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World Series Simulation, Game #4

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
NYA
PHI
C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton NYA 62.26%
62.51%
65%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia.  And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter.  Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory.  The simulator has the trio of Teixeira, AROD and Posada all doing very offensively, while only the lefty mashing Jayson Werth sniffing a taste of success for the Phillies.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PHI 4-3
2 PHI 3-2
3 NYA 3-2
4 NYA 4-3
5 PHI 2-1
6 PHI 5-4
7 NYA 4-2
8 NYA 3-1
9 NYA 2-1
10 NYA 5-4
11 NYA 5-3
12 NYA 4-1
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 5-1
15 PHI 4-2
16 PHI 6-5
17 NYA 6-2
18 NYA 6-4
19 NYA 6-3
20 PHI 5-3
21 NYA 4-0
22 NYA 6-5
23 PHI 3-1
24 NYA 3-0
25 NYA 6-1
26 NYA 7-2
27 NYA 5-0
28 PHI 5-2
29 NYA 2-0
30 NYA 7-4
31 NYA 7-3
32 NYA 7-1
33 PHI 6-4
34 PHI 1-0
35 NYA 6-0
36 NYA 1-0
37 PHI 7-6
38 NYA 7-5
39 PHI 4-1
40 NYA 8-1
41 NYA 8-2
42 NYA 8-3
43 PHI 6-3
44 NYA 7-0
45 NYA 8-4
46 NYA 7-6
47 PHI 2-0
48 PHI 6-2
49 NYA 9-2
50 PHI 7-5

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
C.Sabathia 7.1 6.845 2.008 0.694 1.132 3.390
J.Blanton 6.6 5.589 2.117 1.236 1.332 4.915

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 D.Jeter .3298 J.Rollins .3115
2 J.Damon .3429 S.Victorino .3057
3 M.Teixeira .3952 C.Utley .3207
4 A.Rodriguez .3840 R.Howard .3057
5 J.Posada .3655 J.Werth .3307
6 R.Cano .3247 R.Ibanez .3045
7 N.Swisher .3545 P.Feliz .2884
8 M.Cabrera .3051 C.Ruiz .2863
9 C.Sabathia .1340 J.Blanton .1352



0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments  |  Add comment

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I like the score 7-14 range

Good section right there.

If the score turns out to be any less than 15, will you invest in some new technology?

DO WHAT JERRY HAIRSTON DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 1, 2009 7:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dear Simulator guy......

……..

3 more wins to go......Dethroning a paper champion is all I care about. Yea,I said it. You're Welcome.

by ReggieARodJeter on Nov 1, 2009 7:51 AM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

The odds being that decidedly in the Yanks’ advantage makes it even more of a must win for NY.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 1, 2009 10:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm still not sold on the whole simulater thing.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. Anything can happen at any time and you shouldn’t need a computer to tell you that.

Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

by TheMelkman on Nov 1, 2009 12:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about understanding the probable ways the different components of the game fit together.
I like it because it really highlights the value of home field and the starting pitcher.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 1, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

IDK. It's just not my thing

Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

by TheMelkman on Nov 1, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For you and others that aren’t into it, it’s easy to either ignore or follow for entertainment only. I have a lot more simulator stats I could add to these Fanposts but I’d be spending too much time typing. Maybe I should have an automated Fanpost output option. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 1, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why do you need a simulator to highlight the value of home field advantage

and starting pitching? I think anyone who knows anything about baseball is better equipped than a simulator no matter what the amount of stats you plug into it. Read “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Nov 1, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Still

It’s nice to have HAL tell you that he thinks the Yankees are going to win.

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Nov 1, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

So long as he opens the bay doors.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 1, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dave?

Do you really want the Phillies to win Dave?

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Nov 1, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Score #30 Hits

Game #5 simulation up shortly.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 1, 2009 11:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

isn't like, not getting top 5 or anything a Lidge (Fail)?

I mean #30 doesn’t even get you in the AP Poll….

DO WHAT JERRY HAIRSTON DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 1, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yea...

this is fun and all but…. whats the point?

by typhical on Nov 2, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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