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Why the Yankees should sign Aroldis Chapman

Photo

The Cuban flamethrower is looking to join a major league team. As long as he doesn't require a ML deal, the Yankees should go after him.

First I'll mention the cons:

His control (or lack thereof) - in 118.1 innings last season in the Cuban National League, he walked 64 batters (fifth most) and had 14 wild pitches (the most).

Age - this is a pro and a con. He's only 22 years old, so he's rather unrefined and lacks any secondary pitches more than a get-me-over slider. Even throwing the kind of heat he does, if he can't throw another pitch for strikes, he won't be effective.

However, the pros far outweigh the cons, especially considering the Yankees' situation:

(follow the jump for video)

Star-divide

Potential - Chapman has the upside of a Randy Johnson or CC Sabathia. He has that much talent. It's one thing to reach 95 MPH as a lefty, but 100 puts him in elite category. Even with a mediocre secondary pitch, he would be a very effective pitcher. These guys don't come around too often. It didn't work with Igawa, Contreras and Irabu, but did with El Duque and Matsui. Chapman is no Igawa, in which there were questions about his 'stuff' being good enough to retire ML hitters - that's not a problem with the Cuban southpaw.

Age - like I wrote above, this is a pro and a con. Because he is so young, he can work his way up through the farm system. You couldn't do that with Igawa or some other mid-late 20's prospect. Chapman is young enough that he can polish his game and still break into the majors in his early-mid 20's. There are certainly a lot of pros to signing John Lackey (31) or Randy Wolf (33) instead, but we'd be paying for their past, not their future.

The draft - Chapman is an international free agent, so he's obviously exempt from the ML free agent compensation system (the Yanks wouldn't give up a pick for him, unlike with Lackey or Wolf). He's also exempt from the amateur draft; because the Yankees never get a top 15 pick, they have to take players with higher risk. They can never select an 'ultra-talent' like Joe Mauer, Ken Griffey, Jr. or Stephen Strasburg. If Chapman was a college pitcher, he would go in the top 10, no question. The Yanks can get one of those 'ultra-talents' without hoping and praying he falls to the bottom of the first round.

Money - like the way Boston's front office excused their $51 million posting fee for Dice-K, if Chapman can be signed to a bonus-heavy contract (instead of a large salaried one), it would prevent his contract from affecting the payroll, and hence any luxury taxes. It would also make him more tradeable should he turn into a pumpkin.

Add in that lefties tend to fare better at Yankee Stadium and it makes his signing even more sensible.

If he turns into a left-handed A.J. Burnett, we should be very happy. But he could turn into CC Sabathia or Randy Johnson (not the one we know - the one that pitched for Seattle and Arizona: the first ballot Hall of Famer).

(Check out the pitch at 2:58. He strikes out the batter with a 100-MPH heater and it nearly rips the catcher's glove off his hand.)

Poll
Should the Yanks sign Aroldis Chapman?
Whatever it takes!
262 votes
Only for a reasonable deal
430 votes
Eh, let another sucker overpay for him
138 votes

830 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 16 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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YO!!

100mph fastballs don’t lie.

Control…yea. Dude’s young. I know you alls don’t like cussin….but that SHIT IS NASTY!

The potential is there. Whatever it takes? Meh..I wouldn’t go that far. But I mean the stuff this kid has, even he manages to become a closer (Ooohhh yea!!! one of them!?).

I say do it. They’re the Yankees. Cash is as good as money you know……

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 10, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

Also...

gotta say Travis, thanks for this video, really get a good look at A- rolls (boom).

I gotta say also…that motion looks Randy Johnson esque.

"It ain't over till its over"---

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 10, 2009 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

Brien Taylor

And that’s why I don’t back up the cash truck for this guy. Offer a contract equivalent to a top 10 talent in the draft, fine – if nothing else it bids up the price the BoSox or Mets pay. But even if he had control and had another decent pitch, there is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect of pitchers.

by d_c_guy on Nov 10, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

+1

They should probably figure that out before offering him $50MM.

by Leviticus6688 on Nov 10, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

I’m banking on 26.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 10, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

The case against Aroldis Chapman

All we know about Aroldis Chapman is that he throws 100 mph and has great stuff. Those are obviously great attributes, but how many pitchers have great stuff and fail as major league pitchers? What makes Aroldis Chapman better than Daniel Cabrera? Better than Ryan Anderson? Better than Todd Van Poppel? The list is endless. Guys who had great stuff but just couldn’t figure out how to use it.

