World Series Simulation, Game #3

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 12:32 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	NYA	52.83%	46.70%	52.40%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... It looks like according to Vegas, the Yankees are going to be favored in every game of this series. Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites to win Game #3, while my simulator has the Phillies as slight favorites. The spread between Vegas and my simulator is around 6%. AccuScore and Vegas both match in terms of win probability. AccuScore is predicting a much higher scoring game as their over/under is sitting at 10.6, while both Vegas and my simulator have the over/under slightly over 9 runs. So far in this series my simulator and Vegas have each been the most correct one time and AccuScore has been the least correct in both games.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	PHI 5-4
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	NYA 3-2
7	PHI 6-5
8	PHI 4-2
9	NYA 5-4
10	PHI 5-3
11	NYA 4-2
12	PHI 3-1
13	NYA 5-3
14	PHI 5-2
15	NYA 2-1
16	NYA 5-2
17	PHI 4-1
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 3-1
20	NYA 6-5
21	PHI 6-4
22	NYA 4-1
23	PHI 7-6
24	PHI 5-1
25	PHI 6-2
26	NYA 6-3
27	PHI 6-3
28	NYA 6-2
29	NYA 5-1
30	NYA 7-5
31	NYA 7-4
32	PHI 7-4
33	PHI 6-1
34	NYA 7-6
35	PHI 3-0
36	PHI 7-2
37	NYA 7-3
38	PHI 8-7
39	PHI 7-3
40	PHI 1-0
41	NYA 7-2
42	PHI 7-1
43	NYA 6-1
44	PHI 2-0
45	PHI 7-5
46	PHI 4-0
47	NYA 2-0
48	NYA 8-5
49	NYA 1-0
50	PHI 8-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Pettitte	6.5	5.384	2.508	0.839	1.406	4.375
C.Hamels	6.9	6.031	1.555	0.928	1.262	3.877

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3412	J.Rollins	.3478
2	J.Damon	.3173	S.Victorino	.3453
3	M.Teixeira	.3906	C.Utley	.3656
4	A.Rodriguez	.3735	R.Howard	.3583
5	J.Posada	.3563	J.Werth	.3790
6	R.Cano	.3223	R.Ibanez	.3489
7	J.Hairston	.3036	P.Feliz	.3292
8	M.Cabrera	.2971	C.Ruiz	.3167
9	A.Pettitte	.1435	C.Hamels	.1656

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Comments

Interesting... favored at Philly

I’m fairly confident with Pettitte on the mound and us facing Hamels who has not been his best this season. If our lineup comes to play then we will win. We need to take at least 1, preferably 2, in Philly. Let’s win this one to take some of the pressure off.

by YankeesRock on Oct 30, 2009 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Your simulator is useless

Everytime I see one of these posts I will respond with this.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How long does it take to sim 100k games?

by Scooby Snacks on Oct 30, 2009 2:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The same amount of times it takes

me to guess at scores
Here let me show you.

Game #3 Simulations
Yankees win 51%
Top 10 scores
1) Yankees 4 – 3
2) Yankees 5 – 4
3) Yankees 6 – 4
4) Phillies 8 – 6
5) Yankees 10 – 7
6) Philies 3 – 2
7) Yankees 5 – 1
8) Phillies 3 – 1
9) Yankees 8 – 3
10) Phillies 6 – 3

Anyone who takes any stock in the simulator stuff is crazy.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

About 10-15 minutes, depending on how high scoring the game(s) are. Then 5 minutes to edit a new FanPost. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still haven't shown me one iota of past predictive accuracy to warrant anything other than a

Whateva guy.. good luck wit dem stimulations.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, no problem. I don’t need your approval. Take care and enjoy the W.S.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good for you

But unless your “Simulator” can be proven to have a predictive accuracy beyond a coin flip it basically is useless and I hate to say it, a waste of your time. But hey, to each their own. I

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even if it did, which it may, I wouldn’t tell you. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why you FAIL

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How come none of these scores say

NYA 152-0?

If I was a betting man, I’d bet the house on that score…

DO WHAT JERRY HAIRSTON DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by FreeBradshaw on Oct 30, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he forgot to add the

Mystique and Destiny stat into his Quantum Computer dataset matrix?

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thinking about sample size… Did you sim the season (or multiple seasons)? How accurate were the sims?
Related: how often have the sim favorites won in the postseason?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 30, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ve simulated all seasons from 2002 to 2009 (regular season only). I have simulated most of the post season games for 2009. Accuracy in terms of how many of the “sim” favorites have won really doesn’t tell you much. The best way to measure is to use the simulation results against the Vegas line, while coming up with a betting method which bets more the larger the discrepancy is between the sim and vegas odds. So to just look at a sample and say the simulator picked the winner X% of the time doesn’t tell you anything meaningful. These results are all proprietary. :) But I feel confident in saying that it’s very accurate, of course not accurate enough to make me a millionaire (yet). But it does find inefficiencies in the Vegas lines, especially when one of the starting pitchers has a luck or unlucky based ERA. Examples of that this year would be Matt Cain or J.A. Happ.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow that is an awesome explanation

and simple too!

So to just look at a sample and say the simulator picked the winner X% of the time doesn’t tell you anything meaningful

You are ABSOLUTELY right. Your simulator doesn’t tell us anything meaningful.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Troll, Troll

Go away, come and troll another day.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 31, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Call me a troll all you want

I ask you for simple proof that your “Simulator” has any past predictive accuracy and you keep ducking it like a bean ball. So since you obviously have no proof whatsoever that your simulator can do anything… I ask again… what. is. the. point. Since you cannot show any numbers, well then I guess you better have a little thicker skin if someone is gonna call you out based on your quasi-statistical predictive model. I find your posts about your “simulator” self aggrandizing and you have yet to show anyone that it is worth one penny more than flipping said penny.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 31, 2009 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher

will probably be back in there in Game 3. It was nothing permanent, taking him out of the lineup in favor of Hairston. It was to give him a day to clear his head. I will be VERY surprised if Swisher is out of the lineup in Game 3, especially against the lefty Hamels.

Hopefully A-Rod gets going again. While A-Rod and Tex both had great seasons this year, did anyone really see them getting hot at the same time a whole lot? Maybe toward the end of the year, but it always seemed like when one was hot, the other was cold. Thats been the way in the playoffs. Tex struggled the first two rounds, and now Tex is getting it going again while Alex is in a “mini” slump.

If these two get hot at the same time, there’s no better 3-4 combo in baseball.

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 30, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, let me know when you hear who starts in the 3 OF spot. Hard to predict what Girardi is going to do sometimes. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 30, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep checking Pinstripe Alley for all your postseason updates :)

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 30, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Finally posts more annoying than my Dear (Blank) letters

But FYI to everyone, I love doing the letters because they keep me on meds when someone on my tea is pissing me off,

3 more wins to go......Dethroning a paper champion is all I care about. Yea,I said it. You're Welcome.

by ReggieARodJeter on Oct 30, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by FreeBradshaw on Nov 1, 2009 7:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

48th most likely score on an 8-5 game is normal, especially when the over/under was only 9 runs. It’s all a matter of probability and game score distributions.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 1, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs