The playoffs hinge on Burnett

by Travis G on Oct 8, 2009 4:43 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

Not to put any pressure on the guy (he's our #2 starter in his first postseason ever), but that's how big he'll be, for good or bad.

Of the Yankees' four starters, he has been the most inconsistent in terms of alternating between near-no-hit shutouts and six-run batterings.

For example, take a look at his ER in his last seven starts (in chronological order): 6, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 1.

To drive home that point, he has the highest earned run standard deviation of any Yankee starter (among CC, Pettitte and Joba), almost 19% more inconsistent than the second least consistent, CC Sabathia.

The good news is that Burnett's been better at home this year: 3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .700 OPSa vs. 4.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .757 OPSa on the road.

He's also been significantly better at night: 3.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .665 OPSa vs. 5.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .814 OPSa in the daytime.

Then, of course, we know he's pitched better to Jose Molina.

He'll be at home tomorrow night throwing to Molina, so who are we going to see? Chances are, A.J. will either win or lose the game all by himself.

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I honestly

believe that AJ will be fine tomorrow, I like when he pitches behind CC because he seems to pitch a lot better in my opinion, like he either feed off CC’s performance or he feels the need to prove he can be as good as him, look at his start at Citi Field in June a day after CC had a perfect game going through I think was like 7 innings or something. He pitched great that day he had a no no going for quite a few innings. I know it was months ago and doesn’t mean anything now but I just feel AJ pitches better behind CC.

by Danielle I on Oct 8, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

Boston Killer

Ever since that epic 12-inning 1 run game where Burnett outpitched Beckett, I have known he is a big game pitcher. I believe his electric stuff will be on display tomorrow. And I don’t get all of the bagging on Molina, he gets surprisingly clutch hits on occasion. I don’t mind sacrificing 1 bat to make the difference between a 5-walk 5-run game and a 1-walk 1-run game by Burnett.

by jdorr on Oct 8, 2009 8:50 PM EDT reply actions

+1

What’s worth saying – he’s the lynchpin.

He’s brilliant and manic-depressive – which AJ will show -if, and I think he will, have his Clint Eastwood on
for game #2, we’ll be good. If not, the offense will have to pull its weight.. The Twinkie’s starter is 11-11 but w/a 1.65 ERA in last 4 starts in which they are 4-0.

And they’ll be rested. And they are fighting for their lives.

Girardi will do well to remind the team – not to lift foot from their neck for one inning.

ejs

by ericjs on Oct 9, 2009 12:38 AM EDT reply actions

AJ

I think A.J. will do fne………….the boys fired up. first time in the playoffs,,he’ll make the best of it…………he does get wild at times, but Molina will settle him down……the offence has got to back him up. seems like when AJ pitches they can’t hit the ball………

by PaulaG on Oct 9, 2009 5:47 AM EDT reply actions

the can't

hit the ball when Andy pitches either lol we never give him run support either.

by Danielle I on Oct 9, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Pettite

is not a swing-and-miss pitcher. He pitches to contact, which is why our solid defense helps him so much. AJ is a guy who has stuff good enough to make people completely wiff, which is why he has so many K’s, and that movement is also why he has so many BB’s.

by Wraithpk on Oct 9, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions