’re looking for pitching, you can choose from starters Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Randy Wolf, Pettitte, Jon Garland, Justin Duchscherer, Joel Pineiro, Brad Penny, Kelvim Escobar, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano and maybe even Randy Johnson.
Yanks will look at all angles – mostly what teams have thrown in their chips to R.H. and J.L. R.H. isn’t out there in the market so to speak yet, so he isn’t a concern right now. If J.L. is going back tot he Angles, then no biggie. I really doubt he will stay, and if the BSox make an offer, then you can bet the bank the Yanks will make an offer as well. If even to raise the cost of him so as to hurt their spending for other players later.
The next angle will be cost and what we already have. I really doubt they are going to throw a lot of money out there to get a top prospect pitcher. That being said, there are some others on that list above that would fit in very nicely at a much lesser cost, and being on a winning team would boost that pitchers numbers. I’d take any of these below and sign them 3-4 year for under half of J.L. or R.H.
J Pineiro STL 15 12 3.49 214 IP 27 BB 105 SO
J Washburn DET 9 9 3.78 176 IP 49 BB 100 SO
R Wolf LAD 11 7 3.23 214 IP 58 BB 160 SO
B Sheets MIL 13 9 3.09 198 IP 47BB 158 SO
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