Jose v. Jorge
by jscape2000 on Oct 8, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintJoe G. took some of the fire out of this as word has leaked out that Molina will catch AJ Burnett at least during the first round.
One man has an OPS+ of 130 (.285/.363/.522), meaning he was 30% better than average at getting on base and hitting the ball far enough for him to run around the bases. The other has an OPS+ of 49. If he qualified, his .217/.292/.268 would place his OPS behind 4 pitchers with at least 50 ABs (sorry Mike Hampton, you missed the cut).
To me, it's not a rational debate. My great fault is that I want to engage all people rationally, even the irrational.
So I've been thinking about the value of defense in a single game vs. the value of offense in a single game. How much would Posada's defense (or the perception of his game calling/ pitch framing) have to hurt the team to outweigh the obvious merits of his bat? Can the value of Molina (d over o) be greater than the inverse value of Posada?
Jorge will record an out 64% of the time. Jose will record an out 71% of the time. When Jorge reaches base, he averages 2.09 bases; Jose averages 1.07. Assuming that the catchers will get their ABs with one out and none on (when their damage to the Yankees' ability to score is minimized), we can figure out the value of the average Posada hit (about half a run) vs. the average Molina run (about a quarter run).
With Jorge behind the plate, AJ allowed 56 runs in 106 innings pitched, or 0.176 runs/out. With Jose framing the unframable, AJ allowed 23 run over 61 innings pitched, or 0.126 runs/out. Assuming, first and foremost, that the difference in AJ was directly related to who was squatting behind the plate we can give Jose and Jorge credit for the batteries' respective performances. Then, assuming that AJ will pitch six innings regardless of who his catcher is, we know that Molina behind the plate is worth -2.27 runs, while Jorge behind the plate is worth -3.17 runs.
Now we'll just graph out the offensive addition of Jorge and Jose going 0-fer, 1/4, 2/4, 3/4 and 4/4.
And my math teacher told me she didn't think I could pass the Regents exam (true story).
So, if the numbers are believable, then Jorge would need to reach base twice to outperform Jose's (nearly inevitable) 0-fer.
The stats are skewed by Posada catching AJ in his disasters at Fenway. I am repulsed by the idea of grading a catcher worthy or unworthy based on the pitcher's performance rather than his own.
Furthermore, I submit for your anecdotal approval that the Yankees' worst stretch of offensive performance coincided with the loss of Posada's patience in the back of the lineup.
I would never let Molina start in the postseason. But Joe G. is following the logic that correlation indicates causation: AJ has performed better while Jose was behind the dish; therefore, the Jose-AJ battery must be better than the Jorge-AJ battery.
All we can do is hope that Friday's performance follows the season average.
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No Biggie
I dont think it really matters. If AJ is more comfortable palying patch with a finger puppet, DO IT! This is not the first time a catcher has been choosen to call the shots for a pitcher. Pitcher have favorites. Managers have reasons. I dont think that it will hurt to try it out against the Twins. Lets focus on the big picture not the small things. Next we will call for Tex to be sat tomorrow cause he went 0 for 4.
You're working under the assumption...
…that players perform to their statistical level. That’s not how it works.
It’s not strat-o-matic.
Posada is a brutal defensive catcher, he and Burnett clearly have their communication problems, and as I’ve already pointed out elsewhere, if you’re so concerned with stats, Posada has been a below-average offensive player in his postseason career.
It’s not as cut-and-dry as you try to make it.
by New York Sports Jerk on Oct 8, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
Don't bother
With all the stat-whores here it doesn’t matter. They try and metricize a game full of unquantifiable intangibles into a nice data-set with the assumption of being able to be predictive. Not to say stats are not useful, but they are not the end game. To me it is very simple, AJ Burnett is uncomfortable with Jorge catching, for whatever reason. The most important person on that field is your pitcher. If Molina and AJ can keep the Yankees in the game for 6-7 innings without Posada’s bat then we are in good shape. If they cannot, AJ will get the hook and so will Molina. Any other year you may REALLY have a hard time with this call, but considering how potent our offense is 1-9, you can afford to have a superior catcher in for one game and sacrifice a bat. Think of it as a being a NL game with Molina being the pitcher.
“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts – for support rather than for illumination.”
-Andrew Lang
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 8, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I Know, I don't get it...
…they try to reduce the game and players to robot-level.
A player’s mental state CAN and DOES play a role in his performance, anybody who has ever picked up a ball and played competitively knows that.
If Burnett feels more confident pitching to Molina, he’s going to pitch better. If Burnett gives the Yankees a quality start, they’re going to win with or without Posada’s bat.
by New York Sports Jerk on Oct 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
But AJ has thrown gems to Posada and clunkers to Molina. The anecdotal is not as cut and dry as we’re led to believe.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Anecdotal doesn't have to be cut and dry...
…that’s the difference.
The simple factor here is the comfort level of the pitcher. If AJ feels more confident with Molina behind the plate, odds are he’s going to pitch better.
This may or may not be the reality, but it does factor into the decision.
by New York Sports Jerk on Oct 8, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Very simple
AJ is more comfortable pitching to Molina. He has said this. Can throw all the stats in the world up but bottom line is Girardi wants AJ to be as comfortable as possible when he pitches. Why is this so difficult for people to get? So if it makes him “comfortable” then sit Jorge down for 6+ innings. The stats may be ANECDOTAL but in conjunction with AJ’s personal opinion of Posada catching him I think you can clearly see a correlation. If you don’t then I don’t know what to tell you.
Guy: I like sex with women over sex with men. Just look at my erection percentage! It is better with women than men.
Statistician: Yeah but the sample size is too small
Guy: Dude, trust me I like women
Statistician: But you have had a few instances where you did not get erect with women
Guy: Dude, she was 400 lbs
Statistician: Anecdotal
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Statistician: I demand that you have sex with men before claiming to prefer women
Guy: Sure! Go Red Sox!
Facial LaFleur, total facial.
Stat whores?
Let me preface this by saying that in my gut, I think Molina should catch AJ on Friday.
As to the numbers jscape has clearly spent a good deal of time compiling for our consideration (many thanks, jscape!)… it seems to me he has made an error at the point where he inrerprets his graph.
He says, “So, if the numbers are believable, then Jorge would need to reach base twice to outperform Jose’s (nearly inevitable) 0-fer.”
Trouble is, that contradicts the earlier numbers themselves. Statistically speaking, it’s most likely Jose will have a 1-fer. It’s also more statistically likely that Jorge will have a 1-fer than that he will have a 2-fer, though Jorge is pretty much on the bubble in this regard. But even if we’re generous and give Jorge a 2-fer, jscape’s graph indicates there’s actually MORE value in playing Jose over Jorge… which is precisely what Girardi is going to do.
I have no problem with stats, but if we’re going to use them, we all need to be careful to apply them consistently. (And I mean no offense whatsoever, jscape! I really do appreciate sharing your analysis with us.)
Hey, I have crazy ideas all the time- somebody has to shoot me down.
I agree, speaking fairly, their on base percentages are important and I overlooked it.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Small Potatoes
Molina makes me feel comfortable when the Yanks are on defense. Keeping in mind AJ’s slow-ass delivery, Jose’s gun can help neutralize a pesky running game, like the one the Twins have, to a very noticeable degree. He’s not Pudge in his prime, but he’ll cause doubts in runners/the opposing manager’s mind when it comes to stealing. Also, AJ’s stats speak for themselves. He is psychologically more comfortable with Molina, even though he would never dream of saying that to gossip-hogs like us.
With regard to his bat, eh. He would be your one weak spot in the lineup. I think we suck it up and deal with it, because the rest of the lineup is so potent. Once AJ is out, put Posada in for all I care.
How are Jose’s offensive #’s in October, anyway?
Its really not a big deal, brah.
1 bat out of 9 batters won’t be as good as it always is. I still think its worth it to keep AJ’s head in the game and not cause him to overthink it. Besides, once AJ’s out of the game, there’s always time to pinch hit Jorge, who is .364 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs this year as a ph.
Very thoughtful
This is great analysis but it does leave out one thing. There may be a good reason that correlation does imply causation. If Burnett thinks he is better with Molina behind the plate then he may pitch better with Molina behind the plate. Maybe its defense, maybe its calling pitchers, maybe its what Molina says the first time Burnett gives up a run or a few hits. Burnett’s state of mind is probably related to his performance so I think having Molina catch him is worth the offensive sacrifice (since Posada would need two hits to make up the difference if it exists).
maybe
Molina can dig his curveball out of the ground where as Jorge will just jog to it. Same way Tek cannot catch Wake, he just can’t catch that knuckle. It is what it is. Instead of analyzing why, Girardi simply said it is this way, instead of forcing it we will bend to it.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Also,
I think we have to assume Girardi knows things that we don’t, hard as that may be to believe. That doesn’t make him right automatically or immune to criticism but it is worth considering.
Jorge is a hot head, obstinante and cantankerous
Starting pitchers are delicate little flowers that get to eat sunflower seeds 4 days out of 5. As Jorge gets older his grumpy old man thing might not work so well. Jorge is a stud, I love him as a player. But I love the Yankees more and if pulling him out of a single game helps the Yankees then so be it. I loved Bernie too, but not resigning him was the right thing to do for the team.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 8, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Stats go out the window ...
This isn’t a statistical discussion. It’s a “who feels comfortable with whom” discussion. Simply stated, AJ feels more at ease with Molina over Posada. No one is questioning Posada’s overall ability. He’s arguably got a legitimate shot at the hall, and fits beautifully in the lengthy lineup of former Yankee catching greats.
But we are talking about post-season play when everything gets magnified. Burnett has never pitched in the post-season, and has struggled mightily to master his hellacious stuff. Posada too has struggled defensively with Burnett. I give credit to Burnett for stepping up and potentially taking a hit for saying he’d rather throw to Molina than one of the Yankee greats. He wants to win. Period.
Personally, anything that can be done to placate Burnett on days he’s pitching (including having the starting lineup wearing thongs) should be seriously considered. If we are to go deep into post-season, we need Burnett to be successful.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
Perception
A sociologist famously said: If a man perceives a situation as real, it IS real in its consequences. Or, in this case, if AJ believes he pitches better with Molina behind the plate, then he WILL pitch better. Statistics cannot measure motivations or human emotions. And after Jorge’s preformance last night he might be better off showing a little humility.
"Statistics cannot measure motivations or human emotions"
For now.
I’ll have you know that I’m working on anew metric.
MCARC – “Man Crushes Above Replacement Catchers”
Facial LaFleur, total facial.
Chip Caray is in love with Derek Jeter
Metric that one…
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
Reminds me of that Bull Durham line
spoken by Crash Davis (a catcher, incidentally): “If you believe you’re playing well because you’re getting laid, or because you’re not getting laid, or because you wear women’s underwear, then you ARE!”
Faulty analysis
The sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful statistical conclusions. The opponents when AJ pitched with Jorge vs Jose as catcher was not even considered.
Burnett faced Boston 4 times during the season. His ERA for those 4 games was collectively greater than 8.0. Jorge caught all of those games. Pitching against Boston is a tad more difficult than pitching against Baltimore or most other Yankee opponents. So naturally Jorge’s “catching ERA” is going to be higher by virtue of the opponents he faced rather than some perceived faulty defensive skills. 1 of those 4 games was a 7 inning shutout. So where were the defensive problems during that game? Using a bad statistical analysis to make a point doesn’t really make the point.
You know whats better than a stat?
When a pitcher says… “I feel more comfortable pitching to Molina”.
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 8, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If Yogi could move why can't Jorge?
Yogi played first base and the outfield so they could get his bat in the lineup and play Elston Howard, Joe Dimaggio moved to right field for Mickey Mantle,Mantle moved for Murcer,Bernie was moved to left field so we could play Melky in center more. Why there is this notion that Posada should have some say in how much and where he plays just makes no sense to me. He is still a great hitter but he is no longer an elite catcher and as much as we might want to think he is it is obvious he is not. I don’t care if he is mad because it is supposed to be about the team and the fact is that Jose Molina is a far better CATCHER than Jorge. Not HITTER but Catcher and if the game is lost due to the fact that Molina is catching then a whole lot of people will have not done their jobs.
Still
Overall I don’t blame Jorge for this, I blame AJ. I don;t give a rats ass what their career postseason stats are, kinda like A-Rod last night…didn’t mean all that much did it?
Posada > Molina overall. You’d have to be a fool not to realize that. Statistically, or whatever way you want to realize it, Molina is a horrible hitter. Jorgey is an average catcher, give or take an idiotic brainfart.
I blame AJ Burnett for this. CC has done fine. Andy Pettite has made a career of dominance with Jorge behind the plate.
I don’t like Jorge’s ""outburst"" with the media, but I agree with it. Jorge is better than Molina and AJ’s ‘preference’ for Molina has made this team overal worse for game 2. They had better win this game cuz Molina sure as hell at the plate isn’t gonna help.
I do have my crow ready to be thawed out if Molina does get a clutch hit :)
What the f$%k is the internet?
**Jorgey is an average catcher behind the plate, Great catcher at the plate.
What the f$%k is the internet?
Except in the playoffs...
…when he’s below-average in both areas.
by New York Sports Jerk on Oct 9, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
JOSE and Jorge
Jscapes stats are interesting but not complete.
According to Stats LLC data-Burnett went 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA and .270 opponents batting average in 16 starts with Posada behind the plate. He was 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA and .221 opponents batting average in 11 starts with Molina catching
This is the most revealing data to consider not Jorges better batting skills. Also look at the data and then consider Jorges performance last night with numerous defensive lapses. If Jorge permitted passed balls like that it would tear the heart out of AJ and the Twins would clobber us in a few innings.The rift between them would never be able to be fixed.
Good pitching beats good hitting and AJ needs a catcher he has confidence in and who bolsters his confidence.It should be obvious that Jorge just is too stubborn to change his bad habits, poor framing of the pitches and lack of leadership when it gets tough. We need AJ to win with his arm and head and not Jorge with his bat
It doesn't matter
what we think. All that matters is what Mr. Girardi thinks and what he wants to do with the team he is managing. Obviously, there are those of us who agree with his decision, because he wants to win. Those that disagree have their own valid reasons, but ultimately this is between Joe, Jorge, and AJ.
It’s just unfortunate, to me, that Jorge said anything that sounded pouty or pissed or however it may have been perceived (I thought his statements were the opposite of the class we’ve come to expect from the Yankees players and how they speak of each other and the team to the media, so pouty and bitchy and pissed is how I perceived that).
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