The Hughes Rules: the 3 Step Plan

by jscape2000 on Nov 10, 2009 3:00 PM EST in Analysis Comment 7 comments

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

"I just hope Cash listens to jscape's suggestions."

No, I have no idea how the Yanks will handle it. But here's my hope:

1) Make Hughes win his spot out of Spring Training (which I think he will).

Gaudin, Mitre, Aceves, Chamberlain, IPK, Nova, Kontos, McAllister, even Igawa. If he's not one of the 5 best guys in Tampa, he goes into the mix in the bullpen or down to Scranton where he can start and have his innings closely monitored. He can then be the first to the rotation in the event of injury or ineffectiveness.

2) Let him pitch to his MLB career high (86) and then move him to the pen so his innings can be managed.

Joba was solid (though not brilliant) up to and just past his previous career high (110IP, 3.58ERA, 1.40 WHIP), and he was putrid beyond that (46.2IP, 7.52 ERA, 1.89 WHIP). The plan needs to be to make those 'learning' innings as low leverage as possible. The prospect of a late season return by Wang plus whoever is effective from the supporting cast listed in Step 1 should give the Yanks the depth next season to handle Hughes more gently than they handled Joba last season.

3) Shut him down if he has a Joba-esque September.

No command, no confidence, no reason to be on the mound.

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agreed on all points

I would like to add the observation that Joba only went down in quality when they started limiting his innings/messing with his rest late in the season. Before that, he was doing very well post ASB.

I feel confident about Joba for next year, and I think Hughes will develop the same way and be a quality starter for us in some fashion, even if only to warm up Wang’s spot until he returns.

by phonty on Nov 10, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hughes & Joba

I think Hughes and Joba are two different types of pitchers. Hughes is much smoother and has better secondary pitches. I think he should be at least a spot starter and possibly #4 (my guess is Gaudin #5 unless both Pettitte and Lackey or Halliday come on board). Remember that Hughes has more of a history as a starter with SWB and may take more easily to longer outings. No short rest under any circumstances!

by logiet on Nov 10, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hughes rules

Two things … Hughes needs to work the cutter. He was getting hit very hard in the playoffs because he had gotten away from his cutter. Perhaps he didn’t have the confidence, or he was fatigued, or the command had slipped. Whatever the reason, he was throwing his 94 mph straight-as-a-freakin’-arrow four-seamer and it was getting tattooed.

When that happened, his entire demeanor changed. He went from having big, brass balls on the hill to a guy that looked castrated and scared. Now if I lost my balls I’d be scared too, but for Phil to be successful he needs to also toughen his mound presence—especially when things are going awry.

As for innings, I don’t think they need to treat him, or will treat him with the same kid gloves as Joba. For one Phil has thrown far more innings as a starter in the minors and is more geared for the rigors of a starter than Joba.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 10, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hughes is not Joba

Hughes has a career of minor league starts. He will pitch much more than 86 innings next year.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on Nov 10, 2009 9:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Minors + Majors

Hughes
05 86
06 146
07 37+72
08 35+34
09 19+86

Joba
07 88+24
08 0+100
09 0+157

It’s worth remembering that Hughes and Joba are the same age.
Hughes is 3 years removed from his high of 146, and according to everything we know about IP and injury, minor league innings are not equal to major league innings.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 10, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If they let Joba

throw 157 innings this year after only pitching 100 last year you don’t think that they will let Hughes pitch 165 innings next year?

I think that Hughes is a full member of the rotation if he makes it. Getting 200 innings from your starters implies that they were pretty darn good. I don’t see that happening with Hughes. If he was in the rotation for the full season I could see him eating up 165 innings. If he does way better than I expect then sure ship him off to the bullpen.

But I think there is something substantially wrong with assuming that a bullpen inning is equivalent to a starter inning. I think the most stress would be caused by a high leverage situation at the end of the ballgame when a starter was already tired. 2nd most stress would be a high leverage situation when a reliever was fresh from the bullpen, and least stressful would be situations where the starter is in control.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on Nov 11, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And I hope they treat him like a 5th starter

ie skip him or push him back when off days sugggest. Joba seemed a little Mussina ish in terms of needing a routine.

I hope Phil can be more flexible.

We have a lot of arms. With Aceves (who I like a lot) and all the others we can afford to be carefull with everyones health. Resign Pettitte and keep him fresh and healthy too.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Nov 11, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs