Blanton to start Game 4 for Phillies

Phillies are making a big mistake hare I think. Sure, they have a favorable matchup with Lee against AJ in game 5, but it also means they only throw him twice and they would have…gulp…Cole Hamels on the mound for a potential Game 7. CC vs. Cole Hamels? Who do you guys take in that one.

If we do wind up winning the World Series, it could very well be because of this move.

Joe Torre considered using a three-man rotation but decided it would weaken the entire fence, not just one link. Since Game One in 96 was rained out and not played until Sunday, Pettite started against Smoltz in Game 1 and then Torre was OBLIGATED to start him on three-days rest in Game 5 because there was no off-day for travel from NY to Atlanta. It went Pettite, Key, Cone, Rogers, Pettite, Key. Torre’s intention was that if there was to be a Game 7 Cone should start it. The series went Sunday through Thursday, then an off day, with Jimmy Key Pitching on full rest in the clincher on Saturday October 26th 1996. Pettite was 24 at the time but Torre had no intention of using him on three-days rest. He simply wound up having to due to the weather. Sabathia is 29 now and can certainly start on three-days rest, but this means that Burnett and Pettite will have no choice but to pitch on three-days rest as well. I can see how that would have an effect on Pettite because he’s 37 (that alone is enough reason) and even if he’s not a hard thrower a short rest would undoubtedly signify a decrease in velocity for him and he gets a lot of fly ball outs on high fastballs and cutters because of the way he properly uses his off-speed pitches to set up the high fastball. He pitches higher in the strike zone than most people think (cutter and fastballs, usually in the high to low nineties, even 92) and if that velocity is decreased it may be easier for those hitters to get on top of those pitches. Even if it’s the pattern and the pitch that get the lazy fly ball out it’s not as easy to get with a drop-off in velocity. Burnett has a sinker which he almost never uses along with a rarely-see change up. Burnett was already losing 2-4 mph off his pitches in the third inning last night and that’s cause he throws only two pitches mainly, fastball and curve. If Burnett’s consistently in the low 90’s (90-92) I see that as a problem and if he goes on three-days rest he should use the sinker and pitch to contact more. His sinker comes in at about 92-93. Obvioiusly the idea is to have CC pitch in the 7th game if it comes down to one but if that negatively affects the other pitchers I have to question if it’s worth it. I suppose that now that we know that Cliff Lee won’t be starting Game 4 we could simply theorize that even a below standard CC should be enough to beat Joe Blanton cause he won’t shut us down like Lee might. We used to hit Blanton pretty hard when he was in the AL. He pitches to contact and throws strikes like Jon Lieber. The best thing that could happen is to pitch CC in Game 5 and Gaudin in Game 4 (Gaudin is not a slouch. He struck out thirteen in a game earlier in the year when he was with SD. He averaged about a strikeout an inning as a starter and long man with the Pads. He has a great slider) and then we get a couple of days of rain in New York so Burnett can pitch Game 6 and CC in Game 7 on normal rest. My main concerns are Burnett and Pettite on short rest. It’s risky.

I start CC on short rest regardless in game 4. He showed he can handle it, and we need him available for game 7.

However, if we are up 3-1, I start Gaudin/Aceves in game 5. Why throw Burnett on 3 days rest against Lee who will probably pitch great if we don’t have to. This way Burnett is rested for game 6 and Andy (4 days) and CC (3 days) are both available for game 7 (which hopefully won’t be needed).

If it’s 2-2, I think I roll the dice with AJ in game 5.

If Pettitte wins game 3, then I think we should go with Gaudin in Game 4. A Gaudin/Blanton matchup is pretty much a 50/50 shot at a win, and the Yankee offense seems to do well in Gaudin’s starts. Gaudin can go 4-5 innings and you can empty the bullpen in support of him, because you know CC will give you innings in game 5. Worst case, if we lose both of those games we still go back to Yankee Stadium with AJ and Andy on full rest with CC available in relief in Game 7.

If we lose game 3, then its a no brainer – CC has to pitch in game 4 to make sure this series gets back to NY. Can’t take a chance in those 50/50 matchups I talked about above.

I think the only way all 3 starters pitch on short rest is if Joe is forced to do it by facing elimination. Game 3 is HUGE…