One difference is that Chapman will be guaranteed around $40 mil. This means that while the smart thing to do would be to give him ample time in the minors, any team that signs him, including the Yankees, will feel pressured to rush him to the big leagues and let him develop there. This means that there will be flashes of brilliance that will get everyone excited but also long periods of extreme frustration when Chapman is taking a spot in the rotation away from someone more deserving because of his contract.

Another con. Lefties traditionally develop late. That means if you sign this guy for 5 years, 40 mil (just a guess), and he really is 22, he probably won’t even start to realize his potential (if at all) until years 4 and 5. So here you’ve wasted big money for 3 years and as soon as he starts to shine, you have to pay him again.

Last but not least. The Yankees are already in the process of developing 2 starters – Joba and Hughes. There are more projects in Brackman, Betances, etc. in the low minors. There was a time where the Yankees needed to buy prospects because they had none of their own but this is no longer that time.

The Yankees need to keep pursuing pitching prospects through the traditional path – the draft. If someone signs Chapman and gets a huge return, more power to them. He’ll hit free agency when he’s only 28 or 29 and we can get him then.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 10, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Look at how impatient Yankees’ nation has been with both Joba and Hughes. I’m only half-kidding, but it seems like anything less than 7 IP per start and an ERA of 3.00 makes a lot of people believe they aren’t good enough to start and should be in the bullpen. Can you imagine how good a bullpen of Joba, Hughes, and Chapman will be ? (note sarcasm)

Nobody’s mentioning that the level of play in Cuba is comparable to the low minors in the US. Even putting him in AA or AAA is going to be a huge transition for him, yet there will be calls to put him in the majors from day one.

by 3460kuri on Nov 10, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no "Yankee Nation"

We’re an Empire. Leave the nation business to the Red Sox fans.

by PortlandYankee on Nov 10, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Yankees Universe

Evil Empire, Bronx Zoo, whatever you want to call them. 27 time World Champions!!!!

Just no Nation. Thats Blow Sux crap

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 10, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Aroldis ...

Bid him up and let the Sux grab him. I see arm issues from the pics I’ve seen.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 10, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions  

He's nasty

but thats what everybody said about Contreras before. They said that he could be a Cy Young caliber ace in the major leagues. the Yankees overpaid him. And now he’s a joke.

I do want this guy, but if he’s asking for too much money, then let some other team overpay. I do NOT want the Yankees to get in a bidding war (which usually means they win), and waste millions, like with Igawa and Contreras, on a guy who becomes a bust.

Pay the guy right. Just because he can throw 100 mph doesn’t mean he’s a good pitcher. He hasn’t proved anything. And if he’s asking for an unreasonable amount of money, then let him go somewhere else. The Yankees have enough pitching talent to get by without him.

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 10, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

nyrocks29

contereras had family issues i don’t no about this kids situation maybe we need to look a it before shelling out too much money .what u think?

by n.c. yank-fan on Nov 10, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

don't shell out too money at him

regardless of anything. I see he’s a nasty pitcher, but can he continue that in the majors? I don’t know. I hope the Yankees try to get him, but if he wants more than he deserves, the let some other moron pay the extra millions for him. Maybe he will work out and be a star. Maybe he won’t. But big time pitchers don’t come around too often. There is no guarantee this guy will be one and no MLB team will know for sure whether he is until AFTER they pay him. So, try to get him, but if he wants to much, let him go somewhere else.

by nyyrocks29 on Nov 10, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

this guy is 22 in Cuban years

which means he is actually probably like 27

by Brian5517209 on Nov 10, 2009 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

the age thing

is probably accurate for him. i know we’ve been misled by other Cubans, but BA, the amateur baseball authority, truly believes he is 22.

by Travis G on Nov 10, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

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