The Phillies will win if...

by Travis G on Oct 28, 2009 4:53 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

In an attempt to look at the World Series from the opposing viewpoint, The Good Phight's Peter Baker and myself will examine the matchup, but from the side we're not used to discussing.

So while he writes a 'The Yankees will win if...' story, here's mine on the Phils.

The Phillies will win if:

1. CC Sabathia comes back to earth. His postseason ERA in three starts is 1.19. He can't sustain that long term. It will eventually start to move up again, and it's bad news for the Yanks when it does.

2. the Yankees' LOOGYs can't do their job. The Phils lineup is great, but is held together by three extraordinary lefties: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and (to a lesser extent) Raul Ibanez. They're going to get their fair share of big ABs in close games. It's the job of Phil Coke and Damaso Marte to neutralize them (though Utley and Ibanez have actually been better vs. LHP, so it'll be interesting to see what Joe does).

3. Cliff Lee continues his postseason excellence. As good as Sabathia's been, Lee has been even better (.74 ERA in 24.1 ip).

4. Brad Lidge has truly 're-found' himself. Despite a terrible year as Philly's closer, he has yet to allow a run in the playoffs (4 ip, 1 H, 3 BB, 4 K).

5. A-Rod comes back to earth. His 1.516 OPS is unsustainable, and he has been the only Yankee to hit significantly better in the playoffs than the regular season. Even if he only goes back to his normal OPS (.965), it may not be enough unless other batters step up.

6. Chad Gaudin can't pitch at least moderately well. The Phils have better back-end starters, no question. J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton are better than Gaudin, so game four is not looking good at this point.

Ugh. Now I'm depressed for having written this. I definitely think the Yankees are a better team - they just have to play like it.

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Comments

hahah dude

iIm depressed just reading it. I guess that means you did a good job.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 28, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

*I'm

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 28, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

haha agreed

well written post. I liked the, “I definitely think the Yankees are the better team. They just have to play like it.” amen brotha. The Yankees are a better team in every aspect. Better offense (slightly), better bullpen (no doubt), better starters (close, not as deep but 2 and 3 are def better). The Yankees play good defense, run the bases well, and generally all around play great baseball which got them 103 regular season wins and 7 playoff wins. We play our game, we win…however that doesn’t always happen especially in a series of only 7 game. You just never know and that worries me. I do not want this season to end no matter what but it better end the right way or I will cry.

by dyanks10 on Oct 28, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Or if..

The Yankees lineup (non A-Rod/Jeter/Posada division) continues to hit the way it did in the ALDS and ALCS.

Also, Lee hasn’t been much better than Sabathia. Both have 3 starts, CC has 3 wins to Lee’s 2. Lee has 2.1 more IP and 3 fewer H allowed. Same # of SO and BB. Lee gave up 4 runs, 2 earned and CC gave up 4 runs, 3 earned.
I call it a push, maybe a slight edge to Lee.

by gwc3 on Oct 28, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions